141
FXUS63 KGID 161105
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
605 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers and thunderstorms early this morning will
  continue to push east early this morning...much of the daytime
  hours today are expected to be quiet. Low level clouds will
  bring quite a gradient in temperatures this afternoon, with
  near 70 in the north to near 90 in the south.

- Later today, and more so this evening/tonight, additional
  thunderstorm development is expected. This activity is
  expected to mainly affect southern portions of the area, which
  are included in the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area. Some of the
  stronger storms may produce gusty winds and large
  hail...heavy rainfall rates will be possible with any storm.

- Periodic precipitation chances remain in the forecast for
  Thursday on into early next week, but confidence in the exact
  timing/location details of these disturbances is not high.
  Thursday remains the coolest day, with highs in the mid 70s,
  before warming back up into the mid 80s to mid 90s by the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Currently...

Tail end of a complex of thunderstorms is making its way through
eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning...but
not without being pesky at times, roughly along Interstate 80
(had quarter-ping pong ball size hail in Kearney after
midnight). Upper air and satellite data showing the upper level
shortwave disturbance pushing east into eastern NE...with
activity aided by convergence along a 30-35kt low-level
jet...the back edge also having slightly better shear/mid-level
lapse rates to tap into. This activity will continue pushing
east over the next couple hours, leaving the forecast area
dry...though will be watching some additional activity currently
over the NE panhandle, models suggesting it won`t make it far
enough east to impact the forecast area, but we`ll see. At the
surface, the main outflow boundary has pushed just past our
forecast area`s southern border...switching winds over to the
east for areas north to around the I-80 corridor, where another
boundary separates those easterlies to more northerly winds to
the north. Speeds overall are mainly around 10-15 MPH.

Today and tonight...

Once this activity pushes off to the east of the forecast area,
models suggesting fairly quiet conditions for much of the day
today...sitting under continued generally zonal flow in the
upper levels, in between shortwave disturbances. At the surface,
that main frontal boundary looks to meander a bit, hanging
around far southern portions of the forecast area through the
day. This will keep winds NNErly for the majority of the
area...more variable in direction closer to that boundary.
Satellite imagery early this morning showing that while the mid-
upper level cloud cover associated with this convection is
sliding east, a large area of lower level stratus is gradually
sinking south. These northerly winds and low level clouds is
what keeps confidence in high temperatures on the low side
today...forecast still has about a 20 degree gradient from far
north to far south. This is especially the case across central
portions of the forecast area...sitting along the edge of
however far south that stratus sinks and cloud skies to the
north, and more sun to the south. Forecast has right around 70
in far northern areas (which may be too optimistic), to right
around 90 in the far south...with mid 70s-near 80 in central
areas.

Later today, and more so this evening, this surface boundary
will provide a focus for another round of thunderstorms, as
yet another upper level shortwave disturbances emerges out onto
the central High Plains. This initial more surface based
activity is show by models to remain mainly focused across far
southern portions of the forecast area...potentially just
outside of our southern border. Of more concern will be further
into the evening and overnight hours...with models continuing to
show the potential for additional activity spreading further
north across our forecast area, driven by more elevated forcing.
Latest model runs aren`t in too bad of agreement with the
location, keeping it mainly focused over areas south of HWY 6
and into north central KS. Better instability is expected to be
focused to our south, and deeper layer shear increases with
time...so some strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out...and
the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area extends across southern
portions of the area. While gusty winds/large hail are
concerns...so will heavy rainfall rates, so any activity that
trains will bring a concern for flooding, but they have had a
few dry days lately.

Thursday on into early next week...

Overall, really no notable changes in things for the middle and
latter portions of this 7-day forecast period. Models remain in
pretty good agreement in the broader scale...keeping upper level
flow generally zonal through the period. The forecast area
looks to sit between high pressure spread across much of the
southern CONUS, a larger area of low pressure over Hudson Bay
area, with additional systems move int western/central Canada.
Periodic shortwave disturbances embedded in this zonal flow
keeps shower/storm chances in the forecast each day Thursday
through early next week. At this point, forecast has a relative
lull in chances for Thursday and Friday (20-30 percent), picking
back up Fri night into the weekend (30-50 percent)...but
honestly, it`s hard to have a high degree of confidence in
timing/location details in any of these chances.

In the wake of this ongoing activity and what`s expected later
today/tonight...Thursday is still forecast to be the coolest day
of this 7-day period, and if several models are right with
keeping things mostly dry, it`ll be a pretty nice day. Mainly
easterly winds are expected, with partly cloudy skies...and high
temperatures remain forecast to top out in the mid 70s. For the
end of the week, highs don`t waste any time bouncing
back...with highs back in the mid 80s to mid 90s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Satellite imagery showing that while the terminal sites are
currently in a lull of cloud cover, it will be a short-lived
one, as low-level stratus spread across the area. Forecast for
this period is on the pessimistic side, with MVFR conditions
forecast. Models/guidance and area obs showing there will be the
potential for IFR (possibly LIFR) conditions...and have a
mention of that through mid-morning. Confidence in the timing of
those lowest ceilings is on the low side. Kept any mention of
precipitation out of this forecast...models are in good
agreement focusing the best chances to the south of the
terminals. Winds through the period look to be NNErly, with
speeds topping out around 15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP