121
FXUS63 KGID 051746
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1146 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There remains a very small chance for some light freezing
  drizzle this morning (~10%) for areas primarily east of
  highway 281. Little to no ice accumulation is expected.

- High temperatures will warm back into the 30s this afternoon
  and then mainly 40s for Thursday and Friday before falling
  back into the 30s over the weekend. Overnight lows are
  expected to generally be in the teens and 20s through the
  weekend.

- No major winter systems on the horizon. We could see some
  light snow pass just north of the area Friday night and then
  better chances (20-40%) for light snow across our area Monday
  and Tuesday. High temperatures are also anticipated to fall
  back below normal (20s) starting next Tuesday (Feb 11th).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Today...

A review of the ensemble POPs indicate that the chance for
accumulating freezing drizzle today greater than 0.01" has
fallen to around 10 percent across our Kansas zones and POPs are
generally less than 10 percent over most Nebraska zones.
However, a few deterministic models still indicate perhaps a
brief period of patchy freezing drizzle across our far southern
and eastern zones, south and east of the Tri-Cities. Given that
the probability for impactful accumulating freezing drizzle
even in our most favored areas is only around 10%, have removed
mention of freezing drizzle from our forecast. This also better
matches up with our eastern neighboring NWS offices that keep
the freezing drizzle east of our bordering counties. These
changes are primarily due to the deeper saturation now appearing
to be focused further east than in previous model runs.

We will be undercutting NBM high temperatures again today by
several degrees, which has verified well the last few days.
Eventually the clouds should clear from west to east by late day
allowing for highs to climb above freezing, but it will be too
late in the day to realize much warming.


Thursday and Friday...

The upper pattern over the central plains will transition from
zonal to a weak upper ridge ahead of the next western trough.
This will be a dry and warming period for our area with highs
generally in the 40s.


Saturday and Sunday...

The next upper trough will track across the northern plains and
will bring a cold front south through our area, but any
accumulating snow should remain north of our forecast area.
Colder air will funnel south and our highs should fall back into
the 30s for most areas with perhaps a few southern/southwestern
areas still getting up into the lower 40s. Can not rule out a
few flurries from the system to our north, but again not
expecting accumulating snow.


Monday and Tuesday (Light Snow)...

There is a good deal of uncertainty during this outer forecast
period, but there is at least a chance for some light snow with
the next Canadian clipper. There will not be much moisture to
work with so not expecting much snow, but at least there will be
a chance for snow, which we haven`t seen much of this year.
Temperatures will also fall off behind this system with highs
only in the 20s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main timeframe of concern is this afternoon...as low level
stratus remains stubborn. Ceilings either side of 1k ft will be
possible at both terminal sites...and not likely, can`t totally
rule out some light freezing drizzle in these first couple of
hours of the period. Late today/into early evening, model time
heights show these low ceilings diminishing, with VFR conditions
returning and staying through the end of the period. Winds this
afternoon are expected to remain generally southerly, then
turning more southwest/westerly ahead of an approaching front
this evening. Around 06Z, this front is expected to push through
the terminal areas, ushering is northwesterly winds for the
remainder of the period. Speeds this afternoon/evening are
generally 10-15 MPH, behind the front speeds closer to 15 to
perhaps 20 MPH will be possible, then diminishing after
sunrise. Models continue to show the potential for at least
marginal LLWS at both sites around the time of that frontal
passage...so kept that mention in the forecast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...ADP