305
FXUS65 KGGW 150911
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
311 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible,
  mainly across areas south of the Missouri River this evening.

- Early summer conditions continue through the week with warm
  temperatures and chances for afternoon and evening
  thunderstorms.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A southwest flow aloft with relative deep moisture in place will
continue to keep the area under subtle chances of strong to severe
storms for the next couple days.

A shortwave is expected to eject across the region during the afternoon
to provide large-scale ascent, while boundary layer lingers over southern
Montana. Southeast low level flow continues to push higher dewpoints
(mid 50s to low 60s) into eastern Montana, for higher confidence of
isolated heavy rain from thunderstorms along with strong winds and
large hail.

Morning convection could have an impact of development of storms later
today across the northern zones, increasing the focus on the already
favored southern portions of the CWA.

This patter with the upper ridge over the region, and shortwaves of
various strength moving through the ridge will continue through the
end of the week. This will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Montana.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Being that we`re conditionally unstable through tonight, placement
and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are of low confidence. There
is a bit better confidence of rainshowers/thunderstorms over the southern
zones.

Otherwise, generally went with NBM but blended in CAMS with pops through
Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with occasional MVFR with thunderstorms.

Early morning scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
moving across the region through around 16z. A few showers may
linger through the day, with another round of widespread
thunderstorms expected this evening.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow