190
FXUS63 KGID 061155
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
655 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms and threat for heavy rain should gradually
  diminish this morning.

- Dry and warm conditions are expected for the rest of the day
  with highs climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
  Lingering moisture and recent rainfall will make it feel
  muggy.

- An upper low moving north out of the Srn Plains will bring
  precip chances back for Sunday, with the best chances
  currently focused across the eastern half of the area.

- Periodic upper level disturbances keep storm chances in the
  forecast as we get into the new work week. Tuesday and
  Wednesday looking to be the overall-hottest days of the week,
  with forecast highs well into the 90s to low 100s. Heat
  indices may reach as high as ~105F.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Have cancelled the Flood Watch as additional heavy rain is not
expected. Flash Flood Warnings and Advisories have been
converted to Aerial Flood Warnings where necessary. The most
significant flooding will tend to focus along the Beaver Creek,
West Fork of the Big Blue River, Sandy Creek, and Little Blue
Rivers...and the creeks and tributaries that feed into them.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 444 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Been a busy last 12 hours or so with multiple clusters of
thunderstorms for some locations, esp. for areas along and E of
Hwy 281. Have had just enough shear and instability for sporadic
large hail and gusty winds...but by far the greater impact has
been heavy rain and high rainfall rates. Have several flood
products out right now that will likely need to be consolidated
and converted to one or two Areal Flood Warnings. Based on
automated gauges and radar estimates, appears we`ve had a broad
swath of 2-4" of new rainfall, with pockets of even higher
amounts around 4-5", maybe even close to 6". Would classify this
event as very poorly modeled, even as little as 12-24 hours
prior to storm initiation as the majority of models that did
have heavy precip were way too far to the E with it. At any
rate, the conceptual signs were there with a broad, moderately
strong LLJ interacting with deep, copious moisture (PWATs
1.5-1.7") and little to no capping. The combination of high
PWATs and unseasonably weak shear had this event feeling more
like mid to late summer than early June.

Fortunately, the LLJ responsible for the lift is steadily
weakening and veering per latest KUEX VAD. Still have a few
heavier cores hanging tough in Clay and Nuckolls Counties, but
expect these to continue to decline. Could see a very isolated
shower/storm persist as late as 7-8AM, but the vast majority of
the day and the area will be dry for the daytime and evening
hours. Temperatures will warm up quite a bit this afternoon, as
highs climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s - warmest W third.
Expect mainly dry conditions overnight with lows in the 60s.

A broad, weak upper trough - currently spinning over W TX - will
gradually open up and eject NEward on Sun...becoming negatively
tilted as it does so. This wave doesn`t look to have a real
strong focus with it, but rather it will promote broad lift
amidst a continued deeply moist environment. This suggests some
"popcorn style" showers and storms will become possible during
the afternoon/peak heating hours. Our chances will be highest E
of Hwy 281, with even higher chances just off to the E of Hwy
81 into eastern NE/KS. Don`t expect severe weather with these
storms, but they will be capable of brief heavy downpours.
Fortunately, upscale growth into organized clusters (such as
last night) appears quite unlikely at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Currently through tonight...

Conditions have been quiet across the forecast area this morning
on into the early afternoon hours...have had a few sprinkles
clip far northern portions, set up on the southern edge of a
subtle wave, that scattered activity is largely over
northeastern NE on its way into IA. Looking at upper air and
satellite data...flow across the region remains generally zonal
and on the weaker side. Broader picture...one area of low
pressure continues working its way south toward the Pac NW
Coast, with another spinning near the west TX/Mexico
border...while high pressure remains set up over the SErn CONUS.
Had a fair bit of fog/low level stratus earlier this morning
across areas between I-80 and the NE/KS state line...which
largely diminished by mid-morning, but still have some isolated-
scattered CU lingering through that area this afternoon. The
overall sfc pattern across the area is on the weaker side with
most winds around 10-15 MPH...that lingering CU also helps
highlight where one boundary lies, roughly around the HWY
6-state line area, where more dewpoints in the upper 60s-near 70
are...with easterly winds to the north and more southerly winds
to the south. Temps here at 2pm are mainly in the upper 70s
through that central area...with more mid 80s to the north and
mid 80s-near 90 further south.

Main question getting into later today and tonight remains with
thunderstorm chances and where things end up focusing. Even with
a very unstable airmass in place (SPC meso page showing MLCAPE
values exceeding 3000 j/kg already into southern portions of the
forecast area)...models have been pretty consistent showing
little to nothing developing prior to 00Z...just lacking better
upper level forcing. Don`t think it`s out of the question that
heating itself/increased lapse rates could help to spark
activity later this afternoon...it just would likely be pretty
isolated in nature. Anything that would develop obviously has no
shortage of instability to work with...but deeper layer shear
is on the lower side, sitting around 30kts. Models continue to
point more into the evening hours with the development of
thunderstorms...potential ramping up as the low level jet
increases. The main focus of this activity along the nose of the
LLJ looks to be across northern portions of the forecast
area...hi- res models showing areas along/north of I-80 having
the better chances through the overnight hours. Any storms that
develop would have the potential for mainly large hail/damaging
winds, heavy rainfall would be a concern as well...PWAT values
approach 1.5" in eastern portions, helping with activity being
efficient rain-makers, upper level flow being on the weaker side
and potentially running parallel to the line/cluster of storms
could lead to slow movement/training over the same area. If
things do end up developing across our northern areas...at least
over the past 72 hrs the heaviest rain was focused further
south, mainly over areas south of a JYR-MCK line. Still some
uncertainty with just how much activity impacts our forecast
area, as many models focus things more just off to our east.
What activity does impact our area will gradually push east
through the overnight hours...current forecast is dry between
09-12Z, but confidence is not overly high in that timing.

This weekend...

The forecast for the daytime-evening hours on Saturday remains
dry...though some uncertainty remains in the early morning
hours, will be dependent on how much activity develops/moves
through this evening-later tonight. Precipitation chances do
return to the forecast later Saturday night, continuing on into
Sunday. Models remain in pretty good agreement looking at the
upper level pattern...larger scale troughing pushes further
inland from the West Coast, while that low pressure system
currently over west TX/Mex is working its way north. By 00Z
Sunday, models show that upper low only having moved into
roughly the OK/TX panhandle area...with a little more spread
through the overnight hours and into Sunday. How that upper low
tracks NNE will drive precipitation chances for Sunday...some
models track it off to our east, keeping the better chances also
focused to our east...others track it more through our forecast
area, which would give us better chances. At this point the
forecast is trended more toward that eastern track, keeping the
30- 50 percent chances along/east of HWY 281...but we`ll see how
things trend in upcoming model runs. Forecast high temperatures
on Saturday are in the upper 80s-low 90s...with potentially
breezy SSE winds as sfc low pressure/troughing deepens along the
High Plains. Better cloud cover/precip potential for Sunday
drops forecast highs back into the low-mid 80s for most of the
area...with the breezy SSE winds returning.

Next week...

Upper level flow as we get into the new work week is show by
current models to be southwesterly...as that western CONUS
troughing remains, reinforced by another system moving inland.
There will be the potential for periodic shortwave disturbances
to get ejected out ahead of the main trough...keeping those
intermittent storm chances in the forecast. Uncertainty
increases later in the week with the pattern...some models show
a return of more zonal flow as low pressure deepens over central
Canada, others keep things more southwesterly. As far as
temperatures go, models showing the potential for hotter
conditions mainly in the Tue-Wed timeframe, with forecast highs
on Wed currently in the mid 90s-low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR expected through the period with little in the way of
significant cloud cover below 5K ft.

Winds will generally be SE-S throughout the period and a bit on
the breezy side this afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Thies