621
FXUS63 KGID 300556
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated to scattered non-severe storms will
  occasionally pass through mainly eastern and southeast
  portions of the area tonight into Thursday morning. The best
  potential will peak thursday morning.

- An even more organized cluster of potentially strong to severe
  storms, will pass from northwest to southeast across the area
  between mainly 7PM and 1AM Thursday night.

- The strongest storms Thursday evening/night may bring
  damaging wind gusts up to 60-70MPH, hail up to the size of
  quarters and locally heavy rainfall.

- The next chance of precipitation (15-50%) does not come until
  Tuesday night.

- Highs over the weekend will mainly range the 80s, with a mini
  warm up heading into the start of next week (upper 80s and
  90s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026


Following the widespread thunder showers this morning, precipitation
chances have generally plummeted for the rest of the day (only 10-
30%; concentrated towards the far eastern and southern portions of
the area). The coverage of any overnight to Friday morning non-
severe storm activity, will primarily impact the eastern to
southeast half of the area (mainly areas east/southeast of the Tri-
Cities). The HRRR and NAMNEST high-resolution models have recently
began to show increasing potential for a broader coverage of these
shower and weak thunderstorms during the the Thursday AM period,
mainly across eastern Nebraska and central and eastern Kansas.
Though precipitation totals are not expected to surpass this
morning`s amounts, locally up to just over 1" of rainfall may be
possible in places through the morning. The better storm potential,
however, will not come until the evening hours.

A mid-to-upper level shortwave trough ejecting out from the northern
Rockies tomorrow will bring some mid-level vorticity and cold air
advection to the region, helping to increase instability and
buoyancy (2,000-3,500J/kg of MUCAPE) across the area. In addition,
surface pressure falls ahead of the shortwave disturbance, will help
organize an around 1006mb surface cyclone across north central
Nebraska and central South Dakota. As this cyclone strengthens
across the afternoon and evening hours, a surface cold front will
undergoing frontogenesis across central Nebraska/Kansas. This
feature will likely serve as the primary mechanism for evening
thunderstorm development, likely driving a line of convection across
a majority of the area from northwest to southeast between mainly
7PM and 1AM. Given the high instability (>2,000J/kg of CAPE),
steepening low-level lapse rates (up to 8-9C/km) and 25-40kts of
bulk shear (EBWD); the potential for severe weather will remain. The
main concern would be for strong to damaging wind gusts as high as
60-70MPH. Though not the primary concern, a few of the stronger
storms may still be able to grow tall enough to form hail stones up
to the size of quarters. The Storm Prediction Center includes the
full area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) with most of central
Nebraska areas near and north of I-80 included in a slight risk
(level 2 of 5).

Beyond the chance for precipitation Thursday, winds out of the
southeast may become breezy at times, gusting as high as 20-30MPH
during the afternoon hours. Highs, despite the mostly cloudy to
overcast skies will still be expected to raise as high as the upper
80s and 90s. Following the exit of the storms Thursday night, the
forecast remains dry through at least Monday (20-50% precipitation
chance returns Tuesday night). Southwest U.S. ridging across the
weekend will help fend off most precipitation chances as the jet
stream is shoved further northward. Breezy conditions will be
expected to return Friday afternoon (northerly gusts as high as 25-
35MPH) as the surface low pull east and away. lighter winds over the
weekend will come as higher pressure resettles back into region.
Temperatures behind the front Friday and Saturday should drop back
down to the 80s. Warming temperatures in response to clearing skies,
will warm temperatures back up to the upper 80s to mid 90s for the
start off next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Complex TAF period given recent development of IFR/LIFR stratus,
along with potential for scattered thunderstorms this morning
and again this evening.

In the near term...satellite trends suggest, and recent sfc obs
confirm, some rapid development of IFR to LIFR stratus in the
EAR area. Short term guidance such as the HRRR are not handling
this well...but there are some indications of this threat on
recent RAP and NAMNest runs. These models expand the stratus
this morning and persist it all the way through 15-17Z. As such,
have deteriorated the TAFs quite significantly with this update,
and have the stratus expanding into GRI by around 09Z. In
addition to the stratus, there`s also the potential for
scattered elevated convection and brief heavy downpours. Models
don`t have as much coverage as last night, so tough to pin down
a specific few hour time period. Therefore, have opted to
continue the PROB30 group and will amend to TEMPO once
development appears more imminent.

Stratus should gradually lift and scatter through the morning,
but may not return to VFR until around midday. The next chance
for storms look to arrive along a front in the 01Z to 06Z (Fri)
time frame. This activity could contain some gusty winds.

Non-thunderstorm winds will be out of the SE throughout the
period, becoming a bit breezy this afternoon with gusts around
20kt. A wind shift to the NW is likely Thursday night.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Thies