833
FXUS63 KGID 022356
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
656 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue and southerly winds
  increase into the weekend.

- On Saturday afternoon and evening, gusts near 50 MPH are
  likely (50-70% chance) for at least northwestern parts of the
  area. This will contribute to an elevated fire weather threat.

- There is a low chance (20-30%) for a few t-storms Saturday
  night, but most will likely remain to our northwest.
  Additional t-storm chances Sunday night through early Tuesday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Ridging aloft has resulted in a warm and cloud-free day across
central Nebraska and northern Kansas today. Some patchy/shallow
fog could develop in low-lying areas early Friday morning
(similar to Thursday morning).

Southerly winds start to increase on Friday as an upper trough
moves into the western CONUS. Afternoon gusts over 25 MPH are
expected, and high temperatures will approach/exceed 90 degrees
in many locations. Steady south winds Friday night will keep
overnight low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s...around
20-25 degrees above our normal low temperatures for early
October.

Southerly winds continue to increase Saturday as the trough
pushes across the Rockies. There is increasing confidence that
this will be the overall windiest day in over 3 months.
Sustained winds in the 25-35 MPH range will be common during the
afternoon and evening hours, and gusts to around 50 MPH are
possible..especially in northwestern parts of the area.

These winds, combined with the unseasonable warmth, will result
in elevated fire weather concerns on Saturday. Grasses are still
in the process of curing/drying, but dry cropland and harvest
operations could still result in some ignitions. Humidity is
expected to bottom out in the 30-40% range for most of the area,
but western zones could see humidity as low as 20-25%. Because
of the borderline humidity and fuels, fire weather headlines are
not expected at this time. Nevertheless, outdoor burning is not
recommended.

Thunderstorms become possible late Saturday night ahead of the
approaching cold front, but the main threat area remains largely
to our northwest. A few stray storms could creep into the
northwestern half of the area, but many models keep our entire
area dry through Sunday.

The cold front pushes into the area on Sunday, resulting in a
wide range in temperatures across the area. Northern and western
areas may struggle to reach 70 while portions of KS and
southeastern Nebraska reach the mid 80s. This front then stalls
in or just southeast of our area, providing a focus for
additional thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday.

Monday will be noticably cooler...with some areas possibly
remaining in the 50s. Another round of showers and t-storms is
possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning before the
front pushes further south Tuesday/Wednesday. Highs on Tue/Wed
are forecast to be in the mid 60s...about 5 degrees below
normal. Beyond that, ensembles favor another warmer-than-normal
period to return as we head into the following weekend (Oct
9-11).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the period with
mostly clear skies and good VSBYS. Could see some very shallow
ground fog again at KEAR near daybreak Friday, but confidence is
not high and only have a couple of hours of 6SM with BR and no
CIGS in current TAFS. Could also see some marginal LLWS
overnight as a weak southerly LLJ redevelops across the region,
but kept out of TAFs as it does not quite meet criteria.
Otherwise...expect steady, but light southerly flow at both
terminals overnight...with increasing winds...with gusts to
near or just over 20 KTS...by early afternoon Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Rossi