842
FXUS63 KGID 100559
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few scattered storms developing near the CO/WY/NE border may
  reach a few southwest portions of the area tonight and mainly
  a few northwest portions of the area Monday night.

- Scattered storm activity through Tuesday is expected to be
  more isolated with limited (not zero) severe weather
  potential.

- A slightly better potential for more widespread thunderstorm
  activity will come between Wednesday and Saturday.

- Temperatures through Wednesday will range the upper 80s to low
  100s. The warmest temperatures and locations mostly likely to
  see heat index values exceed 100 degrees will be for locations
  near and south of the NE/KS state line.

- Temperatures past wednesday given the increase of cloud
  coverage and occasionally stormy weather, would be likely to
  decrease. Highs could reach the 70s again by Friday (60-90%
  chance for south central Nebraska & 40-60% chance for north
  central Kansas).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026


Scattered convection initializing across the eastern CO/WY and the
western NE border this afternoon will be closely watched as they
track east/southeast through the rest of the evening and nighttime
hours. Though most of these storms will likely be in the stages of
decay by the time they are approaching our western fringe (around 9PM
to 1AM), the potential for a stronger storm to make it into the area
is not entirely zero. The locations most likely receive such storms
would be for areas mainly concentrated south and west of the Tri-
Cities. A similar scenario may play out Monday night as well, though
the focus may be shifted more northward (best potential north and
west of the Tri-Cities).

Given strong, yet elevated instability tonight and Monday (up to
2,000-5,000J/kg of MUCAPE mainly from the contribution of strong mid-
level lapse rates: 8-10C/km), a few of the larger/taller storms
could use this "energy" to be able to maintain through a portion of
the night. The main inhibitor that keeps the chance for widespread
storms and mainly the severe potential more limited, however, would
be from the presence of weaker shear aloft (20-35kts; generally
decreasing through the night). In addition to the weak shear aloft,
the nocturnal low-level jet is also projected to lie just east of
the area (given the placement of the low-level low pressure center),
limiting the potential for further convective initiation. With all that
being said, an isolated severe storm, mainly Monday night, can`t be
ruled out of the realm of possibilities even though the overall
potential appears to be more questionable at this time.

For the forth night in a row, fog remains a strong possibility
overnight into the morning hours on Monday. The latest HREF guidance
continues to have higher than usual confidence for fog potential as
70% of the ensemble members resolve fog with 50% of them showing
patches of dense fog. Virtually the same locations this morning
(areas near and north of I-80) could be targeted again given the
return of similar conditions (light to calm winds with temperatures
and dewpoints approaching the mid 60s).

The heat will return Monday (upper 80 and 90s) and Tuesday (90s to
104 degrees). Heat index values both days should range the mid 90s
to 105 degrees. The greatest heat will generally fall across north
central Kansas. These locations will have the best potential to see
heat index values over 100 degrees as well as the greatest chances
for temperatures to reach/exceed 100 degree (20-40% chance MON & 40-
90% chance TUE). The only factor that has been theorized to knock
high down by a few degrees recently and may continue to do so over
the next few days has been the presence of elevated smoke. Evident
on satellite and from the hazy skies, a few more plumes of elevated
smoke may continue to pass overtop given the northwesterly flow
regime we find the area underneath.  After Tuesday, a cloudier and
wetter (possible stormy) pattern begins to emerge in the forecast.
Highs as a result may reach the 70s again by Friday (60-90% chance
for south central Nebraska & 40-60% chance for north central
Kansas).

The upper-level flow has been gradually returning back to a more
zonal (horizontal: west to east) flow. This pattern is known to be
fairly unstable as passing shortwave disturbances can be more
subtle. Daily storm initiation tends to be more reliant on mesoscale
features that can change more rapidly from day to day (in comparison
to more predictable synoptic-level forcings). As result of this more
unsettled pattern we find the area in, forecast confidence tends to
fall more on the lower-end of the spectrum. Looking ahead at the
trends for the end of the week, the National Blend of Models
(NBM) is suggesting a more stormy pattern where daily
thunderstorm chances return each day. At this point in time, the
level of details that we can provide remain limited given the
higher than usual model uncertainty and lack of consistency
between model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Some lingering thunderstorms from the Nebraska panhandle have
made their way just south of KEAR. With some signs that they may
be fizzling out, a short tempo group for KEAR is included for
the slight chance of lightning within the next 2 hours (6-8Z).

The main impact of this forecast period is the likelihood of fog
development this morning, as MVFR visibilities have already set
up in the area. The main uncertainty is how dense this fog will
get, as the dying convection to the South may impact the fogs
development. This uncertainty is highlighted in the tempo group
for LIFR visibilities for both KEAR/KGRI between 10-14Z.
Visibilities are expected to improve with sunrise this morning.

Aside from the fog, some low-level clouds, with MVFR/IFR
ceilings, will be possible into the morning hours. This cloud
cover is expected to lift and scatter out in the late
morning/early afternoon hours, to leave scattered skies by the
afternoon. Winds today will be generally light, becoming more SE
by this afternoon. Through uncertain, fog development is also
possible tonight, however slightly stronger winds around 8-10kts
may hinder its development.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Scott