Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
977 FXUS65 KGGW 150910 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 210 AM MST Wed Jan 15 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Above normal non-freezing temps for highs will continue through Thursday. 2) The next cold front will arrive Thursday night. Progressively colder arctic temps are then expected into the weekend before a possible warm up Tuesday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridging will lead to chinook warming over the Northern High Plains through the midweek with mid to high cloudiness. Highs could reach into the the 40s which is about 15 to 20 degrees above normal through Thursday. The next frontal system looks to approach Thursday with southwest surface winds out ahead of it. Expected strong winds behind the cold front through Friday with significant CAA. Widespread Cold Advisories may be possible over the weekend with temps 20 to 30 degrees below normal before a warm up to near normal on Tuesday. Snow chances will increase slightly(15-25%) Friday, but total look far lower than previous forecasts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence in the above normal warmth and then arctic cold outbreak is high. Snow chances or totals is low. Main deviations... MinRH was switch for today and Thursday. Used a mix of NBM with ConsMOS for MinRH as BC data is currently out of touch with chinook heat for the next couple afternoons. Winds for this afternoon was also a 50/50 blended of NBM/NBM90. GAH && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0800Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR DISCUSSION: Mid to upper level clouds are expected across the area through the cycle from a chinook arch. LLWS: Low level wind shear is possible at the terminals through roughly 18Z this morning. Wind Shear may be able to return again Thursday afternoon and evening. WIND: W at 5 to 15 kts through this morning. Increasing to 15 to 25 Gusting to 30 kts this afternoon. Calming to 5 to 15 kts this evening. Backing SW and becoming light Thursday morning. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow