234
FXUS63 KGID 160613
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
113 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An even greater threat of severe weather will be present
  Monday night. The greatest threat will be wind gusts up to 70
  mph but hail up to ping pong ball size is possible.

- Severe storms may continue into Tuesday morning and again
  Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night but confidence is low.
  The greatest threat for severe storms will be south of I-80,
  particularly in north central Kansas.

- Temperatures heat up Friday and Saturday with highs in the mid
  90s to around 105 degrees with similar heat index values.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Today and tonight...

An upper ridge extends from the southwest part of the country to the
southern and central Plains. Winds are mostly out of the south this
afternoon with high temperatures today in the upper 80s to lower
90s. A shortwave is expected to move towards the area from the west
this evening into tonight. This may result (up to around a 30%
chance) in showers and thunderstorms impacting mostly areas to the
west of Highway 281 during the overnight hours. The storms are
expected to develop in western Nebraska earlier in the evening and
will move eastward. These storms, if they occur, may move into
Dawson, Gosper, and Furnas Counties around midnight and continue to
move eastward. The storms are expected to initially be strong to
severe but it is unclear if they will still be intense as they move
into western portions of the forecast area. Instability may decrease
enough for them to weaken, but there is still concern they may be
marginally severe with hail up to quarter sized and wind gusts up
to 60 mph. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s.

Monday through Tuesday night...

Showers and storms may still be ongoing Monday morning across
isolated areas although confidence is low (less than 15%). Winds
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas
will mostly be out of the south. High temperatures on Monday will be
in the low to mid 90s. A cold front, along with a shortwave trough,
will move into the area Monday night. There is fairly high
confidence (around 70% chance) that a complex of storms will move
into the area Monday night from the west or northwest. Some models
are indicating more than one complex moving into the area. These
storms will continue moving eastward or southeastward during the
overnight hours. There is also more confidence (around 50% to 60%
chance) than the previous night that these storms will be strong to
severe as they enter the forecast area with higher CAPE and wind
shear expected. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat with
these storms although hail up to around ping pong ball sized is
possible. These storms will likely still be ongoing Tuesday morning
(up to near a 60% chance). These storms have the potential (around
20% to 30% chance) to still be strong to severe Tuesday morning with
the main threat being damaging winds. Low temperatures Monday night
will be in the low 60s to low 70s. The storms will continue moving
east or southeast through the morning hours and possibly into the
afternoon hours. It is uncertain at this time if another round of
storms will develop later in the afternoon into the overnight hours
mainly south of Interstate 80. The threat of severe storms will
depend on how far south the cold front makes it during the day. The
threat for severe storms later on Tuesday into Tuesday night will
increase further south into Kansas with greater instability present.
High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid 70s
to low 90s. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the mid 50s to
mid 60s. There is about a 60% to around a 70% chance of ongoing
showers and storms Tuesday evening decreasing to 15% to 45% Tuesday
night.

Wednesday through Saturday night...

The upper trough will begin to move east of the area on Wednesday
with northerly winds across south central and central Nebraska and
north central Kansas. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the
80s with rain and storms moving east of the area. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will be in the mid 50s to low/mid 60s. Winds will
strengthen out of the south on Thursday with temperatures warming up
into the upper 80s to mid/upper 90s under sunny to mostly sunny
skies. Low temperatures Thursday night will be in the mid 60s to mid
70s. An upper ridge will be building from the Gulf Coast into the
central Plains on Friday with gusty, southerly winds across south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. This will set
the stage for heat across the area Friday and Saturday. High
temperatures both days are expected to range from mid 90s to around
105 degrees. Heat index values will be very similar to the
temperatures. Heat Advisories products may be issued if confidence
continues to increase with regards to temperatures/heat index values
near or around 105 degrees. Low temperatures Friday night are
expected to be in the low to mid 70s across most of the area and
across all of the area Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and rain/thunderstorm-
free weather at least the vast majority of the period. That
being said, an area of weak convection will pass through at
least the general area right away early this morning (especially
KEAR), with potential for a more widespread area of
thunderstorms (possibly severe?) toward the end of the period
Monday evening-night. Outside of any thunderstorm-related
outflow influences, winds should not be a significant issue,
although especially Monday afternoon will be a bit breezy with
southerly gusts into the 20-25KT range.

- Shower/thunderstorm potential (and chances of sub-VFR
  conditions):
Starting off right away early this morning, an area of
isolated/scattered showers/weak thunderstorms are making their
way through the area (currently very near KEAR). Although this
activity should not be very significant, it could at least
briefly produce some mainly westerly gusts up to around 20KT.
Have included this potential in PROB30 group 06-08Z KEAR/07-09Z
KGRI, with less potential for thunder at KGRI assuming weakening
and/or dissipation occurs.

Following what should be mainly dry/storm-free conditions
through most of the daytime and early-evening hours, things
could turn considerably more active at SOME POINT late in the
period mainly 02-06Z, as there is greater potential for one or
more clusters of strong to severe storms to move in from the
north and/or west...possibly in the form of an organized
line/complex. Should this occur, at least brief torrential rain,
gusts at least 40-50KT and perhaps hail up to around quarter
size certainly cannot be ruled out. Given this potential is well
out toward the end of this valid period, have opted to only
introduce a PROB30 group for now, and will defer to later TAFs
to introduce TEMPO and/or prevailing groups as needed.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch