139
FXUS65 KGGW 162005
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
205 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Slow warming and drying trend will take hold over the region
through the next week.

2) There is a low chance (<25%) of thunderstorms Thursday that
could produce some severe wind gusts or hail late in the evening.

3) Conditions will be favorable for periods of light rain
Thursday and then again each day from Saturday through the end of
the forecast period.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
As precipitation and the deep low pressure system that brought it
about continues to depart eastern Montana and move into the
Dakotas, warmer conditions due to a thickening atmospheric column
(higher pressure) moves in to take its place. It is this pattern
that will bring about more seasonal temperatures through the
forecast. Embedded in that overall pattern will be some quick
moving disturbances that are forecast to bring periodic light
precipitation to eastern Montana even with the warmer
temperatures. The most potentially impactful of these disturbances
looks to be late Thursday, where the warming surface with
remaining colder air aloft could be conducive to low chances for
severe thunderstorms after peak heating occurs, with wind and hail
being the primary threat.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Through the rest of the week, confidence remains moderate to high
(60-80%) with respect to a warming trend back to near normal
temperatures for July, and with the existence of rain potential
Thursday night into Friday. Low confidence (<25%) of severe
thunderstorms on Thursday. Beyond Friday, especially with respect
to precipitation chances daily from Saturday through early next
week, confidence is low to moderate (20-40%) in occurrence due to
ensemble spread.

Cliff

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2000Z on July 16, 2025

Expected Flight Category: VFR-MVFR

Synopsis: Warming and drying trend expected for the region through
the next several days. There is low to moderate (20-40%) of some
light visibility reduction overnight due to wildfire smoke near
the surface, but would not be enough to impact flight category.
Lower clouds move in Thursday morning and could take flight
category down to MVFR through early afternoon.

Winds: Southeast winds will remain across the region through
Thursday. Expect wind speeds to range from 5-10 kts through early
Thursday before increasing to 10-15 kts Thursday afternoon.

Cliff

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow