483
FXUS63 KGID 110555
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1255 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms will be possible FRI evening into the
  overnight hours. Storms can be marginally severe with 60-mph
  winds and quarter-sized hail.

- Showers during the day on SAT will potentially give way to
  evening storms primarily for our KS counties.

- Severe chances return MON evening, with more details to be
  ironed out as we get closer.

- Overall, cooler and breezier conditions are expected by the
  weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

No precip is expected today (THU) through at least FRI evening,
outside of a very low chance (<10%) for a quick pop-up
thunderstorm in our far western CWA.

Tomorrow (FRI), temps will be in the 80s F to low 90s, but heat
indices will not a concern. A few isolated thunderstorms will
be possible for our southwestern CWA during the early evening as
a surface low develops in SD and an approaching associated
front stalls over west-central KS. This front will stall beneath
subtle mid-level diffluence / jet forcing. However, confidence
in these storms developing remains low as the best jet streak /
advective forcing aloft looks to remain off to the east, and
700-hPa temperatures are expected to hold around 10 C. Overall,
12z HREF probabilities suggest 30 - 50% chances for these storms
to develop. If storms do develop, however, severe hazards will
be possible with pockets of severe winds and hail owing to steep
low-level lapse rates beneath thicker CAPE profiles in the hail
growth zone. Additionally, southerly sustained winds of 15 - 20
mph with gusts up to 30 mph are possible for the northern and
central portions of our CWA, particularly in the during peak
heating.

Overnight FRI into SAT, a few more storms are anticipated to
work across our north-central CWA counties as the stalled front
begins to advance east with its parent shortwave. SPC currently
has this area on the edge of their SLGT risk zone, with wind and
hail as hazards. Marginally-severe hail looks the likeliest as
storms are expected to stay elevated on the cool side of the
passing front, which will likely help limit winds aloft from
mixing down to the surface. Non- thunderstorm gusts early SAT
morning can reach 25 mph on the backside of the advancing front
for our western and northern counties, with lows bottoming out
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Isolated to scattered showers will linger for eastern counties
on SAT through the late morning and afternoon hours. The
previous night`s cold front (potentially augmented by stalled
outflow) will come to rest just southeast of our KS counties.
Storms may initiate along this boundary in the evening and move
along / north of this boundary, as indicated by most members of
the 12z REFS. Given PWATs of 1.6 - 1.8 in on SAT evening,
localized flooding for our far southeastern CWA will need to be
monitored, but no major impacts are anticipated.

Sunday will be serve as a transition day between two troughs.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, but severe
probabilities look low. An isothermal layer up to near 700 mb
owing to ridging between the troughs will likely keep most of
this precip non-storm related, where storms would be reserved to
localized pockets of strong mesoscale ascent. SUN will also be
breezy, with gusts in the 25 - 30 mph range from late morning
lasting through SUN and into MON.

Monday is expected to return severe chances to our CWA as the
next trough arrives in the evening hours with 35 - 45 kts of
right- entrance flow at 500 mb per the 12z GEFS. The 06z EPS
also suggests that a potent 850-mb LLJ will be in place late MON
night with the nose placed over east-central NE. SPC currently
holds us in their Day 5 15% outlook. Outside of storms, MON will
be windier with gusts up to 35 mph. Lows Tuesday morning behind
the cold front will dip to the upper 40s F for our far
northwestern CWA, and broader 50s F for most.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry, VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. A slight
chance of sub VFR ceilings (down to near 1000ft) is possible
from 9-16Z. This was highlighted by the low scattered group, as
in the last TAF. Marginal LLWS around 25-28kts still remains a
possibility between 7-13Z this morning, though not included in
the TAF due to being below criteria. Strong southerly winds
gusting to 25-28kt are possible this afternoon. While not
included in the TAF due to forecast uncertainty, thunderstorms
are possible near KGRI/KEAR after 23Z, though recent model
guidance has kept thunderstorm activity south of the terminals.
An approaching cold front will lead to a northerly wind shift at
the end of the period. This detail was left out of this current
TAF due to frontal timing uncertainty and its occurrence at the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Scott