626
FXUS63 KGID 152122
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
422 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers/weak storms through early evening. Better
  chance for at least scattered storms tonight after midnight,
  esp. for areas along/S of the state line. Some storms may be
  strong to marginally severe, with wind gusts of 50-60 MPH the
  primary threat.

- Mainly dry on Sunday with pleasant temperatures in the upper
  70s-80s. Next chance for showers/storms comes late Sunday
  night and into Monday morning.

- Fairly active pattern continues through at least the first
  half of the new work week. Some of the storms late Monday and
  on Tuesday may be strong to severe.

- Temperatures next week will oscillate back and forth between
  the upper 70s to upper 90s - warmest on Tuesday (esp. KS
  zones), and coolest on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A weak upper disturbance (MCV) left over from last night`s
convection continues to gradually shear out/weaken as it slides
NE into the Siouxland region. There has been just enough lift on
the tail end of this wave to spark some isolated to widely
scattered showers over N zones. Another area of isolated
development has been along/E of a weak convergent zone (subtle
mixing boundary?) mainly E of Hwy 281 where atmosphere is quite
juicy with temps in upper 80s and dew points in mid 70s. Hard to
see either area really taking off next few hours in terms of
coverage or intensity given what should be gradually increasing
subsidence as what`s left of the aforementioned upper wave moves
even further away.

Upper pattern remains generally unchanged from 24-48 hours
ago...so expect at least scattered convection to develop all
along the Front Range this afternoon, then move E onto the
Plains this evening and overnight. Recent CAMs (including 12Z
HREF and 18Z HRRR) have been placing the highest chances and
strongest activity across KS - closer to the main baroclinic
zone evident in sfc obs - running SW to NE across the state.
This boundary, along with overnight LLJ, should help focus one
or two MCSs overnight and into early Sunday morning. Similar to
past few nights, appears the most robust activity will tend to
favor areas W and SW of the local area, but still...lingering
MUCAPE and system organization (additional MCVs?) should carry
at least a low-end damaging wind threat into mainly our KS zones
after midnight tonight. Believe we`re seeing the beginning of
such MCS development over SE Colorado now.

Besides perhaps some lingering showers in SE zones early in the
morning, the brunt of the daytime hours Sunday appear dry and
pleasant...besides the usual/seasonable humidity. Should see
decreasing clouds through the day and highs top out in a very
comfortable range in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Very nice way to
end the weekend!

Upper pattern looks to make a slight transition from mainly
SW/zonal as it is weekend to mainly zonal/NW for at least the
first half of next week. This will be in response to a deepening
upper low around the Hudson Bay in Canada and moderate ridging
again asserting itself over the Desert SW. This will favor
frequent chances for storms as the Canadian low forces a cold
front into the region late Mon/Tue that then stalls out
somewhere over the Central Plains through midweek. Frequent
weak waves interacting with this front...along with the upslope
flow along the Front Range behind the front...should provide
the necessary lift for at least scattered storms each afternoon
that then roll E during the evening and overnight - perhaps
aided at times by a nocturnal low level jet. This is the BROAD
idea of what the pattern should look like, but of course, the
"devil is in the details".

Monday daytime hours should be mainly dry for most, if not all,
locations as the primary area for development looks to be over
north central Nebraska. Some of this activity could slide SE
into the local area during the late evening and overnight and
pose a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe wind
gusts (50-60 MPH). Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the
week, but specifics will depend on timing and placement of the
cold front. KS zones have the best chance to remain ahead of the
front through peak heating, and the latest forecast there is for
very warm highs in the upper 90s. Tuesday looks to feature the
best chances for late afternoon and evening development overhead
along the boundary, and the latest SPC Day 4 outlook implies
Slight Risk level severe probabilities (level 2 of 5). This
threat will obviously be refined in the coming days.

Wednesday currently looks to be the coolest day of the week
behind the front and perhaps in quite a bit of lingering cloud
cover. Ensembles generally indicate declining rain chances late
next week and gradually recovering temperatures - though
confidence on specifics this far out is quite low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Rest of today: Have some patches of SCT-BKN stratocu with bases
in the MVFR range this afternoon, probably moreso for GRI than
EAR. Out of this stratocu could come an isolated shower/weak
storm during the late afternoon hours. Kept the PROB30 group
going for GRI, but took out of EAR given ensembles suggesting
the threat remaining mostly NE-E of there. Winds will be light
out of the NW to NNE.

Tonight-Sun AM: Latest guidance continues to suggest the
greatest chances for convection this period will remain off to
the S, with probably just some mid to high cloud blowoff from
this activity. The mid/high clouds could dissipate just in time
around dawn Sun AM to allow for some fog. Hinted at this with a
5SM group beginning around 11Z, but this is pretty low
confidence. Brief period of MVFR CIGs also possible very late in
the period - late Sun AM - from more stratocu, but will let
later forecasts refine this and kept as SCT020 for now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies