789
FXUS63 KGID 210731
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
231 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Beyond a rogue weak thunderstorm or two this afternoon, the
  main potential for precipitation will come Wednesday (15-60%
  chances) and Thursday (40-90% chances).

- Two rounds of showers (Wednesday morning to afternoon &
  overnight Wednesday to Thursday) will be expected to deposit
  between 0.25-1" of precipitation across at least 75% of the
  area.

- The highest precipitation probabilities and amounts both days
  will be concentrated towards the northern portions of the
  area, especially for areas north of I-80.

- Temperatures taking a dip Wednesday and Thursday (mid 70s and
  80s) should rebound over the weekend (90s to low 100s possible
  SAT-MON).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026


Following the passage of yesterday`s cold front, north to
northeasterly winds will help knock temperatures down by around 10-
15 degrees today compared to Monday (highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s). Though these winds will be fairly light to steady at times (5-
15MPH), the "cooler" and drier airmass being mixed in should be
enough to keep the upper 90 to 100 degree temperatures away through
at least Friday. Aloft, height/pressure falls east of the area have
pushed the upper-level ridge back westward some, setting up
northwest flow overhead. This flow will become important to
steering any showers and storms that develop inside or northwest
of the area across the next few days (mainly for Wednesday and
Thursday).

In terms of the precipitation potential across the next few days, a
few rounds of mainly showers, though a weak storm or two could
become embedded, will be expected to pass though several portions of
the area. The shower/storm potential for today remains fairly limited
outside of a rogue developing non-severe storm or two. The better
and more meaningful rainfall potential will not come until
Wednesday and Thursday.

A cluster of mainly showers will be expected to slide down from the
eastern Wyoming and western/northern Nebraska region overnight
tonight. A few bands of rain may reach far north to northwest
portions of the area sometime Wednesday morning. This cluster of
mainly showers will march its way across several central Nebraska
locations throughout most of the afternoon. A brief lull in
precipitation is expected to fall during the later afternoon to
evening hours ahead a second and possibly more widespread cluster of
showers arriving overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

As for the first round of Precipitation (Wednesday morning to
afternoon), the best potential for rain will be concentrated
towards the north with precipitation chances of 40-65% held across
areas north of I-80. The latest precipitation accumulation
estimation projects that up to 0.25-0.5" of precipitation may fall
across these locations through the day Wednesday (mostly likely
scenario). It is also important to note that HREF probabilistic
guidance suggests that there is still a 30-40% chance for any
individual location to see less than 0.25" with a 20-30% chance for
locations to receive accumulations higher than 0.5". The rest of
south central Nebraska and north central Kansas areas will have a
lower potential of seeing rain (15-40% precipitation chances) due to
the shower`s more northern favored track. Accumulations should also
naturally decrease south of the interstate as probabilities of
exceeding 0.25" of precip decrease to to 10-30% chance with only a
10% chance of exceeding 0.5".

A second and possibly more widespread cluster of showers looks more
likely to come overnight Wednesday into Thursday along with the
passage of shortwave disturbance aloft. The probability of
precipitation increases to 40-90% across the full area with higher-
end amounts of precipitation increasing up to just over 0.75" across
the period Wednesday night through Thursday. Locations north of the
interstate have a 40-65% chance of seeing amounts exceed 0.75" with
only a 15-40% chance of exceedance across the remainder of the area
(far south central Nebraska and north central Kansas). More
details regarding the exact timing will become more clear once this
event comes in range of the short-term high-resoultion models.

Beyond the precipitation potential mainly Wednesday and Thursday,
temperatures should continue to cool some with highs expected to
range the mid 70s and 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds out of
the east to southeast will likely blow between 10-15 MPH with
gusts as high as 25-30 MPH possible across the afternoon hours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Currently...

Quiet, but toasty conditions reign across the forecast area this
afternoon...with satellite imagery showing plenty of sunshine in
place. Looking in the upper levels...a ridge of high pressure
remains the main feature for much of the central/western CONUS,
roughly centered over the central Rockies. The ridging extends
up into SW portions of Canada...with satellite imagery showing a
low pressure system working its way east into the western Great
Lakes region this afternoon. This upper level systems is
helping drive a surface cold front south through the
Plains...which is currently sitting across northern NE up into
SErn SD and MN. Ahead of this front...temps have had little
issue climbing well into the 90s to right around 100. Making
things miserable this afternoon are the dewpoints, which
currently sit in the mid 60s-low 70s...resulting in widespread
heat index values over 100 degrees. No changes made to the CWA-
wide Heat Advisory...which remains in effect until 10PM this
evening.

Late this afternoon through Tuesday...


This sfc cold front will continue to sink south through the
region this evening and tonight...and while it`s arriving too
late to provide any help with today`s temperatures, it may aid
in sparking off some thunderstorm activity later this afternoon
and evening. Satellite imagery showing a line of CU developing
from west-east along that boundary, barely along our far
northern edge. The better upper forcing is lacking across our
area...but a few isolated storms are not out of the question.
While MUCAPE values across the area are not lacking...any storms
will have to work against weaker deeper layer shear and warm
mid-level temps, so they may struggle to maintain strength. The
area is currently not outlooked by SPC for severe weather...but
any stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds, small hail
and heavy rainfall rates.

Through the overnight hours and into the morning hours on
Tuesday...there is some disagreement among models with whether
or not we see a second batch of activity develop. Model timing
in decent agreement showing the sfc front clearing the CWA to
the south between 09-12Z...with this isolated-scattered activity
developing along an elevated front lagging behind across
northern portions of the area. Because there are differences
with whether or not it occurs..kept PoPs on the lower side after
03Z around 20 percent. Have chances ending mid-morning Tuesday
with the rest of the day dry...but again there are some
uncertainties in models, some showing at least a few isolated
showers could linger longer into the day. Even if activity does
linger...not looking at appreciable rainfall amounts. Behind the
cold front, the more notable changes will be to the winds,
which look to be northeasterly through the day...and
temperatures/dew points. After the widespread 90s-low 100s
today, forecast highs for Tuesday remain in the upper 80s in the
NNE to mid 90s....not a huge change, but add in forecast
dewpoints in the 50s- near 60 vs the 60s-70s today...it makes a
difference.

Mid-week on through the weekend...

Better chances for precipitation do finally return to the
forecast...mainly during the Wednesday-Thursday night time
frame. Not expecting a non-stop rain-out or the like during
that entire period...these chances coming more in a couple of
waves. Models show the first of these shortwave upper level
disturbance working into WNW portions of the area perhaps
already as early late Tuesday night...with the better chances
through the day on Wednesday focused more across the NNWrn half
of the forecast area, with the disturbance riding more along the
edge of the ridging/NWrly flow. Disturbances moving through
later Wednesday night through Thursday look to have the
potential to dig further south into the ridging while crossing
the Rockies, helping spread those better chances further south.
Will have to see how things trend in the coming days, at this
point the overall severe threat is on the lower side...the area
not being included in any SPC outlooks through mid-week.

As we get into the end of the week-upcoming
weekend...precipitation chances look to be more sparse...as
models show that upper level ridging reamplifying across
central/western portions of the CONUS.

As far as temperatures go...with the better precipitation
chances around, forecast highs Wed-Thu are mainly in the
70s-80s...climbing back well into the 90s by the end of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Scattered showers
are possible near the TAF sites through the mid morning hours,
but confidence in a shower impacting KGRI/KEAR is too low to
include a tempo or prevailing group. Otherwise SCT-BKN ceilings
around 100 will persist throughout most of the TAF period.
North-northeast winds of 10-15kts continue through the morning
hours, with gusts around 20kts during the mid morning-mid
afternoon. Winds become light and easterly Tuesday evening.
Shower/Storm chances arrive just past the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis