038
FXUS65 KGGW 250846
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
Issued by National Weather Service Billings MT
246 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Potential for severe thunderstorms over northeast Montana today
  and Thursday.

- Temperatures will continue to warm through Thursday, with slight
  cooling into the weekend.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An upper trough over the western states will increase southwest
flow through midweek. With high pressure dropping into the upper
midwest, low level southeast return flow will spread moisture into
the region. This will lead to warming temperatures and an
increasing chance for thunderstorms. Looking at modeled CAPE and
short term convective ensembles, today from around 3-8pm will
have the focus for an isolated strong to severe wind threat. This
will be mainly near the North Dakota border. Limiting factors for
the severe threat are lack of shear and significant forcing to
work with. This scenario is not favorable for a widespread wetting
rain for our area, with fast-moving isolated cells.

Shortwave pushing out of the upper trough on Thursday will bring
cooling temperatures aloft, for steep deep-layer lapse rates. With
a weak surface trough over eastern Montana to provide for stronger
instability, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible in the late afternoon and evening.

Behind this shortwave the upper flow flattens out, dropping
temperatures slightly into the weekend. The potential for
occasional thunderstorms will continue into the weekend. By
Monday, an upper ridge builds into the Great Basin with
temperatures warming again. The position of the surface high over
the region will generally keep the region dry.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

The NBM was largely maintained for the current forecast cycle.
Confidence is high on the warming trend for temperatures this week
and low to medium on the timing of any shower and thunderstorm
chances, as there is a low predictability in the timing and track
of specific shortwaves in the flow. Confidence is moderate, but
increasing for marginal severe storm potential for today and
Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail, aside from brief MVFR around KGDV and
this morning associated with thunderstorms. There is moderate
confidence for minor impacts tonight from erratic/gusty winds with
scattered thunderstorms to KGDV and later KSDY. Elsewhere, look
for quiet conditions with scattered mid-level clouds.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow