322
FXUS63 KGID 131142
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginal risk of severe weather returns to the area both
  today and tomorrow. The strongest storms will be capable of
  producing winds up to near 60MPH. Though not the primary
  severe hazard, a few of the strongest storms may still be able
  to produce some hail up to the size of quarters.

- The best potential for storms will generally lie between 8PM
  and 2AM tonight as well as after midnight Friday night.

- A heat advisory will be in effect across north central Kansas
  today through 9PM. Temperatures will raise to as high as 95 to
  105 degrees with heat index values as high as 110 across these
  area.

- Temperatures for today across central Nebraska and across the
  full area Friday and Saturday will range the upper 70s to 90s,
  with temperatures generally increasing from north to south.

- Scattered storm chances generally return each day across at
  least a small portion of the area through the weekend and into
  the first half of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026


Today and Tonight...

A few severe thunderstorms north of I-80 early this morning are
currently in the process of exiting out of central Nebraska. A few
trailing showers and non-severe thunderstorms could persist across a
few locations mainly north of I-80 through 7AM. Another wave of
storms (a few potentially severe) will return this evening and
tonight as another MCS (mesoscale convective system) is favored to
track from southwest to northeast across a majority of the area. The
latest HRRR/NAMNEST model guidance has storm approaching northern
Kansas and far southwest Nebraska locations around 8-10PM with the
cluster nearing central Nebraska between 11PM-1AM. Though models
seem to agree upon the timing of these storms fairly well, there is
still some variance in regards to the total coverage of these
storms. The coverage will depend all on where exactly storms
initialize across southeastern Colorado and western Kansas across
in the afternoon.

As shown with the storms from this past morning, elevated
instability (CAPE up to 1,000-2,000J/km) paired with 25-40kts of
bulk shear, will generally be enough to sustain these storms through
much of the evening and night. Though not every storm will become
severe, the strongest storms will be capable of producing gusty wind
in excess of 60MPH. Given the warmer temperatures aloft (around
-5C at 500hPa), the formation of hail will not be the main concern
with these thunderstorms. Hail up to the size of quarters will only
be possible to form within the tallest storms. The SPC continues to
keep the full area under a Marginal risk of severe weather (level 1
of 5).

Other than the convective potential again this evening and tonight,
hot temperatures are once again expected to return across north
central Kansas and a few far portions of southern Nebraska. Highs
will range the 90s for the far southern row of Nebraska counties
with temperatures as high as 105 degrees possible across a few
northern Kansas areas. With dewpoints increasing to as high as the
mid 60s to low 70s, heat index values should to increase to as high
as 105 to 110 degrees across our Kansas locations. Philips, Smith
and Jewell counties will be added to the ongoing heat advisory
(currently across Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell counties) beginning at
11AM this morning. The heat advisory for these areas (all of our
north central Kansas counties) will be in effect through 9PM.

Temperatures across the rest of central Nebraska will generally
range the 80s (far northern areas) up to the mid 90s. The cooler
temperatures concentrated north of I-80 (low to mid 80 highs) will
result as trailing clouds behind this morning`s MCC (mesoscale
convective complex) should block out the sun for a majority of the
day. Wind directions out of the northeast today will not be expected
to change much as speeds will mainly stick between 10-15 MPH with
occasional gusts as high as 20-25 MPH possible across the afternoon
hours. More details regarding the rest of the forecast can be found
within the discussion section below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 503 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/UNCERTAINTIES:
- No truly major changes of note versus previous 7-day "forecast
  package", as summing things up in the shortest way possible:
  We remain in a seasonably-active summer pattern, marked by
  various/intermittent rain and thunderstorm chances
  (occasionally severe), along with fairly typical temps by mid-
  August standards.

- As for uncertainties, there are a few worth noting, ranging
  from very short term, to longer term:
1) Just how far south in our CWA will any severe storm threat
actually extend tonight? This forecaster continues to think that
SPC is probably at least 1-2 counties too generously south with
its official Slight Risk (level 2 of 5 area), as various high-
res models are fairly insistent that the MAIN threat area should
be MAINLY north of I-80.

2) In the longer term, am not overly-comfortable with Saturday
night currently sporting such high rain chances/PoPs (mainly
60-70%) that far out in time, but at least for now, "on paper"
this appears to be one of the better chances for much of our CWA
(not just parts of it) to pick up some decent rain.

3) Our official high temperature forecast calls for much of our
area (mainly Nebraska) only reaching the 70s Sunday-Monday.
However, am thinking we might be aiming a little TOO cool here,
as latest set of model guidance suggests 80s are probably more
likely (unless of course it ends up being particularly
cloudy/rainy.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Wed. Aug. 19):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM:
Not that we`ve heard ANY complaints, but except for perhaps our
far southern counties in KS, high temps are on track to
"underachieve" by a few-to-several degrees versus earlier
forecasts, as fairly widespread coverage of mid-level clouds and
a smattering of high-based showers/weak thunderstorms (most weak
storms were this morning) have continue to percolate over our
CWA. As a result, actual high temps are on track to "only" top
out a few degrees either side of 90 in most of our CWA, with any
mid-upper 90s to perhaps low-100s confined to mainly our KS
counties (particularly our "bottom three"). Directly related to
this, heat index readings have also been held down somewhat,
with any 100-105+ values mostly confined to our KS counties
along with the Furnas County area. Will let the previously-
issued Heat Advisory "ride" through 9 PM for all 6 of our KS
counties, but in reality only parts of our bottom three
(Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell) probably stand a chance of reaching
official criteria of 105+.

In the big picture aloft, water vapor satellite imagery and
short term model data confirm that our area resides under
generally west-southwesterly flow aloft, as we reside in the
proverbial "ring of fire" zone along the northern periphery of a
ridge/high pressure centered mainly over OK/TX. At the surface,
the vast majority of our CWA resides north of a rather sharp,
west-east oriented quasi-stationary front that lies across
northern KS. To the north of this boundary, easterly breezes
generally 10-15 MPH prevail, while to the south of this front
(which does clip at least southern parts of
Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell counties in our far south,more southerly
breezes prevail with temperatures 100+ degrees.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
By FAR the main concern is a chance for a complex/cluster of
strong to perhaps severe storms to track across mainly the
northern 1/3rd of our CWA mainly between 11 PM-5 AM. Leaning
heavily on latest higher-res models such as HRRR/RRFS, while
some very spotty high-based showers could continue into early
evening mainly in our southern counties (near/south of the KS
border), at least the vast majority of our CWA should remain
dry/thunderstorm-free until at least 11 PM (prior to this,
initially more isolated strong/severe storms currently
developing out near the NE/WY/CO border area will gradually grow
"upscale" into a larger complex as it approaches our CWA). Once
storms arrive (again, MOST favored north of I-80 but with at
least spotty/isolated activity perhaps as far south as near the
state line), the "million dollar question" is how severe they
might be? While deep-layer shear will be fairly modest (mainly
around 35KT or less), the presence of at least 1000-2000 J/kg
instability/CAPE and convergence along the nose/exit region of a
somewhat strong southerly low level jet (LLJ) will surely give
storms a chance to provide somewhat of a punch, especially IF
they are able to maintain a notable cold pool/outflow surge. Of
greatest concern are potential wind gusts up to ~ 65 MPH, with a
lesser threat of hail up to around quarter size. A few places
could get a quick 1-2" of rain, but fairly progressive motion of
the complex should limit flooding potential. By around 5 AM, the
main complex should be fairly cleanly departed east of our CWA,
ending any potential severe threat, although some lingering
spotty showers/weak storms remain quite possible.

In other departments, low temps tonight aimed from mid 60s
northwest to low-mid 70s southeast. Depending on how
aggressively convective outflow surges south across the area,
much of our CWA could very well see at least a brief blast of at
least 25-35 MPH winds out of the north-northeast...even well-
south of where actual rain falls/storms track.


- THURSDAY DAYTIME (through around 7 PM):
Other than perhaps some lingering light showers/sprinkles mainly
in the morning behind the departing complex, the vast majority
of our CWA should have a dry day. The tricky part will be cloud
cover and resultant temps/heat index, as although we are already
forecasting a rather sharp gradient/divide in high temps across
our CWA (ranging from only low 80s north-northwest...to mid 80s
central...to mid-upper 90s and even some 100s far south-
southeast, the presence of a potentially fairly solid deck of
lower clouds over our Nebraska counties could make this
temperature gradient even sharper than currently depicted. At
any rate, based on our "best attempt" at the
temperature/dewpoint forecast, especially our KS counties (but
also perhaps Thayer/Nuckolls counties area in Nebraska) has a
good chance of reaching 100+ heat index, with particularly our
bottom three counties (Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell) more favored to
reach at least 105-110 heat index. As a result, have extended
Heat Advisory into these counties through 9 PM, and cannot rule
out night shift perhaps adding a few more counties based on
latest model trends. Otherwise, aside from our far southern
areas, most of our CWA will be a touch breezy out of the
northeast...sustained speeds commonly around 15 MPH/gusts 20+
MPH.


- THURSDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT (after 7 PM):
Another night, another chance for thunderstorms (a few possibly
severe). Although details still need sorted out, confidence is
gradually increasing that at least isolated-to-scattered storms
will gradually invade our CWA from southwest-to-northeast during
the evening, gradually weakening/dissipating during the later
night hours. Although this convection will likely be a bit more
elevated (above the shallow surface front) compared to storms
tonight, instability/shear appear sufficient for at least
marginally severe storm, and cannot argue with SPC assigning a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) to our entire CWA). Low temps aimed
just barely cooler than tonight...mainly mid 60s northwest to
upper 60s-low 70s southeast.


- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
In some ways, it`s "rinse repeat", although admittedly already
by this time confidence in "finer details" starts to wane. Much
of the day could feature at least spotty showers/weak storms in
the wake of the previous overnight activity, although much of
the afternoon-evening is likely dry before somewhat better storm
chances arrive later overnight. Again, SPC has assigned a
Marginal Risk of severe to almost our entire CWA. Temperature-
wise, highs in most of our Nebraska counties will be similar to
Thursday (mainly 80s), but our KS zones will finally catch a bit
more relief, with highs "only" low-mid 90s most places, and heat
index expected to be at least slightly short of Advisory
criteria (although 100+ values still possible especially far
southeast). Lows Friday night mainly mid-upper 60s.


- SATURDAY-SUNDAY (the weekend):
Our active pattern continues, with various rain/thunderstorm
chances...overall highest Saturday night, although details
remain murky for sure. Aloft, our flow transitions from more
southwesterly back to more west-northwesterly...as the upper
high/ridge to our south-southeast retrogrades back westward into
the Southern Plains. Saturday looks to bring one final days of
highs in the 90s (and heat index 100+) to parts of our KS zones,
but most of our CWA appears on track to have highs in the 80s
both days.


- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
Again, it`s much the same, as various (mainly lower confidence)
showers/thunderstorm chances persist, as our region remains
under persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft, as the large-
scale upper high/ridge further retrogrades back west toward
NM/AZ. Odds favor highs mainly in the 80s all three days, with
any 90s mainly confined to our far south in KS (as previously
mentioned, am not necessarily sold on much of our CWA only
reaching the 70s Monday).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions anticipated through the daytime hours
with BKN mid level clouds this morning expected to clear by
midday. Winds will generally be northeasterly through the day,
with gusts of 15 to 20 KTS possible during the afternoon hours.
Expect an upper level disturbance to lift NE out of the
southwest this evening, bringing a chance for thunderstorms to
the terminals around 14/06Z, which was covered in a prob30
group. Models also indicating some low stratus and fog possible
late tonight, so also introduced MVFR VSBYS and BR to both
terminals at 14/06Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Rossi