494
FXUS65 KGGW 011945
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
145 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Northerly winds will bring smoke south into the area tonight and
  Tuesday.

- Cold front looks to bring scattered showers/thunderstorms early
  Tuesday (mainly northeast zones) with much cooler conditions by
  Wednesday.

- Another cold front Thursday with stronger winds.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
The cold front this afternoon continues to move south and at 2pm
is approaching the Trans Canada highway. Cumulus has developed
ahead of the front north and east of Glasgow and isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible as CAPE is about 500-800 J/kg.
Models have done a poor job lately of catching onto the afternoon
convection.

A fairly strong closed low pressure system will swing through
central Canada on Tuesday, as it tracks toward the Great Lakes.
This will drop the cold front into Montana. The northerly flow
will allow Canadian smoke to filter south into the area tonight
and Tuesday.

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, mainly near
the North Dakota border with the front. A second front is
expected on Thursday and this one looks to have some stronger
winds behind it.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Had to increase pops for the next two afternoons as the NBM (and
most models) not picking up on the afternoon showers/thunderstorms.
Rest of forecast went mainly with NBM. TFJ


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED: 1945Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR, but visibility reduction is possible in
smoke late tonight/Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION: Cumulus clouds have developed again this afternoon,
some growing into isolated showers and thunderstorms. Gusty and
erratic winds will be possible in and near any of these.

Another round of showers/thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
afternoon.

Smoke will filter into the area from the north. This is expected
to limit Slantwise visibility.

WINDS: Generally less than 10 kts, but North this evening becoming
light and variable by Tuesday morning. TFJ

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow