169
FXUS63 KGID 262346
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread fog is likely (70-90% confidence) to spread across
  much of the area tonight into Sunday morning. Visibilities
  could in many areas drop below 1 mile for several hours.

- Beyond a few isolated non-severe storms east of HWY-281 this
  evening, the next widespread precipitation chances currently
  lie Monday night into Tuesday.

- Highs over the next few days will gradually decrease from the
  70s to low 80s Sunday, down to the mid 60s to low 70s by the
  end of next week.

- Widespread precipitation chances are favored to bring at
  least 1-3" of precip to the area between Tuesday and Friday.
  Locally higher amounts may be possible, especially across
  north central Kansas.

- Though confidence for mid-week precipitation is increasing, a
  lot of uncertainty in precipitation amounts still remains
  (high spread between the high and low end guidance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026


Today and Sunday...

A few lingering and isolated non-severe storms east of HWY-281 this
afternoon/evening is all that would be left from the upper-level
trough that recently passed overtop of the area. Precipitation
chances across the far eastern portions of the area remain around 20-
30% as most of the coverage area should ultimately remain dry
today/tonight. This disturbance has been partially responsible for
developing the widespread showers that have deposited up to 2-6" of
rainfall across the majority area over the last few days. Now the
pattern shifts towards a brief dry, yet cloudy period as
heights/pressure rises aloft (indicating subsidence and negative
vorticity advection behind the exiting trough [stabilizing
features]). The next widespread precipitation chance will not come
until Monday night.

Tonight, temperatures will fall as low as the upper 50s to low 60s
with weak (<10MPH) easterly winds. The conditions for fog look
probable (70-90% confidence) tonight as temperatures will be on
track to near the dewpoints (also ranging the upper 50s to low
60s). The light upslope winds should also support the fog formation,
preventing fog from mixing out. The only feature that could limit
the fog potential overnight would be from the overcast sky
conditions. A potential thick layer of clouds overnight could act as
a blanket, possibly keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer than
anticipated. Despite the uncertainy, high-resolution model guidance
(HREF members & RRFS) show high confidence of widespread dense fog
forming across a majority of the forecast area (80% of the ensemble
members), especially across the western half of the area. Given the
higher than usual confidence, it seems as if the issuance of a Dense
Fog Advisory may be warranted. Beyond the morning fog potential
Sunday, the clouds looming around for much of the day should keep
the trend of 70s to low 80s highs rolling on into Sunday.


Monday through Next Week...

Cloudy skies prevailing across much of the first half of the week
(through Tuesday) will keep temperatures from exceeding the 70s to
low 80s. Overnight lows should mainly range the 50s to mid 60s with
a few upper 40s possible to sneak into northwest portions of the
area by the end of the week. Highs after Tuesday are currently
forecast to peak between the mid 60s to low 70s (recently trending
down by a few degrees). Remnants of one of the Pacific hurricanes
(Polo) will look to be stirred northeast and into the Central U.S.
around the middle of next week. This system looks to bring
widespread rain to the region and will greatly impact the forecast
for the second half of the week.

Before this system arrives, a shortwave trough ejecting out of the
Rockies could bring the area`s next chance for precipitation Monday
night into Tuesday. A cold front is projected to sweep by along with
this wave, reinforcing the near-seasonal temperatures (low to mid
70s). Most of the precipitation Monday night into Tuesday will
likely come in the form of steady uniform rain, though a few mixed
in non-severe storms may still be possible. The best guess
precipitation forecast range through Tuesday currently is currently 1-
1.5".

The signal for precipitation looks to continue one into much of the
middle of next week as moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Polo
get fed northeastward and up to the Central Plains region. Given the
anomalously high moisture concentration (PWAT values 1.5-1.75"),
steady, persistent and occasionally heavy rain could be possible
across the period Wednesday through the first half of Friday.

The mean NBM QPF between Tuesday and Thursday ranges between 1.5-
2.5" of precipitation with a 25th to 75th percentile spread of 2-3"
(very high spread ... high uncertainty). The 25 percentile for the
area lies between 0.75-1" (75% of members exceed these values) with
the 75th percentile lying between 3.5-4" (75% of the members fall
below these values [25% chance of exceedance]). This high spread of
uncertainty makes it hard to narrow down the forecast for now. Given
the track of the system (across the Southern Plains), the greatest
precipitation amounts should naturally lie towards the south and
concentrated across locations closer to the system center (mainly
north central Kansas). Much more details will be unraveled though
the week as the system`s track and precipitation forecast windows
narrow some.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There could be light rain showers or sprinkles for GRI (and
possibly EAR) between 02z and 04z. Low ceilings and fog may
begin around 06z for GRI and shortly after for EAR. Widespread
low ceilings/fog are expected by 09z and will continue until
around or just before 15z. Some of the fog may become dense
(visibility down to 1/4 mile). Ceilings will improve some after
15z but will stay below VFR until at least 19z. Brief VFR
ceilings are possible between 19z to 23z. MVFR ceilings are
expected again by 23z (if not earlier). Southeast to south winds
are expected through 06z then northeast winds by 15z. East
winds are expected by/around 21z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Schuldt