497
FXUS63 KGID 012041
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
241 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers will increase in coverage and intensity
  tonight and will continue (off and on) through Tuesday.

- Thunderstorms may develop tonight (non-severe) and are
  expected again Monday afternoon and evening (some may be
  strong to severe).

- Gusty winds are expected from tonight through Tuesday with a
  brief break Monday afternoon before increasing again Monday
  evening. Gusts up to 40 to 50 MPH are possible in some areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

An upper level trough extends from Canada southward to California.
Nebraska and Kansas are just ahead of the upper trough with mainly
southeast winds across the forecast area. High temperatures today
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas
will be hindered by the persistent cloud cover but are expected to
be in the upper 50s and 60s. Light rain showers are expected to
continue through the rest of the afternoon into tonight.
Precipitation intensity and amounts are expected to increase by late
tonight across portions of the area. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop with the heaviest precipitation under these storms. Rainfall
amounts tonight will generally be a quarter of an inch or less
except in areas of thunderstorms where amounts of around an inch may
occur. Winds will increase out of the southeast this evening into
tonight (sustained at around 15 to 25 MPH) as a low-level jet moves
over the area. The winds along with the persistent cloud cover will
prevent temperatures from cooling much overnight. In fact,
temperatures may warm slightly as the night progresses with
increasing wind speeds and heavier rainfall. Lows tonight are
expected to be in the 50s and 60s.

The upper trough/low moves over the central Plains on Monday. The
showers and thunderstorms are expected to mainly be out of the
forecast area by noon on Monday with skies clearing during the
afternoon. A surface trough will be across the area during the
afternoon with gusty, southerly winds (sustained at around 15 to 25
MPH with gusts possibly up to 40 to 50 MPH in some areas). There is
some uncertainty with high temperatures on Monday due to the timing
of a cold front, strength of the surface trough, and departure
timing of the precipitation and cloud cover. Generally think
temperatures will warm up into the mid 60s to mid/upper 70s. There
is a possibility (20% to 30% chance) of temperatures reaching the
low 80s in portions of north central Kansas. The timing of the cold
front across the forecast area is expected to range from the mid
afternoon through late evening. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front during the afternoon into the
evening hours. Some of these storms may become strong to severe
depending on if the atmosphere has enough time to destabilize
between the exiting rain and cloud cover earlier in the day to the
timing of the cold front. Tend to think there will be enough
destabilization for strong to severe storms to develop. Storm
development could be as early as 3 PM and as late as around 7 PM.
Temperatures Monday night are expected to cool into the 40s and low
50s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger into Monday
night.

The upper level trough/low will remain across the area on Tuesday
but will be a little further east. The cold front will continue
pushing through the area with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
Rain showers are expected to continue across portions of the area on
Tuesday. Expect gusty, northerly winds on Tuesday with gusts up to
around 40 MPH possible in some areas. Low temperatures Tuesday night
are expected to cool into the 30s and 40s. A slight warm up is
expected on Wednesday with drier conditions. High temperatures will
continue to be in the 50s and 60s Thursday through Saturday with low
temperatures generally in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low ceilings are expected to continue through 18z Monday but may
vary between LIFR and MVFR. Some improvement in ceilings may
occur briefly this afternoon (maybe to MVFR) but will decrease
again by 00z. Improvement is again expected around 16z Monday
possibly to MVFR. Sprinkles/mist may develop this afternoon with
rain picking up in intensity/coverage tonight by 09z. Some
thunderstorms may develop between 09z and 15z. The rain and
storms will clear out of the area from west to east by 18z. Wind
shear is expected beginning this evening and possibly continuing
until around 14z. Winds will be out of the southeast this
afternoon and will increase to around 15 to 20 knots around 03z
with higher gusts. Winds will again increase to around 20 knots
at around 09z and will decrease some and become more southerly
by 15z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt