629
FXUS63 KGID 110707
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
207 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Outside of the chance a few showers could clip NNW portions of
  the area early this morning, the forecast through the day
  today remains dry.

- Expecting windy conditions today. Winds will be turning more
  southerly with time this morning, increasing in speed
  especially mid-late morning. Gusts through the afternoon near
  35 MPH will be possible.

- Another chance for some scattered precipitation again tonight-
  Sun AM with the rest of the day looking dry. A stronger cold
  front will be making its way through the area during the day,
  switching gusty SSW winds to the NW as it passes. Late in the
  day/evening, some scattered showers/storms are possible along
  that front...some uncertainty remains with its exact location
  when that occurs.

- After highs in the 80s on Sunday, this cold front drops highs
  into the 60s for Monday, and 50s-60s for Tuesday. Highs
  rebound back into the 70s Wed-Sat. Periodic disturbances will
  keep precipitation chances in the forecast for the new work
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data showing the main ridge axis
continuing to slide east across the region early this
morning...getting a push from a larger scale low pressure system
moving onto the West Coast...while other areas of low pressure
spin make their way through the Great Lakes and GA/FL border
regions. A subtle embedded shortwave disturbance, aided by lift
via a 30-ish knot LLJ has brought some scattered showers and a
few rumbles of thunder into WSW portions of NE. This activity is
expected to largely miss the the forecast area, but not out of
the question some isolated precip clips NNW portions through the
rest of the early morning hours. Looking at the surface, the
main frontal boundary lies well south of the forecast area,
draped from eastern WY down through western and southern
KS...while high pressure has built into the Nrn Plains/western
Great Lakes region. This is keeping winds early this AM
easterly, and light with speeds around 10 MPH.

Today and tonight...

Overall, not a lot of change in the forecast through
tonight...which for most folks remains dry. Models remain in
good agreement in the broader picture...showing upper level flow
continuing to turn more southwesterly with time, as that West
Coast low/trough further inland. Any activity lingering into the
morning hours continues to slide NE, and once it pushes out of
the area, the daytime hours today are expected to be dry. Not
unlike what`s going on currently...another overall small chance
for preciptiation does return to the forecast for late tonight-
early Sunday AM. Models showing another subtle shortwave
disturbance sliding into the area in the SWrly flow, and aided
by a strengthened low-level jet, may bring some scattered
preciptiation to mainly NNWrn portions of the forecast area. Not
out of the question there could again be a few rumbles of
thunder, but any storms that develop/slide into the area are not
expected to be strong/severe.

Expecting gusty winds to develop during the daytime hours
today...with models in good agreement showing the area of high
pressure/ridging pushing further east of the area, while low
pressure deepens some over the High Plains. The resulting
pattern change and tightening pressure gradient across the
region will bring gusty southerly winds...with some guidance
showing gusts of 30-40 MPH will be possible, with the stronger
gusts across western areas. High temperatures this afternoon
remain in the mid-upper 70s in the NE to mid 80s in the SW...but
with dewpoints in the 50s (near 60 in some spots), relative
humidity values are expected to remain above critical fire
weather levels (20 percent or lower). Winds taper off a touch
this evening/overnight, but will remain on the gusty side. Lows
tonight are on the more mild side, with low-mid 60s expected.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Whatever lingering scattered activity there is Sunday morning is
expected to slide off to the east, leaving that 12Z-00Z daytime
block dry. Flow in the upper levels remains southwesterly, with
the main trough continuing to slide east through the
Rockies...and models showing a more organized closed circulation
developing over the MT/ND/Canada border area during the day. As
this system continues to push east, an accompanying surface
cold front will be making its way into the forecast area. Still
some minor differences with the timing, but in general the front
is working through the heart of the forecast area early-mid
afternoon, and by 00Z is along the SErn fringe.

Sunday remains the overall warmest day of this 7-day forecast
period...but anytime there is a daytime frontal passage,
confidence in those highs is not overly high. This is
especially true for the NWrn half of the forecast area...whose
highs are more likely to occur closer to midday, then once that
front passes through remains steady if not falls. Have lower 80s
in the forecast for those NW areas...further SE, which has more
time to warm ahead of the front, have mid to upper 80s forecast
for highs. Gusty winds will again be possible...out of the SSW
ahead of the front, lighter along the boundary, then switching
to the NW once the front passes.

During the evening/overnight hours, models showing some
scattered showers/thunderstorms developing along this
boundary...which could impact SErn portions of the forecast
area. There are some differences between models with its exact
location when things develop...some have it SE of the area and
miss us...others are a little slower and give us better chances.
At this point the forecast precipitation chances remain low (20
percent) until those details can be further ironed out.

As we get into Monday and Tuesday...the most notable story with
these two day is the drop in temperatures in the wake of
Sunday`s upper trough/surface cold front passage. Following
those 80s on Sunday...highs on Monday drop into the low-mid 60s,
with upper 50s (north) to mid 60s (south) expected for Tuesday.
Aloft, flow across the region remains southwesterly, as high
pressure reestablishes itself more over the Srn Plains, while
another low pressure system is digging onto the West Coast.
Models showing the potential for a couple of shortwave
disturbances to push through the region...keeping preciptiation
chances in the forecast, with the best chances currently in the
Monday night-Tuesday day period. We`ll see how models trend with
the finer details...hard to have a high degree of confidence
that far out.

Latter half of the week...

Looking toward Wednesday on through the end of the
week...overall no notable changes made to the forecast. Models
aren`t in too bad of agreement in the bigger picture...showing
generally southwesterly flow continuing in the upper
levels...with high pressure over the Srn Plains being more of a
driver through mid-week taken over late week by another larger
scale trough pushing east through the western CONUS. Potentially
remains for embedded shortwave disturbances to bring periodic
precipitation chances to the region...but confidence in the
timing/track remains low, so forecast chances remain at 20
percent. Highs are expected to rebound from Mon-Tue, with more
highs back in the 70s Wed-Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather forecast for this TAF period, with better chances
for any scattered activity looking to remain NNW of the terminal
areas. VFR conditions are forecast, while some scattered lower
clouds around 4k ft are possible, the thicker cloud cover is
expected to remain in the mid-upper levels. Main story for this
period lies with winds, which will be increasing out of the SSE
during the mid-late morning hours. Gusts through the afternoon
hours around 35MPH are expected. During the evening hours,
speeds may diminish just a touch, but gusty conditions are
expected to linger overnight. Models also showing the potential
for LLWS at both terminal sites, so have that mention running
from 02Z on through the end of the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP