039
FXUS65 KGGW 062053
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
253 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.DISCUSSION...


KEY MESSAGES:

1) Near or below freezing low temperatures are expected again
tonight across NE Montana, especially in the valleys and along the
Canadian border.

2) Look for a gradual warm up into the middle of the week with
mainly dry weather.

3) The next chance for rain showers looks to arrive over the
weekend, but greater probabilities and higher amounts will remain
over the mountains over western, central, and southern Montana.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Another night with light winds and mainly clear skies will allow
radiational cooling to drive temperatures down into the 20s and
30s again across NE Montana. Valley and near Canadian border
regions will see particular dropoffs in temperatures overnight
with higher terrain near or above freezing.

Upper ridging looks to take hold across the region through the
middle of the week. Thus, warmer temperatures and dry weather are
expected under the large scale subsidence.

Late week the ridge will shift east while upper trough deepens
over the Pacific Northwest with closed low. This system will slide
east for cooler temperatures and wet weather chances increasing by
the weekend. NE montana will be on the eastern fringes of this
weather system however, with greater probabilities for rain, and
possibly accumulating snow over the mountains, for western,
central, and southern Montana. NE Montana will mostly see rain and
light QPF. That said, temperatures may be cold enough for snow or
a mix, especially for higher terrain, by Sunday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Given expected radiational cooling overnight and the below normal
temperatures in place, NBM 25 was given some weight for low
temperatures Tuesday morning. Otherwise, confidence is high on
warmer and dry weather for the middle of the week with ensemble
consensus carving out a nice ridge pattern over the forecast
region. Late week, confidence is moderate to high on the ridge
shifting east and wet weather chances increasing. However,
marginal temperatures lend to precipitation type uncertainties
along with precipitation amount issues given the greater
probabilities may be focused south and west of the CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATE: October 6, 2025 at 2045Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR to continue tonight.

DISCUSSION: Mostly clear skies will prevail amid some high and
midlevel clouds at times tonight.

WIND: West wind around 10 kts will become light and variable
overnight. Look for south wind developing after 15Z on Tuesday and
increasing to around 10 kts during afternoon and early evening.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow