040
FXUS65 KGGW 022051
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
251 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Scattered thunderstorms are expected between 4pm and midnight
with heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds possible.

2) An active pattern is expected to remain in place next week with
chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing at times and
seasonable temperatures.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Isolated thunderstorms are already beginning to develop and will
become more scattered this afternoon and evening. HREF shows a
concentrated corridor from Valley County southeast to Dawson
County. The main concerns include heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning but an isolated wind gust over 50 mph cannot be ruled
out.

Higher resolution model data continues to show some support of low
concentrations of smoke in the vicinity over the next day,
especially east, so will continue to monitor.

Meanwhile, zonal or southwest flow over the next few days will
accompany an active weather pattern along with seasonable
temperatures over all. Longer term ensembles in fact point to a
decreasing trend in temperatures toward next weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NBM was largely followed this forecast cycle and handled
expectations well. Confidence remains high on thunderstorm chances
today but low on exact timing and locations. Lower confidence also
exists on where patchy smoke may present, though greater chances
look to exist off to the east into North Dakota per latest HRRR
smoke guidance.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: August 2, 2025 at 2045Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION:
VFR conditions will continue to prevail tonight. That said,
scattered thunderstorms may produce brief IFR/MVFR visibilities
and reduced ceilings. Patchy haze and smoke may also present at
times.

WIND: Expect light and variable winds overall tonight, though
gusty and shifting winds are possible near storms.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow