427
FXUS63 KGID 131133
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
633 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures will filter
  in across the local area today.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm development is possible this
  afternoon and evening. This unsettled weather will favor areas
  generally along and south of a line from Phillipsburg, Kansas
  to Geneva, Nebraska, with a marginal risk for a few severe
  storms (confidence is low).

- Widespread showers and perhaps some weak thunderstorms will
  overtake the entire area Wednesday into Thursday as an upper
  level disturbance lifts northeast across the Central Plains.
  Precip amounts remain uncertain, but most locations will
  receive between between a quarter and three quarters of an
  inch of rainfall.

- The first frost of the season is possible Saturday morning,
  with widespread low temperatures in lower to middle 30s
  currently in the forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Significantly cooler temperatures infiltrated the region
overnight, with temperatures this morning ranging from the upper
40s to mid 50s across the local area (or about 20 degrees below
yesterdays readings). Plenty of low level stratus can be seen
on satellite encroaching on the Tri-Cities area early this
morning, although with this stratus mostly around 1000 feet or
so above the surface, do not anticipate a foggy start, but
rather just a cloudy and gloomy start across the region this
morning.

For areas that remain cloud free this morning, clouds should
continue to expand south and eastward through the daytime hours,
resulting in mostly cloudy skies for everyone by afternoon. With
the cold front pushing into central Kansas by early evening,
confidence is waning in the convective potential across the
local area this evening. 06Z HRRR keeps the area convection free
this evening excluding a very small portion of Mitchell and
Jewell counties, while the latest SPC outlook bringing general
thunder well into south central Nebraska. Given this, felt
plenty generous mentioning thunderstorm potential generally
along and south of a line extending from Phillipsburg, Kansas to
Geneva, Nebraska, but would not be shocked if our area was
missed completely by convective activity this evening given the
position of the front.

The much better chance for precip will come with the upper level
low lifting out of the southwest Wednesday PM into Thursday.
Global models have come into much better agreement bringing a
progressive trough across central Plains Wednesday/Thursday, and
thus confidence is growing in a fairly widespread wetting
rainfall across the local area. Not surprisingly, ensembles
have also come into better agreement supporting a 0.5-1" type
rainfall event over the period. Given little to no instability
over this time period, most of the precip should come in the
form of light showers, with a very small potential for a few
weak thunderstorms mainly south of interstate 80.

Finally, frosty temperatures are looking more and more likely
Saturday morning, and pulled the trigger on adding frost to the
forecast for Saturday morning with todays forecast package.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

As of 3PM, a cold front is currently bisecting CWA in roughly
half from SW to NE. Behind the front, winds have turned to the
north and temperatures are generally in the upper 60s to 70s.
South of the front, it remains unseasonably hot in the 80s to
lower 90s. Smith Center is even as high as 97F! Despite the
proximity to the front, there`s hardly a single cloud in the
entire CWA.

Main item of concern in the short term is the potential for
scattered showers and storms to develop across portions of north
central Kansas this evening and overnight as a strengthening low
level jet begins to interact with the elevated front. HRRR
trends have been fairly consistent in this idea, however, HREF
probabilities are only 20-30%. Probably looking at mainly a 6-hr
window from 02Z to 08Z before the LLJ veers to the E and the
front continues to progress deeper into KS.

For Tuesday, the vast majority of the CWA`s sensible weather
will be cloudy and cool with a chilly (esp. compared to today!)
north breeze...but mainly dry. The exception could be across the
far S/SE where convection may once again develop atop the
elevated portion of the front. The surface cold front should lie
well SE of the area by peak heating - generally along the I-35
corridor - such that the primary severe threat remains off to
our SE. Can`t completely rule out a few stronger cores taping
into lingering elevated instability and strong effective deep
layer shear, so SPC has continued to highlight far SE zones in a
"Marginal Risk" (level 1 of 5) in their latest outlook.

To go along with the trend for a more southern placement of the
surface cold front, have lowered highs across the board as
persistent and stubborn low clouds and aforementioned cool Nrly
breeze will make it quite difficult to warm up. Also likely
some systematic bias-correction issues with the NBM (for high
temperatures), as there often is during the transition months.
Far N zones may struggle to warm out of the 50s, with mid 60s to
mid 70s expected elsewhere (from N to S).

The main time frame for precipitation for the vast majority of
the area will be Wednesday into Thursday. Expect a broad area of
precip to gradually expand from SW to NE during the day on
Wednesday, peak in coverage and intensity Wednesday night into
Thursday AM, then gradually taper off from W to E Thursday
afternoon and evening. Latest EPS 25-75th percentile QPF
generally lies in the 0.25-0.75" range, though some higher
members (including the deterministic run) have pockets of
higher values in the 1-1.5" range. May have some convective
elements/lightning work into portions of northern KS Wed-Wed
night, but should be a mainly non-convective, steady rain for
NE locations. Thursday AM will be quite wet, but should see a
fairly quick downturn in coverage and intensity as we go through
the afternoon and early evening hours. Blustery N wind Thu night
should keep us from really bottoming out on temperatures and
avoid frost for at least one more night.

Forecast dries back out for the end of the work week and into
the weekend. Seasonably cool conditions continue into Friday
and Saturday...current forecast highs for Friday are only in the
mid 50s to low 60s. Our first frost (perhaps even a localized
freeze?) of the season is becoming increasingly likely for
Friday night into Saturday morning. Current NBM forecast has
light winds, mostly clear skies, and temperatures dropping into
the 30s area-wide. Some guidance is even colder in the 20s,
which does not seem unreasonable for more cold-prone locations
such as Dawson County northeastward towards Ord and Greeley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low level stratus can be seen on satellite expanding across the
terminals early this morning. While KGRI may see a brief break
for the next hour or so, expect this clearing to fill back in
with predominantly MVFR CIGS continuing into the afternoon
hours. CIGS may lift to near 2.5KFT for a few hours during the
late afternoon/early evening time frame, with CIGS then
anticipated to lower back to near IFR levels by 14/03Z. Winds
will be predominantly N to NE through the period around 10-15
KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Rossi