382
FXUS63 KGID 252338
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
638 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms work their way
  northeast into and through the forecast area through tonight.
  While severe weather is not expected, some locations could
  potentially pick up another 1-2 inches...and may lead to some
  flooding issues if over areas that already picked up 2-5
  inches over the last 2 days.

- Chances for isolated-scattered activity lingers into the day
  on Saturday, mainly focused across ares east of Highway 281.
  Things finally dry out for Sunday.

- Much of the day on Monday currently looks dry, but another low
  pressure system digging south along the West Coast will
  eventually work its way through the heart of the area in the
  Tue-Thu timeframe. Depending on the model, activity could
  linger around even into Friday. Plenty of details to iron out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data continuing to show southwesterly
flow in place this afternoon across the area...set up between
high pressure sitting over the TX Gulf Coast, with ridging
extending northward through through MN, and troughing over the
western CONUS. This troughing is being driven by a couple of
systems, one just working its way into the Pac NW, the other
making its way northeast out of the Desert SW/Srn Plains. During
the daytime hours so far today...any scattered showers had
pushed east during the early morning hours, with little other
than drizzle left behind. This has mainly affected the ENE half
of the forecast area...where satellite has shown more stubborn
cloud cover and area obs have shown ceilings remaining under 1k
ft. Winds across the area remain south- southeasterly, and
overall light, as we remain between sfc high pressure over much
of the eastern CONUS and troughing/low pressure through the High
Plains into TX. By the time its all said and done, forecast
highs won`t work out too bad...NErn areas under more cloud cover
have struggled to get out of the mid 60s, further south has had
a few peaks of sun, and lower-mid 70s have worked their way in.

This evening through the weekend...

Seeing some showers and storms moving northward through south-
southwestern KS, driven by increased lift associated with that
upper level shortwave disturbance roughly in the NM/CO/OK/TX
border area. Models remain in good agreement showing this
disturbance continuing on that northeastward track, bringing
increasing chances for precip to the forecast area this
evening/tonight. Aided later this evening by an increasing
SSWrly low-level jet, forecast has pretty high chances going
(70-90 percent)...with models continuing to focus the overall
best chances roughly over central/eastern portions of the
forecast area. Will be better chances for thunderstorms, with
models showing perhaps up to 1000 j/kg nosing into the
area...and while some storms could be on the stronger side, the
overall threat for severe weather remains low. The main concern
with these precip chances would be with the additional
rainfall...if areas heavier rates happen to track over any areas
that were part of the swath of 3-5 inches from the past 2 days,
could result in some flooding concerns.

Through the overnight hours into Saturday morning...if the
higher res models hold onto their trend, have the higher
precipitation chances hanging on too long in the forecast. Have
60+ percent chances lingering across areas east of HWY 281
through sunrise Saturday...some models say activity cloud push
east by closer to 09Z. This is talking showers/storms...not the
potential fog/drizzle/low ceilings that could linger hours
longer.

Have diminishing preciptiation chances during the day on
Saturday...but couldn`t totally dry out the afternoon hours, as
models have been pretty persistent showing another weaker push
of mid-upper level potentially sparking off some afternoon
showers/storms across areas mainly east of Highway 281.
Especially for the western half of the forecast area...models
showing better potential for more sun...the further east you go,
that will be tougher to do, especially with the chance for
additional precip developing during the afternoon. Because of
that uncertainty with clouds/precip, not a ton of confidence in
the forecast highs for Saturday...which currently sit in the low
70s in the NE to low 80s in the far SSW.

Forecast finally dries out for Sunday...and models remain in
good agreement with that, as upper level ridging builds in
across the area...set up between areas of low pressure affecting
each coast. Expecting generally partly cloudy skies, highs
mainly in the 70s.

New work week...

This upper level ridging centered through the Plains is short-
lived, with models in good agreement showing southwesterly
flow returning on Monday, driven by that western CONUS upper low
that looks to dig into southern CA. Models showing that as that
low digs further south, a separate northern stream shortwave
disturbance will be pushing through the Central/Nrn Rockies will
help drive increasing precipitation chances. Do still have a
small area of low chances (20 percent) over far WNW portions of
the area Monday afternoon, but the overall better chances look
to hold off until Monday evening- overnight.

A potentially more active/wet period returns from Tuesday
on...still plenty of things to iron out in the coming days.
Will say that compared to 24hrs ago, there is better agreement
between models with the main upper low, its evolution and trek
across the Central Plains. At 12Z Tuesday, this upper low looks
to be roughly in the CA/AZ/NV border area...trekking further
into AZ/NM by sunrise Wednesday...then turning a bit more
northeast into CO by 12Z Thursday. Additional shortwave
disturbances out ahead of the system, and eventually just
greater larger-scale lift as it be moves in keep precipitation
chances around each day through the mid-week...and because there
are details to iron out, those chances are very broad in
nature. Later Wednesday and more into Thursday the upper low
itself looks to cross through the Central Plains...but the exact
track/timing needs some refinement in the coming days.
Agreement with the track isn`t too bad, potentially bringing the
upper low right over the forecast area...differences are larger
with the timing...as the ECMWF is much slower, keeping it
around well into Friday, vs the GFS which largely clears the
forecast area Thursday night. This could be another longer
duration, heavier rain maker...will just have to see how models
trend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR to LIFR conditions are expected from this evening through
16z SAT owing to overnight rain, thunderstorms, and patches of
mist / fog. The best timing for thunderstorms as opposed to
plain rain will be from 03z - 07z. Pockets of lingering mist and
fog can also continue through around 16z on SAT, which would
keep conditions LIFR. Saturday afternoon looks to erode our
persistent stratus deck to MVFR levels, however a few
thunderstorms will be possible through evening. Some capping
looks to be a potential issue with these storms` development, so
have utilized PROB30 for this group. Surface winds will stay
between southerly and southeasterly and will remain weak through
Saturday afternoon, but become variable on Saturday evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Began