381
FXUS63 KGID 172344
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may become strong to
  marginally severe with hail up to quarter size and wind gusts
  up to 60 mph. Confidence is low (15% to 20%) concerning severe
  potential.

- Temperatures will heat up Friday and Saturday with highs in
  the upper 90s to around 106 degrees with heat index values
  similar or slightly higher.

- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast for Sunday
  evening into Monday in advance of an approaching cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Today and tonight...

Some shortwave troughs are moving across the central Plains in the
flow aloft with an upper low over Nebraska. A cold front is
currently positioned in central/southern Kansas with a surface high
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas.
Showers are currently moving across portions of north central Kansas
and south central Nebraska. Thunderstorms are currently across
central and eastern Nebraska and may develop into portions of south
central Nebraska. Some of these storms may become strong to
marginally severe this afternoon and evening with hail up to
quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Temperatures today are cooler
behind the front with highs expected to be in the mid/upper 70s to
lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will decrease across the area
tonight with low temperatures in the mid 50s to low/mid 60s.

Wednesday through Thursday night...

South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be
on the backside of an upper trough on Wednesday with northerly winds
across the area. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally range
from the lower to mid 80s with a surface high still in place. There
is a slight chance (15% to 20%) of showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday but generally expect dry conditions during the afternoon.
Southerly winds will return to the area Wednesday night with lows in
the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds will increase out of the south on
Thursday as a surface trough develops across western Nebraska and
eastern Colorado. An upper ridge will extend from southern Texas to
Kansas and Nebraska on Thursday. These conditions will result in
warming temperatures on Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Winds will stay gusty out of the south Thursday night with low
temperatures in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s.

Friday through Monday...

The upper ridge will extend from the Gulf Coast to the central
Plains and Midwest on Friday. Winds across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas will strengthen out of the south
to southwest Friday afternoon as a surface trough strengthens to the
west and north of the area. Skies across the area on Friday will be
sunny to mostly sunny. These conditions will result in temperatures
heating up into the upper 90s to near/around 106 degrees on Friday.
Heat index values will be similar or a couple of degrees hotter.
Southerly winds will continue Friday night with low temperatures in
the 70s with some places in the upper 70s. The upper ridge will
shift slightly eastward on Saturday with gusty southerly winds
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas.
Temperatures and heat index values on Saturday will be similar to
those on Friday. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the mid
to upper 70s. Gusty, southerly winds will again be present on
Sunday. A big upper trough will be present across much of the
western half of the country on Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday are
expected to be a little cooler than those the previous two days but
will still be in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible (15% to 35%) Sunday evening and night
as a cold front moves toward the area. Low temperatures Sunday night
will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The front may stall across the
area on Monday with more showers and storms developing with
temperatures cooling some from the previous day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

SHRAs and TSRAs are starting to intensify as an upper level
disturbance approaches the local area. Expect this area of
SHRAs and TSRAs to continue to fill in and potentially reach the
terminals as early as 18/04-06Z. Confidence is not high enough
for a prevailing -TSRA group in TAFS, but included a prob30
group for about 6 hours at each site as there should be a period
where both terminals are impacted. CIGS will also lower to MVFR
levels with this activity...around 3KFT...with MVFR VSBYs in
SHRAs and TSRAs as well. This disturbance will be exiting the
local area by daybreak, with MVFR conditions returning by 18/12Z
along with light ENE winds that could gust as high as 16 KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Rossi