879
FXUS63 KGID 202317
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
617 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/thunderstorms are possible (15-25%) this evening north
  of I80 and for northeastern portions of the forecast area
  tomorrow morning between 3-8AM.

- There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for strong to severe
  thunderstorms Friday evening into the overnight hours. Main
  hazards include large hail and damaging winds.

- Near-normal temperatures are expected through the forecast
  period, with peak temperatures tomorrow in the 80s-90s.

- Periodic shower/thunderstorm chances continue through next
  week, starting Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

TODAY
Weak convergence amid the NW flow aloft will allow for clear
skies and highs to increase into the 80s-low 90s this afternoon.
Within this flow aloft is a shortwave disturbance along the
MN/Canadian border, supporting a weak surface low and a weak cold
front stretched across the Dakotas. This front is expected to
move southward, potentially forcing some isolated thunderstorms
into central Nebraska after 4PM, suggested by earlier model
guidance. However, it is uncertain how far the cold front will
make it given the marginal upper-level support. In fact, recent
HRRR and RRFS guidance hast this front stalling out in Northern
Nebraska, keeping thunderstorm chances limited to North of I80.
Should a thunderstorm form, CAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg
and shear in excess of 40 kts could allow some strong to severe
storms, with main hazards being golf ball sized hail and strong
wind gusts of 60+ MPH. While a few thunderstorms are possible,
most of the area will remain dry this evening.

TOMORROW (Friday)
While not overly confident, there is a chance of
fog tomorrow morning, mainly for the eastern half of the area, with
ample low-level moisture and weak surface winds. However, model
guidance is not as aggressive with this fog as they were this
morning. The main uncertainty is the coverage of these evening
storms and if skies are able to clear for sufficient radiative
cooling. Additionally, showers/thunderstorms are possible
(15-25%) for the NE portions of the area tomorrow morning
between 3-8AM due to some weak WAA advection at 850 mb. A few of
these may be on the strong to severe side. Tomorrow afternoon
is expected to be clear and dry, allowing highs to peak in the
upper 80s to mid 90s.

Additional thunderstorms are possible tomorrow during the evening to
overnight hours. Recent model guidance suggests isolated
thunderstorm development to the North-Northwest of the area around 6-
8PM, congealing into a complex somewhere over the area. Some of
these storms may be strong to severe, as models are indicating 2500+
J/kg of SBCAPE and 45+ kt of 0-6km shear. However, the location and
timing of this thunderstorm development remains uncertain.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND
As the upper level ridge continues to expand
across the intermountain west, mostly dry conditions are
expected Saturday, with highs in the 80s. However, the chance
for showers/thunderstorms returns Saturday night into Sunday
morning as a weak shortwave emerges from the NW flow aloft.
Additional off and on showers/thunderstorms are possible into
early next week as a broader trough approaches from the West.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored throughout TAF period. A thunderstorm
near KBBW is expected to remain west of KGRI, but may clip KEAR
briefly, so a TEMPO group was included along with breezy/gusty
winds in the storm. The storm may also dissipate before reaching
KEAR, but felt current strength/track of storm warranted the
TEMPO group. Outside of the next few hours, winds become light
and variable overnight, becoming east-southeasterly Friday
afternoon. SCT-BKN mid-high level clouds are possible throughout
the TAF period.

There is a low chance for fog development tonight, but overall
chances look to be best north of KGRI/KEAR. Additionally,
isolated storms are possible Friday morning, and could impact
KGRI. There is a lot of spread in model guidance on the
location of these storms, so a PROB30 mention was omitted.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Scott
AVIATION...Davis