288
FXUS63 KGID 270956
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
456 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of intense heat and humidity, despite the arrival
  of a weak cool front. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for
  the entire forecast area given expectations for max heat
  indices of 105-115 degrees.

- There is a 30-60 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
  this evening and overnight, highest W of the Tri-Cities. There
  is a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for some of this activity to
  become severe. Main threat is damaging wind gusts up to 60mph.

- Beyond today: although not truly "cool" by any means, more
  manageable/typical high temps mainly upper 80s-mid 90s look to
  prevail starting Tuesday...ending the need for any additional
  heat headlines.

- There will be occasional showers and thunderstorm chances
  Tuesday through Thursday night as a series of disturbances
  work around a strong upper ridge centered over the S Plains.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Main forecast concern is once again the combination of intense
heat and humidity. While some of our W and NW counties may not
get quite as bad as this past weekend...we`re once again off to
a very warm start, and there really hasn`t been much of an air
mass change just yet. A weak cool front will move in from the NW
this morning, but guidance is in decent agreement that
temperatures behind this front will only be a few degrees
cooler. However, any practical sense of "cooling" with this
front will likely be offset by still high low level moisture
that often tends to "pool" along and behind these types of slow-
moving and weak fronts. Also, factor in that today will be the
third day in a row of intense heat, cumulative effects can still
cause impacts - thus the reason for the recent expansion of the
Excessive Heat Warning to include ALL of our forecast area.

Areas immediately along the front this afternoon...which looks
to run from around Lincoln to Superior to Hays...could
experience particularly "brutal" conditions given what should be
almost little to no wind. Winds will be breezy out of the S/SW
ahead of the front, and areas behind the front will see a shift
to 10-15 MPH NErly winds...but along the front winds will be
variable and quite light. As such, WBGT values in these areas
are expected to reach levels in which NO strenuous outdoor
activities in direct sunlight are advised.

One last thing to note on today`s heat/humidity...most models,
even short-term hi-res CAMs...have really struggled with the
amount of evapotranspiration coming off of the crops, but also even
the ambient air temperatures, as well. This may very well
happen again today. Bottom line...we want to emphasize that
today is not one to let your guard down despite what you may see
as "cooler" temperatures on quick glance on a phone app.

As for thunderstorm chances...appears we`re still on track for
at least somewhat better rain chances this evening and
overnight, roughly 30-60% compared to the 20-30% last evening.
Generally expect initial development to occur off to our W along
the Front Range/High Plains this afternoon, then gradually
shift E/SE this evening and overnight. The overall magnitude of
intensity and coverage remains a bit uncertain given rather weak
forcing aloft and still relatively warm mid level temperatures
(700mb temps ~17-18C!). IF activity off to our W can develop
some sort of organization and mesoscale lift (cool pool, MCV,
etc.) then there obviously would be plenty of moisture and
instability for this activity to work with in our area. Timing
and lack of substantial deep layer shear suggests a limited
severe threat that`s likely tied to localized damaging wind
gust potential. The latest SPC convective outlook covers nearly
the entire forecast area with a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
this potential. Finally...while widespread hydro issues are NOT
expected given recent dry, hot weather...some of the heavier
cores tonight could be rather efficient at producing heavy rain
rates of 1-2"/hr. If these occur over relatively urban or flash
flood prone locations, then some brief issues can`t be ruled
out. Highest chances for rain will be over our W third (roughly
along/W of Hwy 183), with gradually decreasing chances with time
tonight further E.

Should actually experience some more substantial/noticeable
heat/humidity relief for Tuesday...though really only back to
"seasonable" levels with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
dew points in the 60s to lower 70s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A north to northeast wind shift will begin moving into the area on
Monday. This boundary does not appear like it will have much impact
on temperatures, but models are showing an increase of moisture
behind the boundary. Winds are expected to increase out of the
northeast behind the boundary which may help to mix out some of the
low-level moisture. There are uncertainties as to how much of an
influence this boundary will have on temperatures, moisture, and
cloud cover for Monday. There is higher confidence across north
central Kansas for the combination of temperatures (around 100 to
106 degrees) and moisture to produce heat index values near or above
110 degrees for Monday. For this reason, the Heat Advisory across
this area was upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning which is in effect
until 10 PM Monday. There is lower confidence (due to the above
mentioned factors) across south central and central Nebraska so
those areas were not upgraded at this time. Although, the Nebraska
counties bordering Kansas have the highest likelihood of
reaching Extreme Heat criteria on Monday and there is fairly
high confidence (around 70%) that some areas in these counties
may have heat index values near/around 110 degrees on Monday.
Heat index values across our Nebraska counties are expected to
range from around 101 in Ord to around 106 to 110 degrees across
the far southern row of counties. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible (up to around a 50% chance) Monday evening and
night as an upper disturbance moves overhead from the west. The
highest chances will be across western portions of the area
(mainly west of the Tri-Cities area). Some of these storms may
become strong to marginally severe with wind gusts up to around
60 MPH being the main threat. The showers and storms will move
eastward as the night continues.

Cooler temperatures are expected beginning Tuesday (highs in the
upper 80s to low/mid 90s) as a surface high moves across the area.
High temperatures in the 80s and 90s will continue through the end
of the week. Low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Various
rain and storm chances will continue Tuesday through Thursday night
as upper disturbances move over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
The vast majority of the period features high confidence VFR
ceiling/visibility, with mainly just varying degrees of passing
mid/high level cloud cover. That being said, there are three
possible concerns worth discussing:
- 1) Ongoing marginally-strong low level wind shear (LLWS)...see
  below for more on this.
- 2) A low probability for some brief light fog mainly a few
  hours either side of sunrise this morning, that IF it forms
  could reduce visibility to mainly MVFR category (this is only
  "hinted" at for now with a "6SM BR" group).
- 3) Very late in the period (mainly after 02-03Z), scattered
  showers/thunderstorms (possibly even strong to marginally-
  severe with gusty winds?) become a possibility. Given this is
  still well into the latter hours of the period and there are
  various uncertainties in the details, have opted to get the
  ball rolling with a PROB30 group for now.

- Winds:
- Surface winds:
Aside from any potentially strong thunderstorm outflow later
Monday evening (not a sure thing), winds will remain tame (under
12KT) at least the vast majority of the period. There will be
directional shift from southerly early this morning, to
northerly-then-more-easterly during the day and into the evening
behind a weak cool front. Some gusts of 16+KT are possible
especially this afternoon.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
Have maintained a LLWS group for these next few hours through
10Z, as shear magnitude will likely continue reaching 30+KT
between the surface and the 1-2K ft. AGL layer. During this
time, southwesterly winds within the lowest 2K ft. AGL will
commonly peak around 40KT...before weakening and turning more
westerly/northerly beyond 10Z in response to the approaching
cool front.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch