635
FXUS65 KGGW 160758
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
158 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Rain will diminish today as upper trough moves through eastern
Montana.

2) Temperatures will be cool today and gradually warm to near
normal by this weekend.

3) A shortwave trough will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Moist WSW flow will that have brought widespread rain to most of
NE Montana since Tuesday night will get pushed to the SE this
morning as an upper trough moves through eastern Montana. By 18z,
the flow aloft will shift a drier NW flow aloft and the rain will
gradually diminish today from NW to SE across the region.

Temperatures will be somewhat warmer than yesterday as skies
partially clear during the day. Shortwave ridge will bring dry
weather tonight. Moist ground may allow some fog to develop
overnight.

Temperatures will be warmer on Thursday ahead of the next
shortwave trough that will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms starting in the afternoon in the north and spreading
across the entire forecast area Thursday evening. The highest
chances for measurable rain will be in the NE (up to 70%) with
the lowest chance in the SW (around 20%). The system moves to the
east late Thursday night and Friday will be mainly dry except for
a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms near the
Canadian Border with a wave moving through the Canadian Prairies.

Temperatures warm to near normal this weekend with chances for
showers and thunderstorms at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is high for cool weather today and the overall trend of
the rain diminishing. Confidence is low on the specific timing of
when the rain will diminish today and whether or not any fog will
form tonight. Went somewhat slower than the NBM timing for
diminishing the rain today to better blend in the nearby offices
forecast. There were no other changes from the NBM at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0800Z on July 16, 2025

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR most of the time today with occasional MVFR.
VFR tonight except where any fog develops.

DISCUSSION:
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue early
this morning and gradually diminish between 12z and 18z today. VFR
conditions are expected most of the time but low clouds will bring
occasional MVFR ceilings and showers could reduce visibilities at
times. Any clearing in the skies that occurs today will quickly be
filled with daytime cumulus. Areas of mid and high clouds are
expected tonight. Patchy fog is possible with the moist ground but
confidence is too low to mention in the forecast.
Winds: Look for NE winds 5 to 10 knots early veering east after
sunrise and SE this afternoon. SE winds will continue tonight at 5
to 10 knots.



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow