716
FXUS63 KGID 081126
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
626 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms will continue to pass in and out of multiple
  portions of the area through the rest of the day. The best
  storm chances will gradually shift from northwest to southeast
  portions of the area through the day and night.

- The main hazards possible with the strongest storms would be
  gusty winds up to around 60MPH, hail up to the size of
  quarters and heavy rainfall that could lead to a few localized
  areas of flooding.

- The next chance for precipitation beyond tonight (20-60
  percent; increasing towards the east) does not come until
  Friday.

- A heat advisory will be in effect for southeast portions of
  the area from noon until 7PM today. Temperatures as high as
  95-102 degrees with heat index values as high as 105-109
  degrees will be possible for these areas.

- Cooler temperatures will fill in behind the cold front today
  with highs retuning to the upper 70s to mid 80s for both
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A handful of storms tonight will continue to slide in and out of
primarily central to northwest portions of the area (locations
near, north and west of the Tri-Cities) through the rest of the
morning. These storms have and will continue to form along a
high moisture reservoir/low-level jet steered corridor, that
currently stretches from northern Arizona to central Nebraska.
Though the potential for a few stronger storms still remain this
morning, generally speaking, the instability (500-1,000J/km of
MLCAPE) and shear (20-40 kts) does not appear to be all that
supportive for sustaining strong to borderline severe storm for
very long. Given the moist (and high theta-e) environment,
strong PWAT values this morning as high as 1.5-2in suggest that
a few of the stronger/heavier downpours may deposit more
appreciable rainfall amounts. A few areas of flooding can`t be
ruled out across locations that receive multiple rounds of the
"more efficient" rainstorms.

This region of scattered convective activity has formed ahead of
an approaching trough/upper-level disturbance that will soon
shake things up here locally. For starters, a cold front is on
the way in from the northwest today. This frontal passage will
claim responsibility for the highs in the 80s across locations
near and northwest of the Tri-Cities today as well as the upper
70s to mid 80s highs that will return back to the full area for
both Wednesday and Thursday. Locations near and south of the
state line should still see temperatures climb as high as the
mid 90s to low 100s today as the front will not be expected to
reach these locations before the peak heating of the day. A Heat
Advisory will be in effect from noon until 7PM tonight for
Nuckolls and Thayer counties in Nebraska as well as Rooks,
Smith, Osborne, Jewell and Mitchell counties in Kansas. Heat
index values in these areas will rise to as high as 105-109
degrees this afternoon.

Scattered storms will continue to develop along the southwest to
northeast oriented pre-frontal moisture/instability axis through
the remainder of the day. The cluster of storms will gradually
shift south and east during the day and night. A few strong to
severe storms will again be possible this evening as instability
rebuilds across portions of the area mainly along, south and
east of the Tri-Cities. A marginal risk of severe weather is
currently in place across areas south and east of a line that
extends from Furnas up to Nance counties. A few storms may be
able to produce wind gusts in excess of 60MPH with hail up to
the size of quarters. Locally heavy rainfall amounts may
additionally lead to a few localized area of flooding.

Northerly winds behind the passing front today will advect in a
cooler and drier airmass. This will keep temperatures out of the
90s through Thursday with dewpoints falling back to the mid 50s
to mid 60s. In addition, no chances for precipitation currently
lie between Wednesday and Friday morning as more stable
conditions are expected to establish behind the upper-level
disturbance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Relatively deep mixing is resulting in breezy south winds with
gusts near 30 MPH across much of the area. Spotty gusts as high
as 40 MPH cannot be ruled out through late afternoon.

Convection is expected to develop along a pre-frontal trough
over western Nebraska this evening, potentially reaching
Furnas/Gosper/Dawson counties by around 7pm. A few of these
storms could be marginally severe through the evening, but
intensity is expected to wane by midnight. The primary threat
would be wind given the deep mixing and high cloud bases.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist through the
overnight and into Tuesday morning as a cold front pushes in
from the northwest. South of the front should remain mostly
clear, allowing for one more day of heat index values near/over
105 degrees. A Heat Advisory was issued for areas that are most
favored to remain south of the front into the afternoon,
although there is some potential for this to "bust" if the
frontal timing were to speed up. Fun fact: this is the latest
Heat Advisory ever issued by NWS Hastings. Prior to this year,
we had never issued a heat advisory in September, but there have
been 4 days with Heat Advisories this September!

Most of the storms during the daytime should be non-severe,
although CAMs hint at slightly more robust convection along the
front late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. This would favor
southeastern portions of the forecast area that are warmer and
therefore more unstable.

Wednesday and Thursday trend drier with more seasonable
temperatures (highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s). That said, some low PoPs (10-20%) persist over
portions of Kansas. Above-normal temperatures are favored to
return Friday, but another system will provide a cooldown and
additional rain/t-storm chances for Saturday through next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered storms will be in and out of both the KEAR and KGRI
terminals this afternoon and tonight. The scattered storm
chances for the rest of the morning should be fairly limited
(<20%). The overall best potential for thunderstorms today will
fall between 0z and 11z. Visibility reductions to as low as 2-4
miles will be possible during the heaviest downpours. Though a
few clouds will linger as low as 1,500-3,000ft throughout the
period, it is unlikely for ceilings to maintain in MVFR
classifications for longer than a few brief 1 to 2 hour
window. Cloud bases for a majority of the day will mainly range
between 10,000-15,000ft. Winds this morning will generally stay
out of the south before abruptly turning northwards following
the passage of a cold front around 17-19z.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ086-087.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ006-007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Stump