632
FXUS63 KGID 022352
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
552 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
  evening till about 8-9PM, mainly along and southeast of a line
  from Alma to Grand Island to Columbus. Main hazards include
  quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts, though a brief,
  isolated tornado can not be ruled out.

- Along with the severe potential, localized 2-3 inches of rain
  are possible in strongest storms.

- Rain showers will persist into the early afternoon hours
  Tuesday, with wind gusts of 40-45 MPH possible through
  tomorrow evening.

- Aside from a slight chance (up to 20%) of showers Wednesday
  night into Thursday morning, dry conditions will return after
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Synoptic Overview...

An upper-level trough is currently situated over the inter-mountain
west. Embedded within this parent trough is a shortwave currently
over the Dakotas, supporting a surface low pressure center in
central South Dakota, with a cold front stretched in central
Nebraska (more to come). The main vorticity maximum associated with
this system currently resides near Southeastern Colorado.

This Afternoon and Evening...

Strong southerly winds, gusting to 35 MPH, are expected to continue
through the afternoon ahead of this approaching cold front.
Furthermore, skies will continue to clear, as the surface low
pressure center continues to lift northeast. These clear skies
and strong southerly winds will allow highs to increase into the
70s ahead of the cold front.

As this surface low continues to develop underneath the parent
trough, a cold front will advance into the area. As this cold front
barrels through the area, it will serve as the main forcing
mechanism for scattered strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
between 3-5 PM, mainly along and southeast of a line from roughly
Phillipsburg to Aurora to Columbus (though this could shift slightly
depending of frontal timing). Strong winds and hail will be the
primary threat, as surface dew points over 60 degrees (high for
early November) allow CAPE values to reach 1200-1500 J/kg,
along with 30-40kts of effective layer shear. However, a couple
weak, isolated tornadoes are not out of the question, as we have
roughly 20 kts of 0-1km shear and over low-level SRH values
over 100. The main timeframe for these severe hazards will be
4-8PM. These storms could also be efficient rain producers
thanks to precipitable water values over 1 inch and a long-
skinny CAPE profile, with localized 2-3 inches possible in
strongest cores.

Tonight and Tomorrow...

While severe storms are not likely after 9PM, isolated thunderstorms
and rain showers will continue through the night, before
eventually trailing off in the early afternoon. An additional
0.10-0.25 inches of precipitation are possible with these
showers/storms. Even after the precipitation has weaned, the low
pressure center will continue to have its effect on the local
weather. Strong, gusty winds will also continue through tomorrow
evening, with gusts up to 40-45 MPH possible. Highs tomorrow
will be limited to the mid 40s to mid 50s, as the low-level
stratus layer prevents much sunshine along with some strong cold
advection through the day.

Rest of the Week ...

The rest of the forecast period will see near-
normal temperatures, with highs in the 50s, as the upper level low
hangs out in the Midwest through at least midweek. While most of the
forecast is expected to be dry, there is a small chance (up to 15%)
of showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, in the broad
cyclonic flow around the upper low as it moves east. After
tonight, low temperatures will return to to the 30s, with below
freezing temperatures possible each night, particularly for
northwestern portions of the area. Friday morning looks to be
the coolest, with lows falling below 30 degrees (freezing line
roughly from Phillipsburg to Hastings to York).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions to begin the TAF will drop to MVFR as lower
clouds build into the area beginning around 3Z for KEAR and 4Z
for KGRI. Lingering thunderstorms behind the cold front could
move over KGRI off-and-on early in the TAF period before moving
out of the vicinity around 4Z. The lingering storms could build
back to KEAR, however chances are much lower so this was left
out of the TAF. As the lower clouds move into the area, off-and-
on showers are expected over both terminals through 18Z for
KEAR and 20Z for KGRI. Ceilings briefly drop to IFR levels for
KGRI between 11-14Z then raise slightly back to MVFR levels.
Consistent northerly winds are expected throughout the TAF
period. Winds peak during the daytime hours gusting 30-36kts
before gradually tapering off around sunset.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Scott
AVIATION...McGrew