524
FXUS63 KGID 160614
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
114 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storms will move into the area overnight. Some of the
  storms could be strong to severe.

- Wind gusts up to around 60 MPH, hail up to around quarter
  size, and localized flooding will be possible with the
  strongest storms overnight.

- Mostly dry conditions are expected this afternoon into
  tonight.

- High temperatures today will generally range from the upper
  70s to low/mid 80s.

- Severe storms may impact the area Monday afternoon and Monday
  night and again Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Currently watching rain and thunderstorms in western Nebraska and
western Kansas as well as central Kansas. This activity is mostly
moving westward and northward. These storms are beginning to move
into portions of north central Kansas. These storms are expected to
continue to move into our north central Kansas counties and into
portions of south central Nebraska overnight. There is a threat for
some of these storms to become strong to marginally severe with wind
gusts up to around 60 MPH, hail up to around quarter size, and
localized flash flooding. Those areas that have received quite a bit
of rainfall within the past 48 hours will be most at risk for flash
flooding. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 60s.
There is a low chance (around 20%) of fog development overnight but
it is not expected to be dense if it does develop and will likely be
hindered by the rain and storms.

Showers and storms will be lingering across portions (mainly
southern) of the forecast area after sunrise and through much of the
morning. These storms are not expected to be severe. The showers and
storms are expected to be mostly out of the area by this afternoon.
Tonight is expected to be mostly dry except for a few showers that
may develop. High temperatures today will generally range from the
upper 70s to low/mid 80s behind a cold front. Some isolated rain
showers and storms may develop tonight (mainly across northern
portions of the forecast area) but chances are low (15% to 20%).
There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms late Monday
afternoon into Monday night ahead of a cold front. Large hail,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall will be the main threats. There
is again potential for severe storms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A weak upper disturbance (MCV) left over from last night`s
convection continues to gradually shear out/weaken as it slides
NE into the Siouxland region. There has been just enough lift on
the tail end of this wave to spark some isolated to widely
scattered showers over N zones. Another area of isolated
development has been along/E of a weak convergent zone (subtle
mixing boundary?) mainly E of Hwy 281 where atmosphere is quite
juicy with temps in upper 80s and dew points in mid 70s. Hard to
see either area really taking off next few hours in terms of
coverage or intensity given what should be gradually increasing
subsidence as what`s left of the aforementioned upper wave moves
even further away.

Upper pattern remains generally unchanged from 24-48 hours
ago...so expect at least scattered convection to develop all
along the Front Range this afternoon, then move E onto the
Plains this evening and overnight. Recent CAMs (including 12Z
HREF and 18Z HRRR) have been placing the highest chances and
strongest activity across KS - closer to the main baroclinic
zone evident in sfc obs - running SW to NE across the state.
This boundary, along with overnight LLJ, should help focus one
or two MCSs overnight and into early Sunday morning. Similar to
past few nights, appears the most robust activity will tend to
favor areas W and SW of the local area, but still...lingering
MUCAPE and system organization (additional MCVs?) should carry
at least a low-end damaging wind threat into mainly our KS zones
after midnight tonight. Believe we`re seeing the beginning of
such MCS development over SE Colorado now.

Besides perhaps some lingering showers in SE zones early in the
morning, the brunt of the daytime hours Sunday appear dry and
pleasant...besides the usual/seasonable humidity. Should see
decreasing clouds through the day and highs top out in a very
comfortable range in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Very nice way to
end the weekend!

Upper pattern looks to make a slight transition from mainly
SW/zonal as it is weekend to mainly zonal/NW for at least the
first half of next week. This will be in response to a deepening
upper low around the Hudson Bay in Canada and moderate ridging
again asserting itself over the Desert SW. This will favor
frequent chances for storms as the Canadian low forces a cold
front into the region late Mon/Tue that then stalls out
somewhere over the Central Plains through midweek. Frequent
weak waves interacting with this front...along with the upslope
flow along the Front Range behind the front...should provide
the necessary lift for at least scattered storms each afternoon
that then roll E during the evening and overnight - perhaps
aided at times by a nocturnal low level jet. This is the BROAD
idea of what the pattern should look like, but of course, the
"devil is in the details".

Monday daytime hours should be mainly dry for most, if not all,
locations as the primary area for development looks to be over
north central Nebraska. Some of this activity could slide SE
into the local area during the late evening and overnight and
pose a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe wind
gusts (50-60 MPH). Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the
week, but specifics will depend on timing and placement of the
cold front. KS zones have the best chance to remain ahead of the
front through peak heating, and the latest forecast there is for
very warm highs in the upper 90s. Tuesday looks to feature the
best chances for late afternoon and evening development overhead
along the boundary, and the latest SPC Day 4 outlook implies
Slight Risk level severe probabilities (level 2 of 5). This
threat will obviously be refined in the coming days.

Wednesday currently looks to be the coolest day of the week
behind the front and perhaps in quite a bit of lingering cloud
cover. Ensembles generally indicate declining rain chances late
next week and gradually recovering temperatures - though
confidence on specifics this far out is quite low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

As thunderstorms approach from the SW and W, a low to mid level
cloud layer has moved in, producing primarly VFR ceilings, though
some localized lower ceilings to MVFR can`t be completely ruled
out. These thunderstorms are expected to remain south of the
terminals, though some periphery rain showers can`t be
completely ruled out (20-30%), mainly between 8-13Z. Likewise,
winds may become more variable, though enhanced wind speeds
aren`t expected. However, confidence in this occurrence is
pretty low, hence its absence from the TAF.

While some fog development is still possible (10-20% of
visibilities falling to or below 5 miles), the thunderstorms and
lingering cloud cover are expected to inhibit its development. As
these storms continue to move eastward early this morning,
skies will gradually clear. Mostly sunny skies are expected to
return by mid afternoon, with NE winds around 8-10kts. By the
end of the forecast period, winds will become weak and
southerly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schuldt
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Scott