812
FXUS63 KGID 221139
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
639 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today through Wednesday daytime, the majority of our forecast
  area (CWA) stays mostly dry, with little more than patchy
  drizzle and/or spotty showers (limited areas of late-
  night/early AM fog also possible...mainly of the light
  variety).

- Wednesday night-Friday night still looks like a rather
  soggy/gloomy, 48-60 hour stretch...with multiple rounds of
  showers/mainly weak storms bringing a widespread 1-2" of
  CUMULATIVE rainfall to most of our area (and localized 2-3"
  amounts not out of the question).

- Despite the aforementioned high mid-late week rain chances, the
  threat for severe thunderstorms still appears fairly low for
  the most part, although there are subtle signals that just
  enough instability might try to build for a stronger storm or
  two around Fri afternoon-evening (far from a sure thing).

- The weekend looks mostly dry and warmer (giving us a chance to
  dry out some), before the next preliminary signs of fairly
  decent rain/thunderstorm chances centered on next Mon night-
  Tues night as the next large-scale upper trough moves in.

- Temperature-wise: Highs mainly 60s-70s through Friday, before
  a modest warm-up back into more 70s-80s Saturday-Monday (if
  anything, our official forecast may be aimed a bit too cool
  this weekend). Lows in the 50s-60s through the next week, with
  no sign of an early-season frost/freeze in sight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 506 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS INCLUDING
 ANYTHING BEYOND THE FIRST 36 HOURS (beyond Wednesday):

- Now having an overall-better grasp on recent forecast trends
  versus 24hrs ago, this forecaster really sees no noteworthy
  changes from previous forecast worth getting into

- Clearly the "highlight of the week" is still the various
  rounds of fairly widespread (albeit NOT non-stop) rain Wed
  night-Fri night. Probably cannot rule out some
  localized/mainly minor flooding here or there, but this
  possibility does not seem likely enough at this time to become
  worthy of formal introduction to our Hazardous Weather Outlook
  (HWOGID)...as most places should be able to handle a few
  inches of rain with few issues.

- In the short term of these next couple days, the challenges
  continue to be tricky-but-lower-impact...as cloud cover trends
  have already proven fickle this week (see yesterday/Monday
  that ended up considerably sunnier and as a result a good 4-7+
  degrees warmer than this forecaster expected)...and patchy
  drizzle and/or spotty showers make it difficult to truly
  guarantee a completely dry day/night.


-- SHORT-TERM DETAILS FOCUSED SOLELY ON THESE NEXT 36 HOURS
 (through Wed daytime):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM:
In the wake of an overall-sunnier/warmer than anticipated
Monday, a fairly widespread blanket of lower clouds has (as
expected) redeveloped and/or moved in from the northeast to
again blanket the vast majority of our CWA early this morning.
Despite these lower clouds, much of our CWA (especially counties
south of I-80) seem to have largely avoided drizzle development
this morning, but based on automated visibility obs and at least
one webcam (at Ord), some of our northern counties likely have
observed some drizzle. Fortunately, fog (particularly truly
dense/impactful fog) does not appear to be much of an issue this
morning, as any dense fog development should mainly cling to a
narrow zone along the southern/western fringes of the low
stratus..."conveniently" positioned just south-through-west of
the fringes of our CWA (although higher-res visibility progs
suggest our extreme southwest corner around Rooks County KS
bears watching, just in case.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short-term model confirm that we reside under
west-northwesterly flow...in the wake of one disturbance slowly
departing eastward across IA, and a larger scale upper low
centered over NV. At the surface, breezes are again light but
perhaps a touch steadier than 24 hours ago...mainly 3-9 MPH out
of the east-northeast. Low temperatures on track to end up very
similar to yesterday morning...most areas mid-upper 50s.


- TODAY:
Although yesterday`s greater-than-expected clearing confirms
there is some uncertainty in play in this weather pattern, "in
theory" stratus should be more stubborn today, or at least
slower to break up/scatter out. That being said, especially the
southeastern 1/3rd or so of our CWA probably stands the best
chance of seeing partly cloudy to at least briefly mostly sunny
skies at some point this afternoon...while northern/western
counties are more favored to remain cloudy/mostly cloudy.

In the mid-upper levels, we actually see some height rises/weak
ridging build in. However, there does appear to be some
subtle/sneaky lift (oriented northwest-southeast) tied to weak
mid-level warm air advection as much as anything, that could TRY
sparking off a few high-based rain showers today almost
anywhere in our CWA, but especially north of I-80. That being
said, the MAIN chance of any possible light rain today comes in
the form of possible patchy drizzle this morning, and have this
possibility mentioned in our official forecast everywhere
through mid-morning...then confined to only western areas mid-
late morning before ending.

At the surface, a slightly stronger pressure gradient between
high pressure east vs. low pressure west will drive slightly
stronger breezes mainly this afternoon...but still mainly only
sustained 7-15 MPH (a few gusts around 20 MPH far west)..out of
the east-southeast.

Finally temperature-wise, a LOT will depend on exact cloud cover
trends (see yesterday), but leaning on a multi model blend am
aiming for mid-upper 60s most Nebraska counties...to more low-
mid 70s along and especially south of the KS border.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
The vast majority of the night should remain dry, and much like
these last 24 hours, any clearing/partial clearing that develops
during the day should gradually fill back in with fairly
widespread low clouds as the night wears on. That being said,
there does appear to be a bit more dry air in the lower levels,
making drizzle look less likely overall. However, although still
fairly subtle, there does look to be a bit stronger mid-level
warm advection tonight (evident around 700 millibars), which
could kick off some spotty showers mainly in our far north
earlier in the night...but then possibly over more of our area
very late in the night (especially after 4 AM)...with the 06Z
HRRR really hitting this scenario over the eastern 1/2 to 2/3rds
of our CWA (as a result chances for isolated rain showers have
been expanded).

Otherwise, breezes overnight should remain fairly steady (at
least 5-10 MPH) out of the east-southeast, with overnight lows
again very similar to the preceding few nights (mid-upper 50s).


- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME:
During the morning, have continued slight chances for at least
isolated rain showers across mainly the eastern 1/2 of the CWA
in response to the aforementioned weak mid-level lift. However,
the afternoon looks mainly-to-completely dry as we await the
arrival of the first in our "parade" of upper disturbances
lifting out of the Desert Southwest to arrive Wed night. At the
surface, it will become a bit breezier yet...most areas
sustained 10-20 MPH out of the southeast with higher gusts
(strongest speeds west). Temperature-wise, there is higher
confidence versus today that especially the afternoon should
feature partly cloudy to even mostly sunny skies following a
mostly cloud start. As a result, high temps are aimed 3-8
degrees warmer than today most places...but ranging from upper
60s-low 70s northeast...to mainly mid-upper 70s southwest
(perhaps even some low 80s especially Rooks/Phillips counties).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.Today and Tonight...
Scattered light rain chances will continue particularly across
our northeastern CWA as a small vort max and associated jet
streak exits off to the east through late evening. While a rogue
lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out with complete
confidence owing to a small amount of CAPE, precip is expected
to stay predominantly stratiform in nature for this same reason.
Northerly winds of 5 - 10 mph will keep temperatures cooler in
the 60s to low 70s on the Nebraska side with relatively higher
temps in the upper 70s for our Kansas counties through the rest
of the day. Overnight, winds will shift slightly to east-
northeasterly, and an isolated light shower will remain possible
mainly south and west of Kearney and Hastings. Misty conditions
will also be possible overnight and into Tuesday morning
(mainly for our northern counties up near Ord) owing to
saturated low levels, but no fog-like reductions in visibility
are expected from this. Lows tonight will span from the low to
upper 50s across our area from north to south, respectively.

.Tuesday...
Temps on Tuesday will stay in the mid 60s to low 70s. Isolated
light showers remain in the forecast mainly for our northwestern
CWA as mid-level flow rounds the crest of a low-amplitude
ridge. The best timeframe for light precip looks to be in the
evening hours as the LLJ begins to refire out over western
Nebraska. Latest 12z HREF guidance suggests that Tuesday night`s
LLJ will reach up to 35+ kts. This, coupled with low-level warm
air advection, is progged to provide enough lift for a couple
rounds of showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Lightning potential remains uncertain with this overnight
activity, with the 12z HRRR suggesting MUCAPE on the order of
200 - 300 J/kg, while the 12z RRFS keeps instability at
virtually zero. Regardless, there is high confidence in no
strong to severe activity. Overnight lows will again stay in the
low to upper 50s.

.Wednesday...
Isolated to scattered light showers will remain possible
through morning and early afternoon on Wednesday as
southeasterly surface winds beneath southwesterly flow aloft
return on the backside of Tuesday`s ridge. During the daylight
hours, best chances for precip look to be west of Kearney and
north of I-80. Wind gusts north and west of Kearney can reach 30
mph on Wednesday afternoon. Once we get past sundown on
Wednesday evening, the pattern look to shift towards more
widespread rain as the next persistent jet sits atop our CWA
through Saturday.

.Thursday and Beyond...
Latest EPS and GEFS guidance suggests that after daybreak on
Thursday, a 500-mb jet streak to our north will pull away from
central Nebraska while the northern gradient of a second jet
maximum remains nearly stationary over our area along the crest
of a ridge. Beneath this mid-level jet, repeating bouts of warm-
air advection associated with embedded shortwaves will continue
to provide forcing for multiple rounds of rainfall. Latest
guidance suggests break periods in the rain will be possible,
but any precise timing will need to be ironed out as we get
closer. Indications are that this persistent rain pattern will
likely come to an end around Saturday morning. Total rainfall in
this period of 1 to 1.75 inches will be possible.

Lastly, the weekend is expected to bring back warmer
temperatures yet again, with SAT-through-MON highs in the mid to
upper 70s on the Nebraska side, and the low-to-mid 80s on the
Kansas side (13z NBM guidance indicates 20 - 30% chances for our
KS counties to see weekend highs >85 F). Thankfully, there is
high confidence that heat indices will not be a concern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
The majority of the period (roughly 16 of the 24 hours) is
expected to feature sub-VFR ceiling (mix of IFR/MVFR).
Visibility should stay VFR for the most part, and it should also
stay rain-free at least the vast majority of the time, although
some patchy light drizzle or even a spotty light shower cannot
be ruled out at times (probability of occurrence does not appear
high enough to warrant TAF inclusion). As for winds, they will
not be much of issue overall, with sustained speeds the majority
of hte period at-or-below 10KT as direction gradually shifts
from more easterly to more southeasterly. However, especially
KEAR will get a touch breezier late tonight into early Wed AM
(gust potential up to around 17KT).

- Ceiling details:
This is by far the main issue/challenge of the period. Right out
of the gate this morning, both KGRI/KEAR have a low-IFR ceiling
(flirting with LIFR). However, as the morning wears on this
ceiling should gradually rise to at least low-end MVFR (by
around 15/16Z) and eventually rise to at least low-end VFR (or
perhaps even scatter out altogether) by sometime mid-late
afternoon. VFR should then stick around through much of the
evening before a potentially abrupt return to most likely IFR
returns around and especially after 06Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Began
AVIATION...Pfannkuch