615
FXUS63 KGID 271920
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
220 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably cool for the whole 7 day forecast. Highs
  generally in the 70s, briefly warmer Tuesday, but still below
  normal.

- Low clouds and fog potential tonight especially for areas
  along and southwest of a line from Broken Bow, NE to Beloit,
  KS. Some areas could see dense fog (<1/4 mile), especially
  along and west of Highway 183 in Nebraska and Kansas.

- Scattered off and on rain chances for much of the area.
  Tonight, Rain/thunderstorms will largely stay south of the
  Kansas and Nebraska border. 50% chance of scattered showers
  for Saturday and Sunday across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Weak upper level flow is present across the Central Plains and
across the West. The area remains under northwesterly flow,
allowing any weak disturbance that moves across the area to
bring a potential for weak scattered showers or thunderstorms.
At the surface, forcing is generally weak as well, providing
generally light winds. Lee troughing this afternoon is the
biggest contributor, but that will weaken this evening as the
system slides southward.

Cloud cover will dominate the next 24 hours for most.  This evening
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the high plains of eastern
Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle, before tracking eastward
overnight, primarily across Kansas.  There is some potential (30-
50%) that areas between I-80 and the NE/KS state line could see some
rain, but by far the best chance (>70%) will reside south of the
KS/NE state line.  MUCAPE is generally less than 500 J/kg, so severe
storms are not expected.

Tonight, the main hazard to be aware of is the potential for fog,
some of it could be dense.  Reduced visibilies are possible
primarily along and southwest of a line from Broken Bow, NE to
Beloit, KS.  Dense fog is possible with less than a quarter mile
along and west of Highway 183 in Nebraska and Kansas.

Rain chances increase for the weekend, as a disturbance slides
southeast across the area.  Without strong upper level forcing, this
disturbance will impact the area throughout the weekend. Generally
speaking, there is a 30-50% chance of showers impacting the whole
area Saturday and Sunday, peaking Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 0.25-0.50
inches, with only a 25-33% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding
1.00 inch.

Labor Day will be near 80 degrees with clearing clouds and light
winds.  Enjoy the day.  The warmest day in the current forecast
period is Tuesday with highs in the low 80s.  Temps are generally
near to slightly below normal for the rest of the work-week before
warming for the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR to low VFR ceilings south and west of the KEAR/KGRI
Terminals this afternoon and the ceiling heights are not
expected to improve, but continue to deteriorate into the
overnight and early morning hours. Surface winds will decrease,
becoming light and variable and eventually lightly east to
southeasterly. The moist low levels and weak upslope flow will
support lower ceilings. Expect IFR and possibly LIFR ceilings at
both terminals. KEAR has a slightly (5% higher) chance at seeing
LIFR ceilings vs. KGRI. More significant visibility reductions
look to stay to the south and west of the terminals as well, but
2-5 SM visibility is possible (30-50% chance).

A few scattered light sprinkles/showers could impact the
terminals this afternoon, but no thunder is expected.

Low clouds will be slow to lift Thursday eventually improving to
MVFR by mid morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright