366
FXUS63 KGID 250526
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1226 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Models continue to show the potential for fog development as
  we get into the early morning hours...a few spots already have
  visibilities near 2SM. Will be watching trends closely for the
  need for a Dense Fog Advisory.

- Main story for this weekend is the return of summer heat.
  After a couple days with cooler temps, highs rocket back into
  the 90s-low 100s. Heat index values today are widespread
  around 105 degrees...could be closer to 110 degrees for
  Sunday. Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire area
  from noon today through Monday evening. Will be seeing how
  models trend with Sunday...not out of the question an upgrade
  to an Ext. Heat Warning may be needed.

- Today through Monday, the vast majority of the area remains
  dry. Some models try to clip far NNE portions of the area with
  iso-sct activity Sunday evening...confidence in that is not
  high. A few more periodic chances return Tuesday on...again
  confidence in those chances is not high.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Currently through the rest of tonight...

Quiet conditions currently reign across the area...with the main
concern through the rest of tonight lying with fog potential.
Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing continued
west-northwesterly flow in place across the region. Pattern for
our forecast area remains driven by upper level ridging,
centered roughly near/just east of the Four Corners
region...sandwiched between low pressure/troughing just off the
Pac NW coast and troughing working its way through the Great
Lakes region. Satellite imagery also showing little in the way
of cloud cover currently, with just far NErn areas seeing some
lower level stratus. At the surface, an overall weak pattern is
keeping winds on the light side, and generally southeasterly.

Already seeing some automated sites with visibilities below
5SM...with models showing the potential for greater coverage of
fog and lower visibilities developing as we get more into the
early morning hours today. Not out of the question that a Dense
Fog Adv may be needed...will be keeping a close eye on trends
with sensors and webcams over the next few hours.

This weekend into Monday...

The main story for this weekend into the start of the new work
week continues to lie with the return of summer heat.

As far as precipitation chances go, models still showing little
overall change in the upper level pattern...keeping that ridge
axis in the area, and the forecast for the vast majority of
the forecast area remains dry. The lone exception with this
forecast package lies on Sunday evening, with some small 20
percent chances clipping far NNE portions of the area. Not all
models agree, but some show the potential for a shortwave
disturbances riding around the edge of the ridging digging far
enough some to bring some scattered chances for showers/storms.
At this point, these chances aren`t anything to get too excited
about as far as appreciable rain goes.

The lack of notable changes in the upper level pattern/ridging
will keep that hotter airmass in place across the region.
After a couple of days with cooler temps, highs rocket back well
into the 90s/near 100 degrees today...with more upper 90s-low
100s possible for Sun-Mon. No changes were made to the Heat
Advisory...which remains in effect CWA-wide, running from noon
today on through Monday evening. Solid area of heat index values
near 105 are forecast for today...and looking ahead to Sunday,
not out of the question that more widespread values closer to
110 may occur. Will see how models trend with temps/dewpoints,
but an upgrade to Extreme Heat Warning is not out of the
question for Sunday. There looks to be at least a little relief
via winds...today`s SErly winds top out around 10-15 MPH,
Sunday`s more Srly winds currently have more solid 15-ish MPH
winds. At this point, Monday`s forecast heat index values are
closer to today than Sunday...but again will see how models
trend.

Mid-late week...

No notable changes were made to the forecast for the latter half
of this forecast period. The overall pattern remains driven by
that upper level ridging...and while there are a few more
precipitation chances in the forecast, those chances will be
dependent on how those periodic shortwave disturbances track
along the northern edge of the ridge. Not a ton of confidence in
any of the chances at this point. Forecast highs Tuesday on are
a touch `cooler`...currently topping out mainly in the low-mid
90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
Honestly, it was this forecaster`s first true 7-day forecast
shift in a while, so am admittedly lacking much "personal
history" with recent trends. Overall though, a quick comparison
of our previous (overnight shift) forecast to this latest one
reveals primarily minor/limited changes.

Temperature and heat index wise:
If anything, expected peak heat index values have crept a touch
higher for Saturday (remaining similar for Sunday-Monday).
Barring any unforeseen cloud issues and/or outflow boundaries
getting in the mix, all three afternoons/early evenings should
feature widespread peak heat index 100-110, with at least
localized spots mainly within Nebraska counties east of Hwy 281
(where dewpoints/humidity will be highest) at least briefly
creeping above 110 heat index. Although 110+ is technically our
Extreme Heat Warning criteria, at least for now we are calling
for small enough of an area to breach 110+ for only a limited
amount of time...that was comfortable just keeping a Heat
Advisory in place through all three days at this time.

Rain/thunderstorm potential:
As touched on in Key Messages above, parts of the Saturday
night-Sunday night time frame might not be truly "guaranteed"
dry...despite our lack of official mentionable rain chances in
our official forecast (which need to be 15+% to be included).
Although still over 48 hours away and carrying a high degree of
uncertainty, what likely bears most watching is Sunday evening-
overnight, during which time there is limited model support
(albeit including the often-reliable ECMWF) for thunderstorm to
TRY slipping into our mainly our far northern/northeast
counties. IF this occurs, probably cannot rule out the potential
for a strong to marginally-severe storm, and we`ll acknowledge
here that SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe (level 1
of 5) to some of our northern/northeast counties on their latest
Day 3 Outlook.


- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Fri. July 31):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
Once the last of any spotty measurable showers moved out by
around sunrise this morning, the main question today was how
efficiently an expansive lower stratus cloud deck would clear,
and the resultant impact on temps. In short, the low stratus has
proven slower/more stubborn to clear across especially the
majority of our Nebraska CWA, with cloudy/mostly cloudy
conditions still hanging tough at this time in most places, in
turn keeping current temps in the 70s. In fairly sharp contrast,
no worse than partly cloudy (if not mostly sunny) skies have
prevailed this afternoon within our KS zones along with some of
our western-most Nebraska counties (such as Dawson/Furnas),
allowing temps to quickly rise into the 80s and even low 90s.

As we get into late afternoon/evening, clouds should continue to
SLOWLY scatter out/break up from west-to-east and south-to-
north, but probably not in time to get our entire
central/eastern CWA into the 80s as earlier expected (if nothing
else, official daytime highs will likely be later-than-usual).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data confirm that we remain under
northwesterly flow aloft, directed between a prominent upper
ridge/high centered over the Four Corners region, and a broad
trough positioned from the Great Lakes region into the
northeast states. At the surface, the pressure gradient is
weak...keeping wind speeds mainly well under 10 MPH across the
majority of our CWA..with direction mainly from the south-
southeast.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Although a few showers could try developing slightly east of our
CWA generally along eastern parts of the NE/KS border area,
confidence is fairly high in our going dry forecast. That leaves
the evolution of low clouds and/or fog as the "million dollar
question" for tonight. As already mentioned, low clouds have
been slower to clear today in many central/eastern counties, and
latest RAP low-level RH fields suggest some of our eastern-most
Nebraska counties might struggle to clear until closer to 10-11
PM. This raises some concern that fog could develop earlier than
currently expected tonight...possibly favoring the western edge
of the "clearing line". However, our official forecast is geared
more toward the latest HRRR solutions, which keeps us largely
fog-free until post-midnight...after which time at least a
50-mile wide corridor of fog (perhaps dense?) could materialize
in generally west-southwest to east-northeast fashion across
parts of our CWA (currently most favoring central areas). That
being said, there is some inherent uncertainty even at this
close range (typical of especially summer fog potential), as a
light west-southwesterly wind component (downslope) in the
boundary layer MIGHT try working against truly dense fog
development. In the end, opted to blanket our entire CWA with at
least generic "patchy fog" potential for the late night hours,
and have acknowledged in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID)
that at least localized dense fog (and thus a potential
Advisory) is possible. Will defer to later shifts for any
possible Advisory issuance, however.

Otherwise overnight, low temps are forecast to bottom out mainly
66-71 degrees.


- SATURDAY DAYTIME:
Here comes the heat (as the upper high/ridge over the Southwest
builds northeastward more into the central U.S.) ! Unlike
today, and even IF the morning starts out with lingering
fog/dense fog...the shallower nature of the low level moisture
should allow skies to clear much faster...paving the way for a
sunny/mostly sunny day CWA- wide. As was the case with our last
heat wave, various models/guidance are likely aiming a bit too
high on actual temps (especially in the northeast half of our
CWA where coverage of row crops is most prevalent), and in turn
might be slightly under-doing dewpoints/humidity in these same
areas. However, even if these errors are in play, these factors
should "cancel each other out" to some degree and result in
effective heat index values being of reasonably-high confidence.
As it currently stands, we`re calling for actual high temps
mainly 95-100 degrees...and highest heat index mainly 100-109
(supporting the Heat Advisory). Winds will be steady but fairly
light (mainly near- to-under 10 MPH) out of the south-southeast
during the afternoon...offering minimal relief.


- SATURDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Not expecting any fog issues for a change, and our going dry
forecast continues s the dominant upper ridge should shunt vast
majority of any convection at least slightly to our north. That
being said, latest HRRR hints at some spotty/high-based showers
trying to brush into our far northern counties through the
night...so this cannot be completely ruled out. In the presence
of light southerly winds, overnight low temps only drop into
the low-mid 70s.


- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
The daytime looks to be another steamy/hot one, albeit with a
bit more of a southerly breeze than Saturday (sustained 10-15
MPH/gusts 20+ MPH). Even so, high temps within a few degrees
either side of 100 should push max heat index solidly into the
105-110 range most areas.

For Sunday evening-overnight, will need to watch our far
northern/eastern counties just in case some showers/storms can
sneak in and overcome the vary warm air/capping aloft (as
previous mentioned SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk on its
latest Day 3 outlook). Low temps again warm...mainly 72-77
degrees.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
One final day of notable heat and the last day of the official
Advisory, as SLIGHTLY cooler air works in behind a weak "cold
front" that will usher in more easterly breezes. Still though,
temps/heat index currently aimed very similar to Sunday`s
values. With slightly better support in the model world versus
Sunday night, our official forecast DOES include some low-end
thunderstorm chances for Monday evening-overnight as there is
better agreement that the dominant ridge weakens enough to allow
some convection in from the west.


- TUESDAY-FRIDAY:
In short, it remains seasonably warm...but at least slightly
cooler than previous days with actual high temps mainly low-mid
90s and heat index values mainly topping out 95-100 each of
these four days. Although still of the VERY low confidence
variety, we are carrying intermittent chances for showers and
what should MAINLY be fairly weak storms (given fairly weak deep
layer wind shear).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry conditions are forecast for this TAF period...the main
concern remaining with fog/stratus potential the rest of tonight
into the early morning hours. Models continue to show the
potential for sub-1k ft ceilings and visibilities dropping to
less than 1SM, potentially becoming dense. Winds through mid-
morning look to remain light/variable. VFR conditions are
expected to return mid-morning, confidence in the exact timing
of when that occurs is not high...current forecast has that
around 15Z. Once VFR conditions return, they are expected to
last through the end of this period...with winds turning more
southerly around midday on through the end of the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...ADP