767
FXUS63 KGID 170850
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
350 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Activity early this morning will continue sliding east,
  eventually diminishing/pushing out of the forecast area. Once
  it does, dry conditions are forecast for the rest of the day.
  Highs today remain below normal in the mid 70s for most, with
  winds turning more ESE, speeds around 10-15 MPH.

- Periodic disturbances continue to bring thunderstorm chances
  to the region through the weekend, with the overall best
  chances being Friday evening-night and again Saturday evening-
  night...though some uncertainties between models still remain.
  Both of those periods will have the potential to have some
  strong-severe storms. Lower confidence chances continue on
  into the middle of next week.

- High temperatures waste no time warming back up, with mid 80s
  to mid-upper 90s Friday-Sunday, and potentially warmer Monday-
  Wednesday. Monday-Wednesday currently has widespread heat
  index values in the upper 90s to near 105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Currently...

No notable changes in the upper level pattern across the region
early this morning...upper air and satellite data show continued
zonal flow, setup between high pressure over central/eastern
portions of the southern CONUS and ares of low pressure over the
Hudson Bay area and western Canada. Radar imagery showing
scattered thunderstorms continuing to gradually push east across
much of the northern half of KS down into the SW corner...tied
to a mid-level shortwave disturbance crossing the region. At the
surface, the main frontal boundary remains well south of the
forecast area...currently draped roughly from the panhandle of
TX up into east-central KS, while high pressure is settling
south through the Nrn Plains. This is keeping winds early this
morning northeasterly, with speeds mainly around 10 MPH.
Satellite imagery showing mostly cloudy-overcast skies across
the area, with most automated sites showing ceilings around
1500-3000ft...keeping temps fairly steady in the low-mid 60s for
most.

Today through Friday night...

Some isolated/scattered precipitation may lingering into the
mid-morning hours this morning...but once this activity
wanes/slides off to the east, models are in pretty good
agreement keeping the rest of today into this evening dry.
Expect little change in the zonal flow aloft, with the next
disturbance to potentially impact the area moving through
portions of CO during the day. Surface high pressure currently
centered over the Dakotas is expected to continue to sink SSE
with time, eventually centered east of the MO River by late this
afternoon. Between this and low pressure starting to develop
over portions of the High Plains, winds today will be gradually
turning more east, then southeasterly. Speeds remain on the
lighter side, mainly around 10-15 MPH. No notable changes were
made to forecast highs for today, which remain in the mid-70s
for most spots, well below the normal for this time of year in
the mid-80s to low-90s.

Late tonight into the day on Friday...confidence in
precipitation chances is not high, as plenty of differences
remain between models. Another embedded shortwave disturbance
looks to push out of the CO Rockies and onto portions of the
Central Plains...and the forecast has precipitation chances
increasing across southern portions of the area after 06Z.
Differences remain with the amount of forcing there is...and
thus vary with the amount of precipitation that swings through.
Some of the high-res models have little/if any QPF around,
others are more generous...but because of these differences,
chances remain low in the 20-30 percent range, mainly focused
across southern and eastern portions of the area. Winds for
Friday turn more southerly, but are still on the lighter side,
peaking around 15 MPH. The cooler temps of Thursday are short-
lived, with Friday highs back in the mid 80s to low 90s.

For Friday evening-overnight, attention focuses further
north...where another round of thunderstorms is expected to
develop and potentially impact portions of the forecast area.
Activity is expected to fire late in the day along a sfc trough
axis extending through portions of north central NE/south
central SD...with the main question then being how things evolve
during the evening/overnight hours. The best chances (40-50
percent) of storms is focused across areas mainly north of I-80,
then east of HWY 281...but if trends in many of the current
models holds, those chances would be too broad/too far south.
Forcing aloft is not overly notable, and the southern extent
would have warmer mid-level temps/capping to deal with...so
latest trend is a drier one for our CWA. What storms do develop
have sufficient shear/instability for strong-severe storms to be
a concern...and areas north of I-80 are included in the SPC Day
2 Marginal Risk. Large hail/damaging winds would be the main
hazards.

This weekend into the middle of next week...

Overall, not a ton of change with the forecast for the mid-
latter portions of this 7-day period. Looking at the broader
picture, models remain in pretty good agreement continuing to
show generally zonal flow in the upper levels across the
region...with high pressure potentially trying to build north
early-mid work week, but there doesn`t look to be any shortage
of disturbances present trying to keep things from amplifying.
These periodic disturbances continue to bring chances for
thunderstorms each day this weekend on through the middle of the
week...much of the daytime hours likely dry, better chances
focused on the evening-overnight hours. Next best chances come
Saturday evening-night as this next wave moves through...and
can`t rule out some storms being strong-severe, and most of our
south central NE counties are included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal
Risk area. Hard to have a high degree of confidence in
timing/location details of any of these disturbances the further
out in time you go...and chances Sunday and on are only 20
percent.

As far as temperatures go, highs in the mid 80s to mid-upper 90s
are expected from north-south this weekend...potentially
climbing further into the 90s to low 100s for the first half of
the new work week. Current forecast has widespread heat index
values in the upper 90s to near 105 for Mon-Wed. Still a lot of
time to see how the pattern and temps trend before then.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather is forecast for this TAF period. Cloud cover through
the early morning hours is tricky, as there are patches of MVFR
ceilings and spots where some clearing is improving things to
VFR. Some model time heights keep the low ceilings and stratus
pretty solidly an issue through the first half of the
day...other models are quicker to scatter ceilings out. Have the
forecast on the pessimistic side this morning, with a tempo
group of scattered ceilings. By around midday and through the
rest of this period, have VFR conditions. Winds start this
period NNErly with speeds around 10 MPH. After sunrise and
through the rest of the period, winds are expected turn more
easterly, then southeasterly. Speeds expected to top out around
10-15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP