241
FXUS63 KGID 081730
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Beyond the influence of a nearby passing shower today, friday
  or Saturday night, the rest of this week is destined to stay
  dry.

- One last day today of fall-like temperatures (60s highs) with highs
  ranging the mid 70s to mid 80s through the rest of the week
  and weekend.

- An upper level disturbance could bring a few showers and
  storms to the area Sunday night through next Wednesday (15-30%
  chances each day).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025


We find ourselves today beneath an expansive ridge whose axis
currently resides just along the eastern most extent of the Rocky
Mountains. This feature is expected to prevail aloft through the
rest of the week, dominating the synoptic pattern. Its presence
will ultimately assist in warming temperatures through the rest of
the week as well as shielding the area from any organized
precipitation system. As result, our chance of precipitation lies
below 20% for all areas through Saturday. A sprinkle or brief light
shower can`t be completely written off today/tonight as well as a
potential nearby shower clipping a portion of the area Friday or
Saturday night. In reality most places should remain dry.

The surface high pressure center along the western Great Lakes
region today expands its furthest extent down into a good portion of
Central Nebraska and Kansas. This feature`s presence over the last
day or so has previously keeps winds light and mainly calm. A
surface trough, however, is expected to stretch down in from eastern
Montana to Western Nebraska today, brushing up against this higher
pressure. Winds as a result from these features will blow out of the
south up to 15-20MPH with gusts as high as 25-30MPH possible. The
strongest/gustiest winds will be concentrated slightly towards areas
lying closer to western Nebraska. Meanwhile, a fairly covered deck
of clouds is expected to continue to lift up from Western Kansas,
covering in most of the sun later today and helping limiting highs
to the 60s again for this afternoon. Be sure to soak in these fall
like temperatures as highs should bump back up to the mid 70s to low
80s through the rest of the week.

Higher pressure will gradually pass the baton over to the surface
trough on Thursday. This should keep the gusty southerlies around
during the daytime. Temperatures will respond quickly from clearing
skies and the continuing presence of the warm southerly transporting
winds. Highs for Thursday are forecast to reach the mid 70s to low
80s. Though winds will lighten some Friday with directions turning
more eastward (ESE) from the breakdown of the surface trough, highs
should still remain fairly stable (upper 70s to low 80s). In terms
of sky conditions, a few clouds may return the second half of the
day Friday from out of the west. A few non-zero PoPs (10-15%) return
to our northwest fringes Friday night and toward our far northern
areas Saturday night. These minor chances fall as a few nearby
showers could approach a limited portion of the area.

The biggest pattern change will take place over the weekend as a
Northwest Pacific trough closes in on the Northern Rockies. The main
forecast problem of the week will be in regards to assessing the
timing and positioning of this upper-level disturbance. Both factors
will be pivotal to the precipitation and temperature forecast for
early next week. As of the latest long-range global model guidance,
a few showers/storms Sunday night could be feasible as the leading
trough pivots across the Northern Plains. The placement of the
trough axis, however, looks to be just too far northwest of the
region to suggest widespread activity in the area (15-20% chance).

On the other hand, a second snap of the trough potentially occurring
Tuesday, should likely cover a further southern footprint,
increasing the potential of precipitation up to 20-30% for the
area. In all, there is several details that are still to be
deciphered from in forecasting how this system is going to progress.
As far as temperatures go, highs may take a 10-15 degree hit back to
the upper 60s to mid 70s Monday behind the first trough.
Possibilities of temperatures thereafter widen as more variables
come into play with the second shortwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

SCT-BKN clouds around 060-080 will move into the TAF sites
during the afternoon-evening hours. These clouds will persist
into the early morning hours on Thursday before gradually
clearing first at KEAR than KGRI. Low stratus may also move into
the TAF sites after sunrise on Thursday. Low stratus would move
in from the west, and linger through the end of the TAF period
(13-18z). MVFR ceilings are possible in this stratus, but
confidence is too low to include MVFR conditions at this time.
Have indicated this potential with a SCT020 group.

South-southeasterly winds gusting 15-20kts are expected through
the late afternoon hours, with winds around 10kts overnight.
LLWS is possible overnight at KEAR, weakening around sunrise as
the LLJ weakens/veers. Winds increase after sunrise on
Thursday, with sustained winds of 10-15kts at KGRI/KEAR and
gusting to 20kts at KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Davis