870
FXUS63 KGID 151114
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
614 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid weather continues Today and Monday.

- Thunderstorm chances Tonight, Monday evening/night, and
  Tuesday. A few of these storms could be severe, capable of
  damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Warmest temperatures of the year arrive Friday-Next weekend as highs
  climb into the mid 90s to low 100s, with heat index values
  near 100s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Today...

Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the mid 60s under
partly-mostly clear skies. A MCV is tracking across far southwestern
portions of the area, but any precipitation around this is minimal.
A complex of thunderstorms is currently tracking along the
NE/SD border.

The upper level pattern remains similar to previous days, with a
trough over the West Coast and a ridge over the Great Plains. Warm
weather is expected today, as highs climb into the upper 80s/low
90s. Most if not all of the area will dry through the daytime hours
today, as the atmosphere looks to remain capped.

Focus turns to the west late this evening/overnight for the
potential for thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
over eastern CO/Western WY during the afternoon/evening hours. CAM
guidance continues to struggle with consensus for how
widespread this will be as well as the evolution of storms as
they move east. One set of solutions shows the area remaining
entirely free of precipitation as storms either dissipate before
reaching the area, or track south/north of the area. Another
potential solution is for a decaying MCS to move through the
area. Given how previous nights have unfolded under similar
conditions, and the expected timing of storms (after midnight),
tend to think only western portions of the area carry a risk for
a marginally severe storm despite the entire area being
outlined in the Day 1 SPC outlook. If a strong/marginally severe
storm is able to enter western portions of the area, it would
carry the potential for gusts around 60mph and hail up to
quarter size.

Monday...

Any rain will come to an end Monday morning, with mostly sunny skies
expected during the day. Highs will rise into the 90s, with
southerly winds gusting 20-25mph. Thunderstorms are expected to
initiate off of a cold front in southern South Dakota late Monday
afternoon/early evening. These storms are expected to become
strong-severe, tracking into northern portions of the area
during the late evening/early overnight hours. CAPE and shear
will be sufficient for severe thunderstorms, but increasing
inhibition as storms move south/southeast may mean a fairly
short window of severe potential. Scattered storms will
continue through the overnight hours, with a more widespread
chance for precipitation than the last few days.

Tuesday...

A stronger shortwave trough will break down the ridge on Tuesday, as
a cold front slowly moves through the area on Tuesday. The cold
front will likely enter south/southeastern portions of the area
during the afternoon hours. North of the front temperatures will be
noticeably cooler, in the upper 70s to low 80s, with temperatures
climbing near 90 south of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to
erupt along the front Tuesday afternoon. SBCAPE values nearing 4000
J/Kg and shear of 35kts will be supportive of severe thunderstorm
development. Model trends over the past few days have steadily
shifted the cold front further south. If this trend continues, the
front will be south of the forecast area by thunderstorm initiation,
and we would "miss out" on the greater severe potential. A few post
frontal storms are also possible late Tuesday afternoon/evening due
to cooler temperatures aloft. While instability will be weaker (1000-
2000 J/Kg) it will be sufficient for a few strong-marginally
severe storms.

Wednesday...

Any lingering rain will exit the area by the early morning hours on
Wednesday as skies clear throughout the day. Another cooler day is
expected behind the cold front, and under the base of a passing
shortwave trough. Highs will be near their climatological normals,
in the low to mid 80s.

Thursday Onwards...

Ridging will quickly build back over the area on Thursday, with
ridging strengthening as we move into next weekend. This will
bring the warmest temperatures of the year so far. Highs look to
be in at least the mid 90s, with the potential for the first
100s of the year for portions of the area. Heat index values
will also near the 100s. Model guidance has remained consistent
in highlighting this period of warm temperatures, with NAEFS and
GEFS standardized anomalies of 2-3 deviations above normal at
850 and 700mb. The NWS heat risk product also highlights this
well, which shows potential for major heat impacts on Friday and
Saturday (due to a combination of "early" heat and actual
values). Overall, the first shot of 100 degree days looks be on
the horizon, and those with heat related concerns will want to
keep a close eye on the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions likely through TAF period. FEW-SCT high level
clouds are expected into the overnight hours. Southerly winds
will increase to around 10kts late this morning, becoming light
and variable again this evening.

There is a chance (15-20%) for thunderstorms after midnight, but
uncertainty remains on how far east storms will make it, and how
strong it would be. Confidence is too low to include in the TAF
at this time. The most likely time of storms would be 08-12z
Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis