117
FXUS63 KGID 220520
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1120 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall is tapering off across the local area this afternoon
  and dry conditions are expected to return tonight.

- Pleasant weather returns this weekend with highs in the 60s,
  light winds, and partly to mostly sunny skies (especially
  Saturday).

- Light rain possible Sunday night-Monday (30-60% chance), with
  minimal accumulations (0.01-0.25").

- Cooler weather then settles in Tuesday as a pattern shift is
  anticipated across much of the center of the country with a
  more active weather pattern potentially coming Thanksgiving
  weekend and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Cloudy skies and occasionally wet conditions were observed
across much of the local area today, with significant rainfall
(1-3"+) accumulating across our Kansas counties. Further north,
the gradient in precipitation was sharp, and parts of the area
mainly north of interstate 80 - received only a few hundredths
to a couple tenths of an inch of precip in the most favored
locations. Expect the responsible area of low pressure to
continue to track east tonight, with rainfall likely tapering
off by dark.

As the next upper level low then digs off the southern CA/Baja
coast Saturday...expect heights aloft to amplify and skies to
clear, with a very nice start to the weekend in store for the
entire region. Light westerly winds (unfavorable for morning
fog - but favorable for warmer temps) are then anticipated
across the area ahead of this low on Saturday...which should
also help boost temperatures into the 60s area wide. These
westerly winds will then shift and become more southerly on
Sunday, ahead of the aforementioned upper level low off the CA
coast that will bring increasing cloud cover throughout the day.
Despite the increasing clouds, temperatures should remain on the
mild side Sunday, with a chance of rain overtaking the region
Sunday night into Monday. This low will then rapidly move east
by Monday afternoon, and given the progressive nature and lack
of moisture depicted in the models, anticipate QPF to be on the
light side (0.01-0.25") despite the rather high pops (30-60%).

Thereafter, a cold front from the north will push across the
local area Tuesday...potentially bringing very windy conditions
to the region during the daytime hours. Behind this front,
northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated to persist through the
remainder of the forecast period...and likely beyond. This will
result in a cooler weather pattern, with occasional chances for
precip. The first chance, Thanksgiving night, is not anticipated
to be significant locally or impact many, with models honing in
on the subsequent disturbance late in the weekend that could
potentially bring the first measurable snowfall of the season to
start December.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Potential for very patchy fog/lowered ceilings resulting in
sub-VFR conditions look to linger around the terminal areas for
the first few hours of this TAF period...with VFR conditions
then expected through the rest of the period. Currently also
have a deck of upper level cirrus...which will diminish with
time tonight...leaving the rest of the period with little
overall cloud cover. Winds currently continue to be
light/variable, with models continuing to show a more WSWrly
component developing through the early morning hours, eventually
turning more westerly, the northwesterly during the
daytime/evening hours Saturday. Can`t rule out a few afternoon
gusts near 20 MPH, but otherwise speeds look to top out around
10-15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...ADP