791
FXUS63 KGID 041123
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
523 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a wet start to the week, drier conditions are in the
  forecast the rest of this week into the start of next week.

- One exception may be late tonight/early Thursday morning.
  Forecast is currently dry, but an upper level trough axis
  working its way through the Plains may result in spotty, light
  precipitation in the area. Models vary with whether anything
  impacts our forecast area or remains just outside.

- Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s linger through Friday, then
  warm back up into the mid 60s by Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 115 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Currently...

Drier conditions in place across the forecast area compared to
24hrs ago...with much of the area sitting under clear skies.
The main driver of the at times heavy rainfall we had was a
potent upper level low pressure system moving through the
Central Plains...which upper air and satellite data show
currently set up over the MN/IA border. Elsewhere across the
CONUS...broad ridging sits along the East Coast...further west,
another narrow ridge axis extends from the Desert SW northward
to high pressure over the Nrn Rockies...sandwiched between the
low over the MN/IA border and another low making its way across
NV. Satellite imagery showing the low level stratus wrapping
around the backside of the upper low is making for a stark
contrast in sky cover across the forecast area...from completely
overcast across the northeastern third or so to completely
clear further southwest. At the surface...low pressure also over
the MN/IA border is keeping winds northwesterly...and gusty at
times around 20-25 MPH again across the northeastern portions of
the area.

Today into Thursday...

Forecast for today remains dry...with the pattern continuing to
be primarily driven by the departing upper level pressure
system, which doesn`t make a whole lot of progress east by the
end of the day, ending up generally in the MN/WI area. This area
of low level stratus will continue to gradually shift off to
the ENE, bringing more sun for more of the area...though
additional cloud cover looks to start sinking in from the north
late in the day into this evening/tonight. The sfc pressure
gradient will also continue to weaken through the day as the sfc
low also slides further ENE, winds remain WNWrly, and can`t
rule out some gusts around 20-25 MPH this afternoon if skies
stay on the sunnier side. No notable changes to highs for today,
remaining in the upper 40s north to mid 50s south.

The upper level low pressure system currently over NV will
continue shifting east during the daytime hours today, moving
roughly along the CO/NM border this evening. Tonight into early
Thursday, models show that disturbance (and its better
precipitation chances) remaining south of the forecast area.
Main question lies with the trough axis extending between it and
the disturbance moving into the Great Lakes...which will cross
through the Central Plains...and whether any light preciptiation
develops over the forecast area. Models have gone back and
forth with placing spotty light QPF over portions of the
area...current forecast is dry, but not out of the question some
at least low end precipitation chances may end up needing to be
adding back into the forecast.

Outside of that trough axis moving through, the forecast
Thursday through Thursday night is dry, as models show upper
level ridging working onto the Plains. Winds look to turn more
northerly, and while not strong with speeds mainly around 10-15
MPH, they diminish late in the day through the night as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Not expecting much change
with temperatures, with highs again in the low-mid 50s.

Friday and on...

Overall no notable changes to the forecast for the end of this
week into the start of the new week...which remains dry.
Plenty of differences between models with exact details of how
the upper level pattern evolves...expecting ridging to build
into the central/western CONUS, but the overall strength is in
question. Models also continue to show an area of low pressure
deepening/becoming more cut off late in the weekend...but
confidence in exactly where it ends up is on the lower side
(looking like perhaps over the Srn Plains). As far as
temperatures go...cooler highs in the upper 40s-low 50s linger
into Friday, then gradually warm into the mid-60s by Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Today and Tonight ...

The main story of this forecast package is the evolution of the
upper-level trough that is currently situated through the
southern Great Plains. Amidst this parent trough is an embedded
shortwave, currently lifting to the northeast. This shortwave,
and its surface low-pressur center in northwestern Missouri,
supporting the dreary conditions across much of the region,
with the main rain band just east of Highway 281. As this low
pressure center continues to move northeastward, this rain band
will also slide eastward over the next few hours, bringing an
end to the rainfall area wide this evening (though some western
locations have already seen an end to this rain). Likewise,
strong northerly winds, gusting up to 40-45 MPH, will gradually
decrease through the afternoon and evening hours, with gusts
above 25 MPH eventually tapering off tomorrow morning. However,
the low stratus layer is expected to continue through the night
for most of the area (especially areas east of Highway 183).
This cloud cover, along with the cold air advection behind the
front, will limit the temperature fluctuation today, with highs
in the upper 40s to mid 50s (a temperature fluctuation of up to
5 degrees). Low temperatures tomorrow morning will primarily be
in the 30s, with about a 30-60% chance of seeing temperatures
drop below freezing northwest of a line from roughly Bertrand to
Ord (which will largely depend on how much clearing will be on
the back side of this system).

Tomorrow Into Thursday...

As the shortwave trough continues to move off northeast, the
cloudy skies will start to clear the area by mid morning
tomorrow. However, high temperatures tomorrow will still be
limited to the upper 40s to 50s, as breezy northwesterly winds
gusting up to 25-30 MPH are possible, particularly north of
Highway 30. As the main upper level low stalls over Minnesota
and Iowa, another shortwave trough passes over the area
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This upper-level
disturbance brings with it a 15-20% chance of rain showers
tomorrow evening into early Thursday morning, though widespread
precipitation is not expected. Furthermore, cloudy skies are
expected to build back into the area tomorrow night through
Thursday afternoon, limiting highs on Thursday in the 50s.

Friday and Beyond...

After Thursday, the rest of the forecast period is expected to
be mostly dry as an upper-level ridge starts to build over the
plains, though there is a nonzero (less than 10%) chance of
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures are
expected to be near-normal, with highs increasing to the low
60s Saturday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concern for this TAF period comes in the first 3-6 hours
with cloud cover. Low-level stratus wrapping around the backside
of a departing upper level low pressure system is impacting the
northeastern half of the forecast area...bringing MVFR to IFR
ceilings. For much of the night, KEAR had remained just outside
the western edge, but satellite imagery has shown the edge
creeping west with time...now both terminal sites sit under IFR
ceilings. The cloud cover will eventually start working its way
back east today, eventually bringing back VFR conditions...first
at KEAR then KGRI...but confidence in the exact timing of that
is not high. Not expecting any notable changes in winds through
the period, remaining northwesterly. Speeds mainly around 10-15
MPH...though some gusts closer to 20-25 MPH will be possible
from late morning through the afternoon, especially if there
is more sun.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Scott
AVIATION...ADP