586
FXUS63 KGID 031153
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
653 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- We remain in a very active...but tricky-to-forecast
  rain/thunderstorm chances pattern, with at least some portion
  of our forecast area (CWA) carrying at least a small chance
  of rain/storms nearly every day and night due to a seemingly
  non-stop parade of mainly low-amplitude upper waves pushing in
  from the west.

- Each of the next three days (Wed-Fri) will carry at least
  some threat for severe storms. Today and Thursday, much of our
  CWA is under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for at least a
  few strong to marginally-severe storms, while Friday (albeit a
  few days out and of lower confidence) now looks to carry a
  conditional threat for perhaps a few more intense
  storms...with SPC introducing a Slight Risk (level 2) to
  roughly half of our CWA.

- Thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend, but currently
  look to carry sparser coverage and a lower risk for severe
  compared to these next three days.

- In addition to a severe storm threat, especially this evening
  through Friday night will carry a continued threat for at
  least isolated/localized flooding (as evidenced by WPC
  Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall). So far over the last ~
  4 days we`ve been fairly fortunate in "spreading rain around"
  pretty well in moderate doses, but we`ve also seen a few
  localized bullseyes of at least 2- 4" that fell too fast and
  caused mainly minor flooding...and suspect that we`ll see a few
  more of these over the coming days.

- Temperature-wise: Overall a very persistent/consistent stretch of
  slightly above normal warmth continues. Highs on most of the
  next 7 days mainly in the 80s (occasional low 90s mainly
  south/west)...and overnight lows mainly low-mid 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 513 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Some up-front honesty: This forecaster was about to send a
typical longer/more detailed discussion a bit ago, but made the
rare mistake of not hitting the "save" button and it ended up
going into the "great abyss". Alas, in the interest of time,
here is a more abbreviated version mostly in "bullet point"
format:

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
Although still three days away and of some definite uncertainty,
cannot argue with SPC introducing a Slight Risk to roughly half
of our CWA on the latest Day 3 outlook for Friday. Given a
fairly potent combination of 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE/instability and
perhaps at least 35-40KT of deep layer shear, a few intense
supercells with at least a large/very large hail threat could
develop. These storms could focus within a fairly narrow swath
of the CWA however wherever a surface boundary sets up (yet to
be refined).


-- SOLELY FOCUSING ON THESE NEXT 48 HOURS (again, in brief):
--  CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER:
- An overall-drier night than expected, as we remained south of
  a northern NE storm complex and north-northeast of spotty
  showers/a few weak storms over central/western KS.

-- TODAY (through around 7 PM):
- Kept any morning slight rain/thunderstorm chances to only far
  northern/southwestern parts of our CWA.
- MOST of the afternoon should remain dry as well, but with
  1000-2000 J/kg of weakly-capped instability building, cannot
  totally rule out a rogue, slow-moving storm almost anywhere so
  have slight (20% chances entire CWA.
- High temps mainly 82-85 degrees...somewhat breezy south-
  southeast winds sustained 15-20 MPH/gusts 20-25 MPH.


--  THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (mainly after 7 PM):
- Chances for at least isolated/scattered storms increase as
  lift increases from an upper wave approaching from the south-
  southwest.
- Overall-most widespread rain chances probably favoring the
  northern 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA especially if a larger-scale
  complex/cluster heads due east out of western NE
- Cannot rule out a few strong to marginally severe
  storms...main threats 50-60 MPH winds (especially along
  leading edge of outflow from a storm complex) and mainly
  smaller hail perhaps up to around nickel size.
- Spotty pockets of at least 1-2" of rain in a short time and
  localized flooding possible.
- Low temps mainly low 60s.


-- THURSDAY DAYTIME (through around 7 PM):
- Opposite of most recent setups, the DAYTIME hours here likely
  carry higher storm chances than the evening-overnight will,
  as the upper wave that gets storms going tonight slowly
  traverses our area from west-to-east during the day Thursday.
- Any morning storms mainly weak...but as at least 1500-2500
  J/kg instability builds in the afternoon and deep-layer shear
  increases to around 30KT, especially the eastern half of our
  CWA (counties along/east of Hwy 281) could see a round of
  scattered strong to severe storms with a hail/damaging
  wind/localized flooding threat.
- Later SPC outlooks may need to consider expanding Marginal
  Risk down into at least eastern parts of our KS zones and
  perhaps removing risk from our western counties if these
  trends hold.
- High temps very similar to today...mainly 82-86.


-- THURSDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
- While storms (possibly marginally-severe?) could still be
  ongoing early in the evening mainly in our far eastern
  counties, the departure of the upper wave to our east likely
  results in a dry/mostly dry later evening-overnight.
- Low temps very similar to tonight...mainly low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

An upper low/trough is over southern Canada, northern Rocky
Mountains, and northern Plains. Another upper low/shortwave trough
is over south central Kansas. Winds across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas are mostly out of the southeast.
High temperatures today will generally range from the mid 70s to
low/mid 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are developing across
portions of the area and are expected to continue until around 10
PM. The most likely area for storm development will be along and
east of a line from Kearney to Smith Center. Some strong storms have
developed but severe storms are not expected with fairly low lapse
rates and wind shear. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
mid 50s to low/mid 60s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
move into portions of the area from the southwest tonight mainly
impacting areas southwest of the Tri-Cities.

Winds will mostly be out of the south to southeast on Wednesday with
high temperatures mainly in the low to mid 80s. Storms may again
develop on Wednesday across portions of the area as shortwaves move
over the area. Surface CAPE values of around 2,500 to near 3,500
J/kg are expected on Wednesday. Wind shear will be a little higher
Wednesday than today with values of around 25 to 40 knots. Mid-level
lapse rates will be between 5.5 and around 7 degrees C/km. The
highest values of all the above mentioned parameters will generally
be across the western half of the forecast area. Areas generally
along and west of Highway 281 are in a marginal risk of severe
weather per the Storm Prediction Center Day 2 outlook. Any severe
development is mainly expected during the evening and early
overnight hours. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be similar or
a few degrees warmer than the previous night.

An upper trough will move over the area Thursday with more showers
and thunderstorms expected to develop. Severe weather parameters are
expected to be less than the previous day so widespread severe
weather is not expected. Cannot out rule an isolated strong to
severe storm or two. High temperatures on Thursday will
generally be similar to the previous couple of days. Low
temperatures Thursday night will generally range from the mid
50s to mid 60s.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend beginning on Friday with
highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Various chances of
showers and thunderstorms will continue to be present Friday through
Monday as troughs pass over/near the area. At this time, severe
weather potential is unknown but will continue to monitor as time
gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
Although there are some uncertainties lurking in the details,
prevailing VFR ceiling/visibility is expected through most of
the period, along with rain/thunderstorm-free conditions through
at least these first 12 hours. That being said, it is now
looking likely that at least intermittent MVFR ceiling will
occur this morning a As for winds (and not accounting for any
possible convective outflow influences), things seem fairly
straightforward, with a southeasterly to southerly direction
prevailing throughout. Sustained speeds through most of the
period should prevail at-or-below 12KT, with the overall-
strongest breezes focused 16-01Z with sustained speeds roughly
15KT/gusts 20-25KT.

- Ceiling uncertainties and MVFR potential:
It turns out that some of the model trends mentioned in 06Z
discussion were onto something, as at least patches of MVFR
stratus have developed across the area and will likely persist
through at least this morning. Have introduced TEMPO groups
focused 13-17Z to account for this, as this will probably not be
a truly prevailing feature. Additional MVFR is possible very
late in the period early Thurs AM but could be disrupted by
convection, so have kept ceilings VFR.

- Shower/thunderstorm uncertainty:
We remain in a weather pattern that breeds lower-than-usual
confidence in the details of convection...including
likelihood/placement/intensity. There is a low probability (20%)
that spotty convection could develop in the general area during
heating of the mid-late afternoon, but this is considered too
low of a probability for TAF inclusion. The more likely scenario
is for a cluster or complex of showers/thunderstorms to move in
from the west-southwest anytime after 00-01Z as increasing
upper lift arrives. Considered going with TEMPO groups for some
of this, but with it still just beyond the first 12 hours opted
to maintain several hours of PROB30. IF any storms do impact
KGRI/KEAR, severe weather is fairly unlikely (albeit non-zero),
but gusty winds/brief heavy rain/small hail cannot be ruled out.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch