922
FXUS63 KGID 291932
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
232 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will move in from the west northwest late this
  afternoon into the evening. Some could be marginally severe,
  mainly west of Highway 183 in the 6pm-11pm timeframe.

- Additional rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms are
  likely through the Labor Day Weekend, with more widespread
  activity expected Saturday afternoon/evening. Severe weather
  is not anticipated.

- Precipitation chances become much more spotty Tuesday onward,
  with cool weather continuing (high mostly in the 70s, but
  possibly only 60s Wednesday/Thursday)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Another cloudy and cool day across the area. A line of showers
along with some light rain/drizzle impacted parts of the area
this morning...with the most favored locations receiving around
0.10" of precipitation.

Some more convective looking showers are starting to develop to
our northwest this afternoon, and models key in on the activity
across South Dakota this afternoon - eventually tracking south
and expanding in areal coverage this evening. Currently, the SPC
slight risk for severe weather clips our far western counties,
with the more marginal risk for severe weather now extending
east towards a Holdrege, Kearney St. Paul, NE line. The 18Z HRRR
(and multiple prior runs) dives this developing area of showers
and thunderstorms across areas mainly along and west of Highway
281 late this evening and through the overnight hours, with
little precipitation anticipated further east before daybreak
Saturday. Given the marginal instability (500-1000J/KG), modest
deep layered shear and a near saturated profile, a few
organized storms could develop mainly during the evening hours,
capable of becoming severe, with hail up to quarter size and 50
to 60 MPH wind gusts.

A stronger upper level disturbance is then expected to track
across the high plains and into the local area during the
daytime hours Saturday, bringing a very good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to most of the area. A surface low is
eventually expected to develop and circulate just east of the
local area Saturday night, bringing additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms wrapping around this area of low
pressure Sunday. This low is then expected to push eastward and
fill on Monday with north northwesterly flow establishing itself
aloft across the plains for the remainder of the period
beginning Tuesday. This will likely advect even cooler air
across the area mid-week, with current forecast highs for both
Wednesday and Thursday mainly in the 60s, along with more
limited precip chances.

Overall, a fairly unsettled period of weather is in store for
the local area beginning this evening and continuing into Sunday
afternoon. There will likely be multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms that impact parts of the area and some beneficial
rainfall will be realized for many. WPC currently has either a
slight to marginal risk for excessive rainfall across the entire
area through Sunday, with model QPF trends having increased
significantly since yesterday, with the wettest 24 hour period
expected Saturday into Saturday night, when probs for an inch or
more of rainfall now have increased to 40-60% across the heart
of the local area. Currently, we have about an inch of
precipitation in the forecast for the Tri-Cities area for the
entire period through Monday morning, with closer to 2 inches of
precip in the forecast for areas along and east of Highway 81.
These totals are obviously areal averages, and is always the
case with thunderstorms, some areas will likely receive a bit
less, and some a bit more.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Generally poor conditions through the period as MVFR or lower
stratus will persist at both terminals with a chance for -TSRAs
increasing during the evening hours. For the remainder of this
afternoon...expect some slight improvement in CIGS with just a
VCSH or -SHRA possible through around 30/02Z...when
thunderstorm chances should begin to ramp up from the west to
northwest. Given the uncertainty in timing...have a prob30 group
for near IFR CIGS/CB/MVFR VSBYS starting at 30/02Z for KEAR and
30/04Z for KGRI. These chances should continue overnight...with
some light BR possibly developing as well...with only slight
improvement aft 30/15Z...as SHRAs and -TSRAs could extend into
the daytime hours. Winds throughout the period will be on the
light side outside of any thunderstorms...generally 10 KTS or
less and primarily out of the south.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi