172
FXUS63 KGID 280624
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
124 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...Aviation and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fairly widespread coverage of showers and embedded weak storms
  is ongoing very early this morning. Now that any possible
  severe storm threat from earlier in the evening/night has
  likely waned, this is an overall beneficial rain
  event...albeit minimal amounts in most places...but with
  perhaps a few spots picking up a quick 1-2" in a short time.

- Periodic storm chances continue on through the middle of the
  week (mainly during the evening-overnight hours)...and we
  finally get a break from the heat the past few days. Highs are
  more in the upper 80s-mid 90s Tue-Thu, with mid 80s-near 90
  Fri-Sun.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Simply acknowledging the merciful end of the Extreme Heat
  Warning (which was allowed to expire at 10 PM):

Although it is still extremely humid across the area this
evening (dewpoints mainly 75-80), temperatures have fallen
enough that heat index values have slipped at least slightly
below 100 degrees in all areas. As a result, the Extreme Heat
Warning will be allowed to expire.

Although the next few days will be seasonably-warm, afternoon heat
index readings should mainly top out no higher than 90-100 degrees,
too low to warrant any additional Warnings or Advisories.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Currently through tonight...

Outside of the brutal heat and humidity, overall quiet
conditions remain in place across the forecast area this
afternoon. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show
little change in the ridging dominating the pattern, centered
roughly over the OK/TX/CO/NM border area...keeping flow across
the Central Plains west-northwesterly. At the surface, an
overall weak frontal boundary has sunk south through the
area...currently stalled out from west- central KS northeastward
into southeast NE. This boundary hasn`t done much for
temperatures...with 3PM obs in the mid 90s to near 100, but
separating the more easterly winds to its north to the more
southerly winds to its south. Not surprisingly, moisture has
pooled along/north of this boundary...with nasty dewpoints in
the upper 70s to mid 80s across most of our Nebraska counties,
while a little more mixing is keeping dewpoints in our south in
the mid 60s-near 70. As a result, several automated sensors have
been showing heat index values more in the 115-120 degree range
at times. Obviously no changes made to the Extreme Heat Warning
that remains in place CWA-wide through 10PM this evening.

Off to the west-northwest over the High Plains, been seeing the
development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Overall
subtle forcing aloft, along with upslope low-level flow to the
north across portions of SD and the frontal boundary across
western KS is helping with activity. The brutal heating is
allowing for steeper lapse rates and no shortage of instability
(SPC Meso page showing 3000-5000 j/kg of MLCAPE across the
region)...but deeper layer is shear is pretty low. Winds aloft
are not strong, so not seeing quick movement with any of this
activity...more just gradually drifting east with time.

This evening on through tonight...there remains the potential
for showers/storms to continue making their way east through
the forecast area. Precipitation chances remain pretty broad in
nature...models still showing some variation on just how much
coverage there ultimately ends up being. Not out of the question
that a few of these storms could be on the strong to marginally
severe side given the lingering instability...wind gusts near
60 MPH look to be the primary hazard, and the entire CWA remains
in the Day 1 Marginal Risk area.

Mid-Week...

For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, overall no notable
changes in the forecast. Models show little change in the upper
level pattern, with the main upper level ridge axis continuing
to run roughly through the High Plains. There remain periodic
chances for showers and thunderstorms...mainly during the mid-
late evening and overnight hours...as models continue to show
the potential for shortwave disturbances riding around the edge
of the main ridging and sliding through the area. Precipitation
chances Tue evening-night and again Wed evening-night remain
generally in the 20-50 percent range...with models then showing
the potential for a stronger shortwave disturbance to dig
further south, with more widespread 40-60 percent chances Thu-
Thu night. Still plenty of details to iron out with the
timing/coverage of those chances.

More noteworthy for the mid-week period is models showing a
break from the heat from the past few days. Highs Tue-Thu are
forecast in the upper 80s-mid 90s...with heat index values more
in the 90s-near 100...vs the well above 100 from the past few
days.

Friday and on...

The forecast for Friday on into the weekend dries out...but will
see if that ultimately ends up panning out that way. The upper
level disturbance that moves through Thu-Thu night looks to
give the main ridge axis a better push back to the
west...leaving our area with more amplified north-northwesterly
flow. At this point models aren`t showing much in the way of
disturbances impacting the area. This shift in the ridging helps
keeps temps closer to normal for this time of year...generally
forecast to range from the mid 80s to near 90 through this
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility along with
rain/thunderstorm-free conditions through the vast majority of
the period. That being said, the period starts with
rain/thunderstorm activity in the area, and VFR cannot be
"guaranteed" throughout. Here are the main concerns/issues:

-1) Although of the weak/non-severe variety, widespread rain
 showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will persist over the
 area for at least a few more hours, with much spottier activity
 perhaps lingering a few more hours beyond that. This activity
 is addressed in TEMPO groups through 09Z, including a VRB30KT
 wind group to address possible storm-related gustiness. While
 additional very isolated convective potential cannot be ruled
 out later in the period (mainly later Tuesday evening),
 probability is currently far too low for TAF inclusion.

-2) Mainly brief/sporadic sub-VFR visibility/ceiling cannot be
 ruled out at times, with any sub-VFR visibility tied to
 possible heavier rain and/or mainly light fog in the wake of
 departing rain early this morning, and any potential sub-VFR
 ceiling tied to thunderstorms or any "random" lower stratus
 that develop in their wake. At this time, confidence in
 occurrence is too low for any sub-VFR in TAFS, but would not be
 surprised to see at least brief (perhaps a few hours?) of MVFR
 or even IFR ceiling try to develop especially at some point
 10-15Z.

- Winds (non-thunderstorm):
Aside from any thunderstorm-related enhancement mainly these
first few hours, winds are a minimal concern, with sustained
speeds at-or-below 10KT at least the vast majority of the
period, and direction from some component of northerly
(especially early this morning) or easterly (through the bulk of
the period).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch