390
FXUS63 KGID 131923
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
223 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant (but brief) warmup arrives on Monday.

- Scattered thunderstorms (some severe possible) develop late
  Monday afternoon through Monday evening.

- Cooler with continued off and on chances for rain through the
  week. Highest rain totals favor southeastern parts of the
  area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Clouds have resulted in a very cool day for most of Nebraska,
although mostly clear skies have allowed portions of northern
Kansas to reach the 80s this afternoon. Tonight, another round
of warm-air-advection showers/storms is expected. That said,
CAMs generally show the highest coverage remaining to our east.
At any rate, the threat for severe weather is low through
tonight.

A few showers or weak thunderstorms remain possible during the
morning and early afternoon on Monday. This does provide a
little uncertainty on how warm we will actually get, but there
should be enough clearing in the afternoon that most areas will
reach the upper 80s to 90s, aided by fairly strong southwest
winds (gusts 30-35 MPH). Southeastern areas could see heat index
values approach/exceed 100 degrees briefly Monday afternoon
before the front moves through.

This front will provide focus for storm development in the late
afternoon and evening. Coverage and intensity is still a little
uncertain, but at least a few strong to severe storms are
possible in the 5PM to midnight timeframe. Roughly the
southeastern half of the area is most favored for severe
weather.

Storm intensity will wane Monday night, but at least a few
showers and storms will persist into Tuesday. The post-frontal
airmass will be noticably cooler on Tuesday (highs in the upper
60s and low 70s, depending on cloud cover). Thunderstorms become
likely again Tuesday night, especially in southeastern parts of
the area, as southwesterly flow aloft interacts with the stalled
midlevel boundary across KS and southeastern Neb.

This pattern then repeats itself through the rest of the
workweek. Overall, temperatures remain on the cooler side,
although temperatures could approach climatological normals
(upper 70s to low 80s) on Friday. Daily chances for rain and
thunderstorms continue, although the overall severe threat is
fairly low. Global ensembles favor the southeastern half of the
area with highest chance (>50%) for over 1.00" of rain through
the week. Localized amounts of 2-3" are possible, although it is
possible that the heaviest rain totals are realized to our east.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Stratus remains entrenched over central Nebraska, although
ceilings are lower at EAR than at GRI. Ceilings will improve a
bit late this afternoon, but low stratus (IFR) is expected to
return tonight into Monday morning. LLWS is also expected
roughly 09-15Z Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels