Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
970 FXUS65 KGGW 191004 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 304 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Areas of dense fog and sprinkles this morning will proceed some clearing by the evening. - Mild temperatures continue through this weekend. - Colder air moves in Monday night that is expected to linger through Thanksgiving. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Dense fog has materialized and expanded overnight across the Hi- Line, down into higher elevations of McCone and Richland counties. Models like the ConShort have identified the affected area well and show improvement starting in Phillips county after 12Z, continuing east by around 16Z when the current Dense Fog Advisory expires. However, an extension would be necessary if the frontal passage does not help to mix the lower levels out well or as quickly this morning. A complex upper level pattern over the western states will generally keep Montana under a ridge into the weekend. This maintains above normal temperatures and dry weather through the weekend. Models and ensembles are increasingly pointing toward a pattern change early next week with much colder temperatures. There are wide variations in precipitation potential in the models and ensembles at this time for next week, with potential that northeast Montana stays mostly dry if the storm track stays far enough southeast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Stuck with the base forecast, except for adding detail today using higher resolution guidance for the fog, winds and light precipitation chances. Confidence is moderate to high for little further expansion of the fog this morning and improving visibilities before 18Z. There is relatively low confidence on the magnitude of the colder air and precipitation amounts for next week. -JEZ && .AVIATION... Update Time: 1000Z Flight Category: Mostly MVFR-VFR, after areas of VLIFR-IFR in morning fog Synopsis: Low clouds have found their way to the ground as dense fog for most areas along/north of the Missouri River, to include KGGW and KOLF. This is expanding toward KSDY and KGDV, but there is moderate confidence for IFR fog to occur there later this morning. A frontal passage this morning gives high confidence for fog to clear from west to east between 14-18Z, but MVFR ceilings will be common into the afternoon before clearing follows this evening. Look for NW winds behind the frontal passage today of 10-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts. EQUIPMENT: KOLF`s ASOS telecomm circuit is down and can not be dialed into. Therefore, AMD NOT SKED for this TAF until repairs can be made. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Eastern Roosevelt-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Richland- Western Roosevelt. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow