978
FXUS65 KGGW 020544
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1144 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable temperatures and mainly dry conditions will prevail
  through the weekend.

- Monday looks to feature markedly warmer temperatures with highs
  in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Synoptic Setup:

A band of reflectivity has shown up overnight across southern tier
zones, but is mostly virga as no recent observations have
indicated measurable precipitation. Have introduced a band of
silent or in some cases slight chance pop into Friday lifting
north with a weak warm front.

The next shortwave will move in Friday night into Saturday as
northwest flow aloft gets established over NE Montana. Look for
somewhat cooler weather on Saturday. A stray shower is possible
but most should remain dry.

Ensembles show upper ridging moving in from the west into early
next week. This will lead to warming temperatures and highs in the
afternoon returning into the 70s and 80s. The warm up will be
short lived however with the next trough approaching for Tuesday
with highs a few degrees lower.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NBM was largely considered for the forecast cycle, though
deviations were made in some instances. For one, Friday morning
lows were reduced a few degrees in places across northeast zones
where the Thursday night drop was running ahead of schedule.

Otherwise, pops were also adjusted upward given the radar
presentation and weak front. Trends will need to be monitored for
additional tweaks, several model guidance solutions such as the
NAM Nest and various high resolution models lend support to
isolated showers. Little if any QPF is expected to result from
these low confidence showers.


&&

.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATED: 0514z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Cloud heights are expected to fluctuate throughout the day Friday,
but should remain in VFR conditions. Isolated showers are possible
mainly over KGDV and KSDY, but confidence remains low.

WIND: Surface winds will begin increasing Friday morning out of
the southeast, veering to the south during the afternoon and
becoming light and variable by Friday night. Some gusty
conditions are possible at KGGW but will be more concentrated in
KSDY and KGDV. There is a small chance of LLWS Friday morning in
the KGDV area.

KENZ


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow