452
FXUS63 KGID 041146
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
546 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs today will peak between the mid 20s to upper 30s with highs
  in the 30s to upper 40s Friday and Saturday.

- A system passing by to the northeast Saturday could bring up
  to an inch of snow across areas north and east of the Tri-
  Cities (20-45% chances).

- A cold frontal passage Saturday will drop temperatures to the teens
  to mid 30s Sunday with temperatures bouncing back to the mid
  30s to low 50s through next Thursday.

- The coldest lows beyond this morning will return back to the
  single digits and teens both Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 249 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025


We begin the morning off with a mass of low-level stratus layered
across the northwest 2/3rds of the area. These clouds will be
expected to scatter away through the morning hours, allowing for the
sun to poke through during the latter part of the day. Temperatures,
as result to these clouds, may not be able to fully reach the low
single digits for most places due to limited diurnal cooling
underneath the clouds. Locations east of HWY-281 (areas that have
seen partial clearing), however, may still have a shot at seeing
low single digit temps with a handful of locations even potentially
dropping just below zero degrees for a short while ahead of sunrise.

Later today, higher pressure at the surface is expected to pull away
from the east, setting up a "warm" air advecting southwest wind
pattern. Winds this afternoon may gust as high as 25-30MPH. Despite
the warming winds, one may not be able to feel much warmer as
temperatures only climb back up to near where they were before
yesterday morning`s cold front passage (mid 20s to upper 30s). High
for Friday should return back to the upper 40s to upper 50s.

The main change in the forecast heading into the weekend has been
the uptick in precipitation chances across locations northeast of
the Tri-Cities on Saturday. A shortwave trough ejecting out of the
northwest flow may stir up a few snow showers near the end of the
week. Though both global models (GFS & ECMWF) now agree upon the
presence of precipitation passing through parts of North Central to
Northeast Nebraska, their tracks are not completely matched up. The
GFS, for example, brings the system further south, clipping our
northeast portions of the area with the ECMWF taking it further north
and away from the area. Our PoPs as result, range between 20-45% for
areas north and east of the Tri-Cities. Amounts for areas that may
receive snow, will likely stay near and bellow an inch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Temperatures are starting to fall behind a cold front that
pushed through the area earlier today. KLNX radar shows some
light returns dropping southward across the Sandhills, but this
should remain to our west.

Skies clear out this evening into tonight, and winds decrease as
high pressure moves into the area. As such, temperatures should
fall off rather quickly. Winds return to the south/southwest
early Thursday morning, which will prevent temperatures from
completely "tanking," especially in the west and southwest.
Regardless, wind chills are expected to bottom out around -10 in
some areas (especially north of I-80), and local areas could see
values dip as low as -15 degrees.

Temperatures on Thursday will likely be wide-ranging. Eastern
areas may struggle to reach 25 degrees, while some western
areas could reach the low 40s, aided by increasing southwesterly
winds. Friday will trend warmer across the area, and highs are
anticipated to be in the 40s for most locations.

Chances have increased for snowfall on Saturday as a weak
perturbation drops southward through the northwesterly flow.
Accumulating snow is not guaranteed, but the latest NBM does
show a 10-20% chance for 1"+ across the northern half of the
area.

Dry (but cooler) conditions return Saturday night into Sunday.
Then temperatures trend warmer Monday/Tuesday as the large upper
trough over the central/eastern CONUS nudges further east. There
is a relatively high (50-80%) chance for temperatures to exceed
50 degrees for at least the western half of the area Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low-level stratus continues to cover a majority of the area
leaving ceilings down to as low as 800ft to 1500ft. low-end
MVFR to potentially brief IFR ceilings are expected to stick
around through 16-21z with clouds quickly expected to scatter
out shortly after into the early afternoon hours. Otherwise, a
high pressure center moving off to the east today will give way
to gusty southwesterly winds this afternoon with gusts up to
20-25kts. No precipitation is expected today and tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Stump