890
FXUS63 KGID 140532
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1232 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are expected to move into western portions of
  the forecast area anytime from around midnight to 4 AM. Some
  of these storms may be severe with hail up to the size of
  quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- There is a low (around a 20% chance) threat of severe storms
  Saturday and Sunday. There is a higher threat (around a 40%
  chance) of severe storms on Tuesday.

- High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid/upper
  90s. Low temperatures will range from the mid 50s to low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Today and tonight...

An upper level trough is centered over Missouri and Arkansas. Winds
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas
are mostly light and variable. High temperatures today will range
from the mid 80s to low 90s. A shortwave will move into the area
this evening into tonight with showers and thunderstorms approaching
from the west this evening into late tonight. Models differ on when
the storms will enter the western portion of the forecast area. One
model shows the storms entering the area around midnight and another
around 4 AM. The timing of the storms will depend on the timing of
the shortwave. It is also unclear as to whether storms will still be
severe when they enter the forecast area but the potential (around
30% chance) is there for severe weather. The main threats will be
hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...

Storms will likely still be ongoing Saturday morning with possible
redevelopment later in the day behind the initial complex of storms.
One of the models shows these storms lingering into the afternoon
hours. These storms on Saturday (both in the morning and afternoon
hours) may be strong to severe given high moisture values and fairly
high instability. The only limiting factor is fairly low to modest
wind shear. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats with
these storms. The storms will likely be out of the area by the early
evening hours with another potential round of storms moving into the
area late Saturday night/early Sunday morning with the arrival of
another shortwave. These storms are not as likely to be severe as
the storms the previous night (tonight) given low wind shear and
CAPE, but there is a small chance (around 15%) that some storms
could be strong to marginally severe. High temperatures on Saturday
will be in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s and low temperatures
Saturday night will be in the 60s.

Sunday through Monday night...

Some showers and storms may still be ongoing Sunday morning but are
expected to mostly clear out of the area by Sunday afternoon. There
is a small chance (15% to 35%) of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon with the presence of a shortwave. High temperatures on
Sunday will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Low temperatures Sunday
night will be in the 60s. Showers and thunderstorms may develop
Sunday night across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas as southeast winds bring in more low-level moisture.
A surface trough will develop across western Kansas, western
Nebraska, and eastern Colorado Monday afternoon. Winds across south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be out of
the south to southeast. Temperatures on Monday are expected to warm
up into the upper 80s to mid/upper 90s. Storms may develop out west
along the surface trough by early evening. Showers and thunderstorms
may impact the area Monday night as a shortwave moves across
northern Nebraska. Low temperatures Monday night will range from the
low 60s to low 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday...

An upper trough is expected to move over portions of Nebraska and
Kansas on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
area during the day and into the evening and possibly overnight
hours. Severe storms will be a threat due to high instability and
fairly high wind shear. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the
low 80s to mid 90s. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the
mid/upper 50s to mid 60s. The upper trough will shift a little
further east on Wednesday with rain and storm chances (15% to near
30%) coming to an end. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the
upper 70s to mid/upper 80s. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be
in the mid 50s to mid 60s. An upper ridge will begin to build on
Thursday from the Desert Southwest to the southern and central
Plains. Temperatures on Thursday are expected to warm up into the
mid 80s to low/mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Thunderstorms are
ongoing across western Nebraska. These storms are expected to
either dissipate or remain southwest of KEAR/KGRI. Winds will be
light and variable through sunset, but mainly be southerly.
Winds will increase during the late morning hours, with
sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts of 15-20kts during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will decrease below
10kts after sunset. SCT-BKN clouds around 150-200 are expected
throughout the TAF period. A rogue storm during the
afternoon/evening can`t be completely ruled out (10-20%), but
confidence in occurrence or placement of any storm is too low
to include a prob30 group. Additional thunderstorms will move in
from the west just outside of the TAF period but confidence in
details remains low.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Davis