420
FXUS63 KGID 140002
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
702 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant (but brief) warmup arrives on Monday.

- Scattered thunderstorms (some severe possible) develop late
  Monday afternoon through Monday evening.

- Cooler with continued off and on chances for rain through the
  week. Highest rain totals favor southeastern parts of the
  area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Clouds have resulted in a very cool day for most of Nebraska,
although mostly clear skies have allowed portions of northern
Kansas to reach the 80s this afternoon. Tonight, another round
of warm-air-advection showers/storms is expected. That said,
CAMs generally show the highest coverage remaining to our east.
At any rate, the threat for severe weather is low through
tonight.

A few showers or weak thunderstorms remain possible during the
morning and early afternoon on Monday. This does provide a
little uncertainty on how warm we will actually get, but there
should be enough clearing in the afternoon that most areas will
reach the upper 80s to 90s, aided by fairly strong southwest
winds (gusts 30-35 MPH). Southeastern areas could see heat index
values approach/exceed 100 degrees briefly Monday afternoon
before the front moves through.

This front will provide focus for storm development in the late
afternoon and evening. Coverage and intensity is still a little
uncertain, but at least a few strong to severe storms are
possible in the 5PM to midnight timeframe. Roughly the
southeastern half of the area is most favored for severe
weather.

Storm intensity will wane Monday night, but at least a few
showers and storms will persist into Tuesday. The post-frontal
airmass will be noticably cooler on Tuesday (highs in the upper
60s and low 70s, depending on cloud cover). Thunderstorms become
likely again Tuesday night, especially in southeastern parts of
the area, as southwesterly flow aloft interacts with the stalled
midlevel boundary across KS and southeastern Neb.

This pattern then repeats itself through the rest of the
workweek. Overall, temperatures remain on the cooler side,
although temperatures could approach climatological normals
(upper 70s to low 80s) on Friday. Daily chances for rain and
thunderstorms continue, although the overall severe threat is
fairly low. Global ensembles favor the southeastern half of the
area with highest chance (>50%) for over 1.00" of rain through
the week. Localized amounts of 2-3" are possible, although it is
possible that the heaviest rain totals are realized to our east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 0700 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR conditions are expected at KGRI/KEAR to begin the TAF
period as ceilings remain below 3000ft. KEAR ceilings could dip
into IFR conditions as lower clouds in the 500-1000ft range
could lower ceilings starting around 7Z. Ceilings for both
terminals are expected to rise above 3000ft to VFR conditions
starting around 15Z and remaining there through the end of the
TAF period. LLWS is also expected as a low-level jet kicks in
around 7Z and persists until around 15Z. Winds veer through the
TAF period starting easterly and gradually flipping to
southwesterly by 0Z. Breezy winds strengthen throughout the day
peaking in the afternoon with gusts up to 29 kts possible before
beginning to subside as the sun sets. Additionally potential for
showers begins around 15Z and continues through the TAF period
with thunderstorm chances beginning around 21Z.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...McGrew