485
FXUS63 KGID 202054
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
354 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temps well in the 90s/low 100s combined with dewpoints in the
  60s-70s has brought heat index values over 100 to the entire
  forecast area this afternoon. No changes made to the Heat
  Advisory, which runs through 10PM this evening.

- A gradually southward-sinking surface cold front may spark off
  a few thunderstorms late this afternoon-evening, mainly across
  northern portions of the area. Can`t rule out a few stronger
  storms, but severe weather doesn`t look likely.

- This cold front brings relief from the heat Tuesday...while
  temps are still in the 80s-90s, dewpoints are forecast to be
  lower in the 50s-near 60.

- A more active pattern develops across the Central Plains
  mainly for Wednesday-Thursday, with periodic shortwave
  disturbances bringing precipitation to the entire area. Not
  looking like a non-stop rain that entire time...but at least
  the chances have returned.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Currently...

Quiet, but toasty conditions reign across the forecast area this
afternoon...with satellite imagery showing plenty of sunshine in
place. Looking in the upper levels...a ridge of high pressure
remains the main feature for much of the central/western CONUS,
roughly centered over the central Rockies. The ridging extends
up into SW portions of Canada...with satellite imagery showing a
low pressure system working its way east into the western Great
Lakes region this afternoon. This upper level systems is
helping drive a surface cold front south through the
Plains...which is currently sitting across northern NE up into
SErn SD and MN. Ahead of this front...temps have had little
issue climbing well into the 90s to right around 100. Making
things miserable this afternoon are the dewpoints, which
currently sit in the mid 60s-low 70s...resulting in widespread
heat index values over 100 degrees. No changes made to the CWA-
wide Heat Advisory...which remains in effect until 10PM this
evening.

Late this afternoon through Tuesday...


This sfc cold front will continue to sink south through the
region this evening and tonight...and while it`s arriving too
late to provide any help with today`s temperatures, it may aid
in sparking off some thunderstorm activity later this afternoon
and evening. Satellite imagery showing a line of CU developing
from west-east along that boundary, barely along our far
northern edge. The better upper forcing is lacking across our
area...but a few isolated storms are not out of the question.
While MUCAPE values across the area are not lacking...any storms
will have to work against weaker deeper layer shear and warm
mid-level temps, so they may struggle to maintain strength. The
area is currently not outlooked by SPC for severe weather...but
any stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds, small hail
and heavy rainfall rates.

Through the overnight hours and into the morning hours on
Tuesday...there is some disagreement among models with whether
or not we see a second batch of activity develop. Model timing
in decent agreement showing the sfc front clearing the CWA to
the south between 09-12Z...with this isolated-scattered activity
developing along an elevated front lagging behind across
northern portions of the area. Because there are differences
with whether or not it occurs..kept PoPs on the lower side after
03Z around 20 percent. Have chances ending mid-morning Tuesday
with the rest of the day dry...but again there are some
uncertainties in models, some showing at least a few isolated
showers could linger longer into the day. Even if activity does
linger...not looking at appreciable rainfall amounts. Behind the
cold front, the more notable changes will be to the winds,
which look to be northeasterly through the day...and
temperatures/dew points. After the widespread 90s-low 100s
today, forecast highs for Tuesday remain in the upper 80s in the
NNE to mid 90s....not a huge change, but add in forecast
dewpoints in the 50s- near 60 vs the 60s-70s today...it makes a
difference.

Mid-week on through the weekend...

Better chances for precipitation do finally return to the
forecast...mainly during the Wednesday-Thursday night time
frame. Not expecting a non-stop rain-out or the like during
that entire period...these chances coming more in a couple of
waves. Models show the first of these shortwave upper level
disturbance working into WNW portions of the area perhaps
already as early late Tuesday night...with the better chances
through the day on Wednesday focused more across the NNWrn half
of the forecast area, with the disturbance riding more along the
edge of the ridging/NWrly flow. Disturbances moving through
later Wednesday night through Thursday look to have the
potential to dig further south into the ridging while crossing
the Rockies, helping spread those better chances further south.
Will have to see how things trend in the coming days, at this
point the overall severe threat is on the lower side...the area
not being included in any SPC outlooks through mid-week.

As we get into the end of the week-upcoming
weekend...precipitation chances look to be more sparse...as
models show that upper level ridging reamplifying across
central/western portions of the CONUS.

As far as temperatures go...with the better precipitation
chances around, forecast highs Wed-Thu are mainly in the
70s-80s...climbing back well into the 90s by the end of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Kept the
forecast dry...though there is some uncertainty in that. Models
continue to show the potential for at least isolated activity
developing later today into this evening along a southward-
sinking frontal boundary...but show things struggling to make it
too far south. Confidence in activity actually impacting the
terminal areas is a low enough at this point that mention was
left out...but trends in models will continue to be monitored.
Any cloud cover moving through is expected to remain in the
mid-upper levels. Winds this afternoon are expected to remain
generally southwesterly...turning more light/variable this
evening as that sfc boundary moves into the area. Once it
passes, winds for the remainder of the period are expected to be
north-northeasterly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP