308
FXUS63 KGID 261719
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1219 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Most of the area will remain dry through tonight, although
  there is a low (20%) chance for storms to creep into western
  parts of the area. IF storms materialize, a few could become
  strong to marginally severe (5% chance).

- Spotty chances for showers and storms continue through the end
  of the week and weekend, but many areas are favored to stay
  dry.

- This weekend will be warm with high temperatures returning to
  the 90s for the majority of the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Overall, thunderstorms severely under-performed last night and
into this morning, and recent CAMs show that the area will
remain storm-free through at least the daytime hours. This
evening, convection is expected to develop over eastern Colorado
and western Nebraska and gradually move southeastward into the
overnight hours. There is a chance that this could clip
southwestern parts of the area. Convective parameters aren`t
great (1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE and 35kt 0-6km shear), but would
support a few marginally severe storms if they make it into the
area.

CAMS suggest (very) thunderstorm potential during the daytime
on Thursday, but coverage looks to be very limited. Friday and
Saturday also look to remain mostly dry as upper level ridging
builds in from the west.

Friday and Saturday may also be the "breeziest" days that we`ve
seen in a while. Both days could see south to southwest winds
gusting 25-35 MPH. The aforementioned ridge will also usher in
noticably warmer air for the weekend. The entire forecast area
is likely to see temperatures reach the 90s, and allow 100s are
not out of the question for south/southwest areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms impacted mainly western
portions of the area this morning, with partly to mostly sunny
skies returning to much of the local area this afternoon. As
skies cleared, temperatures climbed, and most areas have reached
the mid to upper 80s over the past hour. For tonight, expect
another round of high plains convection to impact parts of the
local area, focused mainly west of Highway 183. With each
hourly model run of the CAMS pulling back the best chances for
convection to our west, confidence in storms is not
particularly high, and trimmed back pops significantly for this
evening. That said, the ingredients remain in place for a few
severe storms tonight, although if realized, they will likely
be limited to our westernmost areas (where the slight risk for
severe weather remains from the SPC).

Behind tonights potential convection, the upper level ridge to
our west begins to become positively tilted as it expands across
the local area through the end of the week. This will result in
more spotty thunderstorm chances each day, mainly focused
across western and potentially northern portions of the area
during the evening and overnight hours each day. At the same
time, temperatures will be on the increase, peaking across the
local area over the upcoming weekend. This could result in heat
index values once again climbing above 100 degrees in spots,
especially across portions of north central Kansas. At the same
time winds will be on the increase, and expect a breezy end to
the week and start to the weekend as the surface pressure
gradient increases between low pressure on the lee side of the
Rockies and high pressure to our east.

Eventually the upper level ridge is expected to weaken and shift
east late in the weekend or early next week, ushering in
slightly more seasonable temperatures along with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday night,
and then continuing off and on through much of next week. This
will be in response to a more progressive west to southwesterly
flow pattern being realized across the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Light (around 5 to 10 knots) northeast to east winds are
expected this afternoon then they will become more easterly
this evening into tonight. Variable winds are expected by late
tonight into Thursday morning followed by southerly winds by 18z
Thursday (5 to 15 knots). Showers and thunderstorms may impact
KEAR from 12z to 18z. MVFR ceilings may impact KEAR from around
11z to 15z. There is also a slight chance of low ceilings and
thunderstorms for KGRI but there is not enough confidence to
include at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Schuldt