987
FXUS65 KGGW 142129
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
329 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Gusty northeast winds remain expected tonight and Tuesday. A
Lake Wind Advisory will be issued for Fort Peck Lake.

3) Widespread wet weather and cooler temperatures look to be in
place area wide late tonight through Wednesday. Total rainfall
across the region will range between 0.50" and 1.00" for most
locations with isolated higher totals.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A cold front will slip south this evening and tonight as showers
and thunderstorms become more widespread across the region along
with gusty northeast winds. The Lake Wind advisory is in good
shape with no changes made to that product which goes from 6 PM
today until 6 PM Tuesday.

Most of the HREF guidance has backed off on the severe weather
threat and shifted it further south and west of the CWA, but an
isolated strong wind gust still cannot be ruled out. The main
story will be the cool and wet weather through the middle of the
week. All told, look for between 0.50" and 1.00" across the region
by Wednesday. NBM 72 hour probability of an inch or more is
greatest over the southwest zones (north of 50 percent) across the
Little Rockies and toward Winnett and Jordan.

Ensembles support a return to near normal temperatures by the end
of the week but with active weather continuing at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is low on severe weather potential this evening due to
poor run to run model continuity. Confidence otherwise is high for
cool and wet weather conditions through the middle of the week.
NBM was used for the forecast cycle and captured expected trends
well.



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2100Z on July 14, 2025

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR today and this evening transitioning to MVFR
and IFR late tonight.

DISCUSSION:
VFR conditions are expected this afternoon initially. A cold front
will push south this evening with increasing cloud cover and
showers and thunderstorms. This will produce MVFR ceilings along
with MVFR/IFR visibilities in steadier thunderstorms.

Winds: Look for east to NE winds increasing to 10 to 20 kts,
gusting to 30 kts this evening. NE winds will persist into
Tuesday.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT Tuesday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow