775
FXUS63 KGID 011852
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
152 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Warnings and Advisories continue across the
  southeastern forecast area. Please see weather.gov/gid for
  local details and expiration times.

- Rain exits our forecast area this evening, with dry
  conditions favored through at least next Wednesday.

- Friday and Saturday morning lows can dip into the low-to-mid
  40s. Mid next week, afternoon highs can approach 80 degrees
  for our western and southern forecast area.

- Fog may be possible between 4 AM - 9 AM CDT Saturday and
  Sunday mornings. Confidence is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026


.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
Multiple Flood Warnings and Flood Advisories remain in effect
across our southeastern forecast area, with most of these to end
either late today or late Friday as water recedes and flows
downstream. Please see weather.gov/gid and click on your county
to see details on specific Flood Warnings and Advisories.

Scattered rain is anticipated to continue for our KS counties
through the remainder of today, finally tapering off by about
10:00 PM CDT this evening as our favorable back-end jet streak
and vorticity forcing finally moves off to our southeast.
Mitchell County Kansas will likely be the last to see precip
exit around this time.

Windy conditions will continue through early evening,gradually
diminishing from north to south. Sustained northeasterly winds
in the 15 - 20 mph range with gusts of 20 - 25 mph will be
possible through this evening.

Cloud cover will continue to fade this evening into tonight
from northwest to southeast. These clearing skies and calming
winds will allow our Friday morning temperatures to be much
cooler than as of late, with widespread mid-to-upper 40s
expected. Our northwestern forecast area can even see some dips
to the low 40s. While the 12z HREF keeps chances at 0%, the 13z
NBM gives western Dawson County near Lexington around a 30% to
dip into the 38 - 39 degree range by dawn Friday morning. With
temperatures like these, it is worth it to mention... frost is
NOT expected.

.FRIDAY AND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
Not much weather to discuss in the coming days! Friday will be
cooler with highs in the low-to-mid 60s, with Saturday morning
lows likely to fall to the mid 40s again. Through the weekend,
highs will likely get back into the mid-to-upper 60s. Broad
west-northwesterly flow aloft is likely to keep us dry through
at least next Wednesday. Currently, the only signals for low
precip chances would be for late Saturday evening for our far
northern forecast area, and next Tuesday. Our Saturday evening
shortwave is expected to be very dry, so without moisture this
forcing won`t matter. With regard to Tuesday, the 06z GEFS
suggests a shortwave embedded in the broader mid-level flow can
produce isolated pockets of light rain late in the day. Tuesday
itself is also likely to be the cloudiest day upcoming, but not
fully overcast. Aside from this, however, a sunny start to
October is expected!

Let`s keep an eye on Saturday and Sunday mornings for some fog
potential in our southern forecast area from roughly 4 AM - 9 AM
each morning. The 12z RRFS suggests a saturated surface
inversion during this time window each morning. This isn`t
unreasonable considering our clear skies, strong overnight
surface cooling, calmer winds, and recent rainfall. However,
this surface inversion is progged to be very shallow, and thus
any wind can halt fog formation. We`ll keep an eye on how this
trends.

Saturday and Monday have potential to be on the windier side,
with gusts in the 20 - 30 mph range especially for our northern
and western forecast area. A subtle front is expected to pass
Saturday night, which will switch us from southerly to northerly
surface flow. By Monday though, we`ll likely be back to
southerly flow, which looks to warm us up mid next week. Latest
13z NBM guidance suggests that temperatures can top 80 degrees
next Tuesday through Friday (about 50% chances) for our southern
and far western forecast area. The Tri-Cities area can see mid
70s in this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A brief couple hours of MVFR conditions are expected from 18z -
20z this afternoon. Once we get to 20z, VFR conditions are
expected to return through the remainder of the TAF period.
Through the 18z - 02z timeframe this evening, surface winds will
be stronger (15+ kts) with gusts getting up into the 25-kt
range. Winds will weaken and become variable overnight. A shift
in surface winds to southerly winds will gradually take place
late tomorrow morning into afternoon, likely in the 13z - 17z
timeframe. Winds are not expected to be strong in this period.
Of lesser importance but perhaps worthy of a mere mention, the
NAM is producing winds in the 35+ kt range in the 1,000 - 2,000
ft level from around 23z this evening through 06z FRI as the
lower-level wind maximum moves away with our exiting precip.
Given how substantially this model is an outlier, have high
confidence in no LLWS risk tonight and thus no mention in the
TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

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