988
FXUS63 KGID 142315
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
615 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances return each night through Tuesday.
  Generally 20-35% chances Saturday & Sunday night with greater
  confidence for more widespread storm coverage Monday and
  Tuesday evening to night (40-75% chances).

- Strong to severe storms will be possible each day (not as
  likely Saturday & Sunday nights), with increasing confidence
  Monday and Tuesday.

- A cold frontal passage on Tuesday could provoke the greatest
  coverage of storms and severe weather potential.

- Temperatures beyond Wednesday will be on the rise, potentially
  closing in on records Friday with highs in the upper 90s to
  low 100s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Today through Monday....

Not much will be expected to change in the mid-to-upper level
pattern until Tuesday as a ridge continues to reside over the
Central and Northern Plains. Southerly surface winds also return
through then, keeping a warm and moist air advection pattern in
place. Highs will gradually raise from the upper 80s into the low to
mid 90s by Monday. Dewpoints holding within the 60s to low 70s with
warming temperatures keep the afternoon instability around, allowing
for consecutive nights of thunderstorm potential.

Besides a few very isolated thunderstorms this afternoon (best
potential across northeast portions of the area where low-level
cumulus preside), most locations should remain storm free through
the evening. The greatest forecast change over the last 24-hours has
been the decrease in confidence for widespread storms today and
tonight. Widespread cloud coverage from cirrus along the outskirts
of this morning`s passing Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), has
placed a cap on daytime warming and instability growth to a degree.
Tonight will likely become a repeat of the previous night, as storms
look to break apart just west of the area, before even reaching much
of south central Nebraska. The full picture still remains muddy as
the CAMs continue to suggest widely varying outcomes between
members, limiting our confidence substantially.

What is more clear is that an afternoon developing MCS over the
northeastern Colorado and Nebraska panhandle will race towards
central Nebraska late this afternoon and evening (similar to the
night previous). Though the risk for a severe storm or two remains
possible (full area marginal severe weather risk), it is becoming
more likely that storms will be in the process of weakening and
potentially dissipating before they even reach our western fringes
around 1-4AM. A similar story could potentially play out again
Sunday night, though our western half of the area will be included
under a slight severe weather risk (a slightly better severe
environment if storms make it there and soon enough). A few of the
stronger storms both nights could produce gusty winds up to 60 MPH
and hail up to the size of quarters.

Chances for storms will continue to increase Monday as yet another MCS
is projected to take a similar path across this time the Nebraska
sandhills. Broader coverage of storms will be possible as
frontogenesis in the lower-level could support a more expansive
linear thunderstorm feature. The best chances for severe weather
will be concentrated toward the northeast, closer to thunderstorm,
initiation. A slight risk of severe weather covers northeast portions
of the area.

Tuesday and Wednesday....

The main story in the extended forecast period will be tied to
the breakdown of the upper level-ridge as a shortwave trough
moves through mid week next week (primarily Tuesday and
Wednesday). This trough will bring in some mid-level buoyancy
from the contribution of the advection of a vorticity maxima and
hydrostatic lift ahead of the shortwave trough, where upper-
level divergence will reside. At the surface, a cold front,
beginning to take shape Monday, will move down and into the area
Tuesday afternoon. This feature will act as the primary forcing
mechanism, likely kicking off widespread thunderstorm activity
Tuesday evening to night.

Yet another day of strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be
possible as the environment ahead of this cold front should be fairly
primed for convection. The several days of southerly flow leading up
to Tuesday, will help leave a fairly unstable environment behind with
dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s and plenty of instability (1,500-
2,500J of CAPE) behind in the warm sector. The presence of deep
layer shear (35-45kts bulk shear) would complete the necessary
ingredients needed for severe convection.

Due to these forecasted conditions, the SPC included our full area
into the day-4 severe weather outlook. The severe risk Tuesday will
ultimately become dependent on where the cold front eventually ends
up, meaning the area of concern may continue to shift depending on
the confidence/placement of the front. Cluster analysis of the two
leading ensemble clusters (ones explaining the most variance between
the ensemble members), point toward a slightly further northward
placement of the trough. This  potentially greater moisture
environment (higher PWAT values) could indicate greater precipitation
efficiency and precipitation amounts potentially exceeding the
ensemble forecast mean, especially for our eastern areas. For now,
too much noise exists to say for certain.

Besides the severe weather chance on Tuesday, northward orienting
winds with mostly cloudy to overcast skies Tuesday afternoon and
Wednesday will place a hold on the early week warmup. Highs are
currently forecast to settle in the 80s Wednesday. PoPs should also
be able to take a break as ridging in the mid-to-upper levels
returns to the area.

Thursday and Beyond....

A ridging pattern aloft starting Thursday will help promote
regional subsidence and clearing skies. Rising pressure at the
surface will also help dampen the northerly winds, allowing
southerly winds to take back over Thursday afternoon. This wind
shift would reopen a warm air advection pattern back up.
Temperatures should once again be on the rise with signs of a
stronger low-level jet kicking in overnight Thursday.
Anomalously warm temperatures Friday (highs in the upper 90s to
low 100s) could potentially close in on extremes. Both the the
NAEFS and GEFS M-Climate show return intervals anywhere from
once in 2 to 10 year event based on 700mb temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Similar to the
past few nights, thunderstorms developing over the High Plains
this afternoon will gradually slide east this
evening/overnight...but again confidence in any activity making
it far enough east to impact the terminal areas is low enough to
keep any mention of precipitation out of the TAF at this point.
Winds this evening/overnight look to top out around 10 MPH,
variable in direction at times...with the late morning-afternoon
hours Sunday having more solidly southerly winds, with gusts
near 20 MPH possible at times.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...ADP