704
FXUS63 KGID 300923
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
423 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms redevelop today and tonight. Some of
  these storms could produce excessive rainfall. Rain totals
  could exceed 4 inches in localized areas.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
  on Sunday and Monday. The axis of heaviest rainfall will shift
  eastward, but could contribute to continued flooding issues in
  some areas.

- There is a low (20%) chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday,
  but otherwise the workweek looks mostly dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Currently, rain continues to slowly diminish over southwestern
parts of the area. The heaviest rainfall from last night
actually fell in the driest part of our forecast area. Over 4"
fell in parts of Harlan county, which has been 1 to 5 inches
below normal over the past 6 months.

Meanwhile, additional convection continues to bubble up over
western Nebraska and Kansas, and this trend is expected to
continue into central Nebraska/Kansas as an upper shortwave
nudges eastward. Some small hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled
out with the strongest of the storms today, but the primary
threat will be excessive rainfall. High precipitable water
values (1.5-1.7") will promote very efficient rainfall on the
order of 2 inches per hour at times. All of the CAMs from the
00Z HREF indicate potential for 3-4"+ in localized parts of our
forecast area...although there isn`t great consistency on
location from run to run or from model to model. Regardless,
multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected today
and tonight, with the most favorable timeframe being roughly
noon to 7pm. A Flood Watch was issued for the bulk of the area
(except our far south and west) until noon on Sunday.

By early Sunday morning, convection should be waning over
western areas, with additional showers and storms developing
over the northeastern half of the forecast area. Activity will
continue in this area through Sunday and Sunday night as well,
but the heaviest rain and best potential for flooding will shift
to our east.

Monday will trend drier, but a few showers and thunderstorms
could linger on the back side of the departing shortwave.
Tuesday is expected to remain mostly dry, and clearing skies
should allow most areas to return to the mid or even upper 70s.

A cold front will bring a cooldown and a chance for a few
thunderstorms to the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. High
temperatures will struggle to reach 70 degrees in many areas
Wednesday/Thursday and overnight lows could easily dip into the
40s.

Longer-range ensembles still favor near to slightly above normal
temperatures to finally return late next week into the following
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The main story in this TAF is the nearly constant chance for
thunderstorms. The most likely timeframe is the 18-22Z timeframe
(highlighted in the TAF with prevailing -TSRA), but off and on
thunderstorms are expected through the entire period.

Additionally, IFR ceilings are expected early Saturday morning
before slowly improving to MVFR during the day on Saturday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     061>064-073>077-083>087.
KS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ005>007.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels