644
FXUS65 KGGW 131958
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
158 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected across the
southwest zones late this afternoon/early evening. Large hail will
be the greatest threat, but brief heavy downpours, strong/damaging
winds and deadly lightning will also acompany these storms.

2) Active weather is expected over the next several days with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times. The
highest precipitation totals over the next two days will be south
of the Missouri River.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Ingredients have come together this afternoon to develop scattered
thunderstorms that will enter our area from the west this
afternoon, affecting mainly Petroleum and Garfield counties, with
a smaller chances in Phillips and Prairie counties. The HREF 2-5
km Updraft Helicity values were very high from 22z-00z (deep
purple = near 500) so these storms mean business.

Look for diurnal heating to wane and shower and thunderstorm
activity to dissipate late tonight.

With SW flow continuing through the weekend and low-level
instability in place, chances for thunderstorms continue with also
having a severity element too. Consult info from SPC for more
information.

Pattern for showers/thunderstorms continue into early next week
then an upper ridge may bring more stable conditions by mid-week.
Temperature will warm slightly but Tuesday looks to be the coolest
over the next seven days.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence of temperatures and precipitation is average through
the period. Went mainly with NBM for all elements through the
period. TFJ

&&

.AVIATION...

Updated: 2000Z Friday, June 13th.

Flight Category: MVFR/VFR.

PATTERN: Ceilings at MVFR/VFR through this evening may lower back
to generally MVFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move
into the area by evening, but the strongest storms are expected to
remain to the south and west of the TAF sites.

WINDS: E or SE at generally 10 kts or less. But gusty and erratic
wind gusts will occur near thundertorms. TFJ

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow