830
FXUS63 KGID 231735
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms move through the area
  today. Severe weather is unlikely.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms redevelop tonight into
  Monday morning, although coverage will be more spotty. The
  threat for severe weather remains low.

- Monday will be mostly dry (and warmer) with only a low chance
  for thunderstorms late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

- Better chances for thunderstorms return on Tuesday, along with
  an increasing threat for severe weather.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

As of 3am, coverage of showers and storms is starting to
increase over the Sandhills. This trend is expected to continue
as the showers/storms slide through central Nebraska/Kansas this
morning. Nearly the entire area should see SOME rain, although
amounts will be on the lighter side (less than 0.25" for most).
Most locations will dry out this afternoon, although a few
showers/storms could linger east of Highway 281 through 3-4pm.
Plenty of cloud cover will keep temperatures noticeably cooler.
Some spots may struggle to reach 75 degrees, although western
zones should see enough clearing to at least reach/exceed 80
degrees.

This evening, isolated convection is anticipated the Sandhills,
but this should weaken as it moves into central Nebraska. Later
overnight, more widespread (but non-severe) convection is
expected to redevelop in the warm-air advection regime over
eastern Nebraska. This would favor the northeastern half of the
area.

After early morning storms exit the area, dry conditions are
anticipated for the rest of Monday. This should allow
temperatures to rebound back closer to normal (80s to the low
90s).

A few thunderstorms could slide in from the west early Tuesday
morning. The primary severe threat should remain to our west on
Tuesday morning. Redevelopment is then likely later in the day
as an upper shortwave moves into the area, and some of this
could become severe. As such, the SPC has introduced a
"Marginal" to "Slight" risk across almost the entire the
forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Currently...

The day started out on the wet side for a good chunk of the
forecast area...as yet another upper level shortwave disturbance
(aided by increased lower-level convergence) made its way
across the region...with a couple spots producing wind gusts
around 60 MPH. That activity exited the area around mid-
morning...leaving behind a pretty nice day with plenty of sun.
Upper air and satellite data showing continued northwesterly
flow in place across the Central Plains this afternoon as the
pattern remains well amplified across the CONUS. The main ridge
axis extends north through the Rockies from high pressure
centered mainly over CO/NM...sandwiched between areas of low
pressure/southward extending troughing over northern Ontario and
just off the Pac NW coast. At the surface...a large area of
high pressure is centered over near the ND/Canada border, with
its axis extending south roughly along the MO River. This is
keeping winds across the forecast area easterly, with speeds on
the lighter side, around 10-15 MPH. No big surprises as far as
temperatures go...with mid afternoon readings in the low-mid
80s.

This evening on into Sunday...

Quiet conditions this afternoon will continue on into the
evening hours, before precipitation chances ramp back up later
tonight. Off to our west...radar and satellite imagery showing
scattered storms developing over the Rockies, as another
shortwave disturbance rides around the edge of the ridge, and
aided by east-southeasterly lower-level upslope flow. The main
question as the late evening-overnight hours pass is how much of
this activity is sustained long enough to move into our
forecast area. Kept the forecast dry through 06Z...and some of
the hi-res models suggest it`d be even later than that by a few
hours before activity creeps into our western edge. Aided by
lift along an increased, but not overly strong, SSErly low level
jet...models are in pretty good agreement showing at least
scattered activity making it into the forecast area. The timing
may end up not too different than last night with the onset
being around 09Z...but models suggest that activity lingers
around the area longer, potentially not until early-mid
afternoon before sliding off to our east. This activity is not
expected to be severe...models still showing that while deeper
layer shear isn`t bad (30-35ish kts), the main axis of better
instability focused just off to our west...so the SPC Day 1
outlook areas remain both west and south of the area.

Once the activity pushes east, the rest of the day Sunday is
dry, but will likely see more cloud cover linger longer into
the day...especially across the eastern half of the area. This
would impact high potential for the day...forecast currently has
mid 70s in the east to mid 80s in the west (where more sun is
possible). Between the sfc high shifting more to our east and
low pressure deepening over the High Plains...winds are expected
to turn more southerly for Sunday...with the potential for
gusts near 20 MPH across areas mainly west of HWY 281.

Later Sunday night into the overnight hours...little overall
change in the upper level pattern means there will the
potential for yet another shortwave disturbance to bring
additional storm chances to the area. Main difference during
this period is that models still suggesting this disturbance
tracks a bit further north (as does better convergence along the
LLJ)...and along with warmer mid-level temps the further SW you
go, result in these chances more of a glancing shot, focused
across the NNErn third or so of the forecast area. Severe
weather chances remain low through Sunday night- early Mon AM.

Monday and on...

Outside of any lingering activity early in the morning, the
daytime and at least early evening hours on Monday remain dry.
Models showing little movement in the location of the main
upper level area high of high pressure and northward extending
ridging into the Rockies...but do show that area of low pressure
currently off the Pac NW pushing further inland...sliding
through the southern half of Saskatchewan during the daytime
hours. Precipitation chances do return to the forecast late
Monday night-Tuesday AM...but remain low (20-30 percent) as
models vary with how much (if any?) activity impacts the
forecast area, with the better upper level forcing well to our
NW.

Later Tuesday (more the evening/overnight hours) may bring
better thunderstorm chances to the area...as that main upper
low is working its way more into MN, with the trough axis draped
further SW into the region. Storms may initially focus along an
accompanying sfc frontal boundary (though it`s not a strong
one)...later aided by an increasing LLJ. Still plenty of
uncertainty and details to iron out...as being this far south of
the main upper low doesn`t do the precip coverage any favors,
and with the sfc front and LLJ potentially not overly strong,
there are difference with just much activity there ends up
being.

The rest of the week continues to sound like a broken
record...upper level pattern remaining northwesterly
(potentially more zonal next weekend), with periodic shortwave
disturbances bringing additional precipitation chances (mainly
focused in the evening/overnight hours).

As far as temperatures go for the new work week...not any
significant changes, and not expecting any notable swings.
Forecast highs remain mainly in the 80s, with some 90s working
into WSWrn areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue to
be a concern at both terminal sites to start off this TAF
period...looking to only linger a couple more hours. Dry
conditions are expected by mid-late afternoon, lasting into the
evening hours...and possibly the rest of this period. The concern
for any additional precipitation chances lies mainly with the
KGRI terminal after midnight. Models continue to show the
potential for another round of scattered activity developing,
with the better chances across north central and eastern
portions of NE. There are difference between models with how far
west the back edge of that activity gets...with some showing
it not out of the question some could affect KGRI...so decided
to go with a PROB30 group from 07-11Z. Upcoming forecasts will
have new model data to see how things trend. As far as winds go,
winds through the period look to be generally south-
southeasterly. For the most part, speeds top out around 10-15
MPH, but some gusts closer to 20 MPH are not out of the question
through this afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP