609
FXUS65 KGGW 252018
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
218 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Warm and dry weather look to continue through Wednesday.

2) A strong cold front will push through the region on Thursday
with growing support for severe weather across NE Montana Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper ridging will prevail through Wednesday with warm and dry
weather. As the ridge axis slides east and an upper low moves in
from the west along with a surface cold front. This will turn the
upper flow more southwesterly. NBM guidance shows surface dew
points rising into the 60s Thursday afternoon with increasing low
level southeast flow. The mean surface based CAPE over eastern
portions of the CWA looks to reach 2000 J/KG or better by Thursday
afternoon and evening while forecast soundings show 40-50 kts of
0-6 km shear present. This will all set the stage for the return
of active severe weather across NE Montana, especially during
afternoon and evening hours.

Cooler weather is expected for Friday and Saturday behind the
cold front, but lingering instability may provide support for
isolated showers and thunderstorms at times.

Longer term, ensembles point to a ridge pattern developing over
the weekend and another round of active weather early next week as
the next trough approaches.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

The forecast followed NBM with little in the way of deviations
made at this time. As Thursday enters the near term, mesoscale
detail may allow for a more refined forecast than what consensus
blends might offer.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue tonight into Wednesday
with high pressure over the region. Chances for precipitation will
increase Wednesday night into Thursday.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow