135
FXUS63 KGID 301933
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
233 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...


- A line of strong to severe storms is on track to cross from
  northwest to southeast across the full area between mainly 7PM
  and 1AM tonight.

- The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging
  wind gusts up to 60-70MPH. Though not the main concern, hail
  up to the size of quarters may also be possible.

- The next chance of precipitation (20-50%) does not come until
  Tuesday night for central Nebraska.

- Highs will range the 80s on Friday and Saturday, with a mini
  warm up heading into the start of the new week (upper 80s and
  90s).

- Northerly wind gusts Friday afternoon could peak as high as
  30-45MPH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026


Tonight...

Steady southerly winds gusting as high as 20MPH early this afternoon
have helped advect in a warmer and more humid airmass today (70s to
low 80s dewpoints). Despite the excessive cloud coverage for most of
the day so far, temperatures still look to remain mostly on track to
reach the mid 80s to low 90s for much of central Nebraska.
Temperatures across some north central Kansas locations and far
southwest Nebraska areas may peak as high as the mid to upper 90s
today. The main story, however, will be of the potential for severe
weather this evening.

An upper-level shortwave trough ejecting out from eastern
Colorado/Wyoming this afternoon has lead to some mid-level pressure
falls as well as some vorticity and cold air advection across the
region. The warming temperatures at the surface paired with cooling
aloft has helped increase instability/buoyancy (up to 2,000-
3,500J/kg of MUCAPE). A 1004mb surface low deepening across central
Nebraska this evening will help steer frontogenesis across central
Nebraska and central Kansas. A cold front emerging from this process
will in turn help develop a cluster of storms. Storms organizing
into a line this afternoon, will be expected to drive southeast
through much of the area between mainly 7PM and 1AM tonight. As of
2PM today, this line of storms looks to be already taking shape in
cherry county in Nebraska based on the latest radar reflectivity
returns and the agitated cumulus observed on satellite.

A few of these storms will have the potential to become strong to
severe with damaging winds being the primary concern. Given the
presence of modest deep layer shear (25-40MPH) with sufficient
instability and moisture, the base ingredients will be met for
severe storm characteristics. Though hail up to the size of quarters may
still be possible within a few of the stronger/taller storms, the
high freezing levels with more unfavorable mid-level lapse rates (5-
6C/km), should generally keep the hail threat more limited tonight.
In addition, though heavy downpours will be expected within several
of these storms (1.5-2" PWATS), given their fairly progressive
nature, the overall flooding threat should remain limited. The Storm
Prediction Center now includes the full area in a slight risk (level
2 of 5) for severe weather.


Friday through Wednesday...

Following the exit of the storms tonight, the forecast remains dry
until Tuesday night (20-50% chances for central Nebraska). This
drier pattern will come as southwest U.S. ridging expands northeast
into the Central Plains over the weekend. The surface low pulling
east and away on Friday will leave behind gusty northerly winds that
may peak as high as 30-45MPH during the afternoon. Meanwhile, drier
and relatively "cooler" temperatures with keep highs peaking in the
80s for both Friday and Saturday. Higher pressure eventually
settling back in over the weekend will lighten winds with
directions becoming southerly again by Sunday. The start of the new
week will bring warming temperatures once more with highs returning
back to the mid 80s and 90s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Broken to overcast skies will be expected to retain across much
of the period. Ceilings as of 17z are hovering near
2,500-3,000ft. Cloud bases will gradually rise between 18-0z
(height back up to near 8,000-15,000ft), before lowering across
the evening and overnight hours. Ceilings will be likely to
drop back below 3,000ft after 6z with low end MVFR to IFR
heights retaining across much of the 8-15z timeframe. In
addition, visibility reductions from thunderstorms between 2-5z
will be followed by some light visibility reductions through
mainly 13z.

The best window for thunderstorms this evening will fall
between 2 and 5z. A gust front out ahead of the storms will be
expected to abruptly shift southeast wind directions from the
southeast to the northwest. Though speeds up to 30kts with gusts
as high as 50kts may be possible, it is more likely to be
short-lived as the front end of the storms roll through.
Otherwise gusts out of the southeast this afternoon should not
exceed 25kts. After the wind directions flip northwestward,
speeds may near 15kts during the late Friday morning with gusts
approaching 30kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump