220
FXUS63 KGID 210551
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1251 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool temps (60-70s), limited precip chances
  (mainly 10-30%), and lots of clouds expected to start the work
  week.

- Increasing storm chances mid-week, with unsettled weather
  likely continuing into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Mostly cloudy skies, a bit of drizzle and cool temperatures
lingered across the local area today. An upper level low across
eastern Wyoming on Satellite is helping to trigger a few
thunderstorms across the high plains - which if model data is
correct, should mostly dissipate at they approach the area late
this evening as they move into a more stable environment.

Overnight, a few storms could cross areas mainly north of I-80,
closer to the center of the low, as it tracks east across the
central plains. If realized, the environment remains
unfavorable for strong or severe storms due to a lack of
instability, and any storms should remain isolated and on the
weaker side. Of secondary concern, there are some hints of fog
development across the area to start the day Monday with the
latest HRRR indicating some widely scattered dense fog. Given
the light northeasterly winds and minimal T/Td spread, cannot
rule out at least some patchy fog formation, and consequently
added fog to the forecast to start the day Monday.

While some small pops remain in the forecast for Monday, most of
the local area should remain dry behind the departing upper
level low, with these mostly dry conditions likely prevailing
through at least midday Wednesday, as weak ridging sets up
across the local area ahead of the next more notable
disturbance. While some small splotchy pops remain in the
forecast at times late Monday through Wednesday afternoon, model
signals for precip mid-week with this next disturbance have
really ramped up over the past 24 hours, with most of ensemble
members indicating a potentially very wet Wed/Thursday time
period. While surface temperatures remain on the cooler side of
climo and instability is on the lower side, could see some
embedded thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday, with
more showery and less widespread precip expected to end the week
and continue into next weekend.

Overall, a seasonably cool and occasionally unsettled period is
forecast to continue across the local area for much of the next
7-10 days, with lots of cloud cover and the potential for some
morning fog at times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The TAF Period begins with IFR conditions for KEAR and KGRI with
ceilings around 800 ft. Ceilings at KEAR come close to dipping
below LIFR thresholds around sunrise with cloud decks near
500ft but current RAP and NAM guidance keeps ceilings above that
threshold. Additionally some patchy fog could drop visibility
below 5 miles between 10-13Z for KEAR. During the mid-to-late
morning, around 15-16Z, ceilings will rise to MVFR levels around
1500ft. Ceilings continue to rise in the afternoon, with VFR
levels beginning at 20Z for KEAR and 21Z for KGRI. After sunset
low stratus comes back into the area and ceilings drop to MVFR
with current guidance suggesting IFR levels returning late in
the TAF period. However, models have trended ceilings higher in
recent runs giving a chance that MVFR ceilings could remain
through the TAF period. Winds remain light through the TAF
period occasionally reaching 5-8kts from the north or northeast.



&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...McGrew